關稅有多重要？

該社論來自上週的《評論新聞》一周。訂閱每週的新聞通訊，以獲取第二個新聞通訊。

Last week, as markets wobbled and crypto Twitter (CT) raged about the role of Trump's tariffs in the downturn, I found myself pondering.

上週，隨著市場搖擺不定，加密推特（CT）對特朗普的關稅在低迷中的作用肆虐，我發現自己在思考。

This editorial is from last week’s edition of the Week in Review newsletter. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter to get the editorial the second it’s finished.

該社論來自上週的《評論新聞》一周。訂閱每週的新聞通訊，以獲取第二個新聞通訊。

As equity and crypto markets went down this week, the amount of attention and anger directed at Trump’s tariffs increased. Ostensibly this makes sense, since the various Trump tariff announcements have roughly coincided with declines.

隨著本週股票和加密市場的下降，對特朗普關稅的關注和憤怒的數量也增加了。表面上這是有道理的，因為特朗普的各種關稅公告與下降大致相吻合。

It’s a safe bet that tariffs have had some effect on markets, but I question whether their effect is as pronounced as the attention and level of ire on CT would indicate.

可以肯定的是，關稅對市場產生了影響，但是我質疑它們的影響是否像CT對CT的注意力和IRE水平一樣明顯。

This week on the always good Bits + Bips podcast, I found myself agreeing with this week’s guest Travis Kling’s assessment that much of the decline could be explained by general Trump uncertainty, which tariffs are certainly a part of, but not the whole story.

本週在《總是好少數 + BIPS播客》中，我發現自己同意本週的來賓特拉維斯·克林（Travis Kling）的評估，即特朗普將軍的不確定性可以解釋很多下降，這當然是關稅的一部分，但不整個故事。

I also agreed with his view that the Trump admin is likely trying to frontload economic austerity, or give the economy “medicine” as it’s being called. The rationale is that you administer the medicine now while you can still reasonably blame Biden. The hope is the economy will be better by midterms.

我還同意他的觀點，即特朗普管理員可能試圖限制經濟緊縮，或者以所謂的經濟為“藥物”。理由是您現在要服用藥物，而您仍然可以合理地責怪Biden。希望在中期會更好。

That Trump medicine made price action rough this week, but there still were positive news stories. Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia after diplomatic efforts in Saudi Arabia led by the U.S. February Consumer Price Index—a key measure of inflation—eased to 2.8%, coming in slightly under the anticipated 2.9%.

特朗普醫學本週使價格行動變得艱難，但仍然有積極的新聞報導。烏克蘭在美國2月份消費者價格指數（這是通貨膨脹量的關鍵衡量標準）領導的沙特阿拉伯外交努力後，同意與俄羅斯的30天停火，達到2.8％，略低於預期的2.9％。

There were also positive stories specifically about crypto. I stated on this week’s episode of Token Narratives the famous quote, “people overestimate developments in the short term, and underestimate them in the long term.” Developments like the ones below are long term bullish.

還有有關加密貨幣的積極故事。我在本週的《代幣敘事》一集中指出，著名的報價“人們在短期內高估了發展，並長期低估了它們。”如下所示的發展是長期看漲的。

The U.S. Congress overturned the IRS Broker Rule, easing compliance burdens on crypto entities and preventing regulations that critics say stifled innovation and pushed development overseas. The Senate Banking Committee has advanced two bills on stablecoin regulations and financial fairness.

美國國會推翻了美國國稅局經紀人規則，減輕了對加密貨幣實體的合規負擔，並阻止了批評者說扼殺創新並推動海外發展的法規。參議院銀行委員會已提出了兩項​​關於Stablecoin法規和財務公正性的法案。

Caution and patience are still advisable right now. Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin may bottom at $70k before its next rally, citing short-term volatility caused by the Trump admin's medicine basically engineering a recession, or getting close enough to one. I largely agree with his thesis, which he shared with me in an interview this week.

現在仍然建議您謹慎和耐心。亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）預測，比特幣在下一次集會之前可能會以7萬美元的價格最低點，理由是特朗普管理員醫學（Trump Admin Medicine）引起的短期波動基本上是工程衰退，或者與一個人的距離足夠近。我在很大程度上同意他的論文，他在本週的一次採訪中與我分享了這一論文。