比特幣（BTC）邊緣更接近五年來最差的第一季度回報

隨著加密貨幣市場消化宏觀驅動的波動率從特朗普的關稅到達22025年第2季度，比特幣正在接近其五年來最糟糕的第一季度回報。

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track for its worst first-quarter return in five years as cryptocurrency markets digest macro-driven volatility from Trump’s tariffs. So far, the top digital asset by market capitalization has declined by over 7% in the first quarter, compared to Bitcoin’s drawdown of nearly 11% in the same quarter of 2020, according to CoinGlass data.

比特幣（BTC）在五年來最糟糕的第一季度回報率是有條件的，因為加密貨幣市場從特朗普的關稅中消化了宏觀驅動的波動。據Coinglass數據顯示，到目前為止，市場資本化的最高數字資產在第一季度下降了7％以上，而比特幣在2020年同一季度的將近11％的降低。

BTC began the year strong, quickly surging to a $108,786 all-time high in January as President Donald Trump’s return fueled market-wide optimism. The hype quickly faded as Trump took office on Jan. 20, and the president’s economic tariffs dampened sentiment. Bitcoin fell as low as $76,700 on some trading venues — a 30% drop from its peak.

BTC開始了這一年的強勁，隨著總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的回報促進了市場範圍內的樂觀情緒，一月份迅速飆升至108,786美元。當特朗普於1月20日上任時，炒作很快消失了，總統的經濟關稅抑制了情緒。在某些交易場所，比特幣低至76,700美元，距離高峰下降了30％。

Despite recent volatility, 21st Capital co-founder Sina G. predicted incoming U.S. quantitative easing and surmised that a reversal may be inbound, as most bearish updates are already priced. “Within a quarter or less, uncertainty around tariffs and government spending will likely be resolved,” Sina G. wrote on X — adding that “focus will then shift to tax cuts, deregulation, and rate cuts,” which may fuel capital inflows to Bitcoin and digital assets.

儘管最近發生了波動，但第21首都共同創始人Sina G.預測了我們即將到來的量化寬鬆，並推測逆轉可能是入站的，因為大多數看跌更新已經定價。 Sina G.在X上寫道：“在四分之一或更少的時間內，關稅和政府支出的不確定性可能會得到解決。”他補充說：“然後將重點轉移到減稅，放鬆管制和減稅上”，這可能會將資本流入到比特幣和數字資產上。

Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, echoed the assertion from 21st Capital’s Co-Founder. “There is a decent probability that we have passed peak tariff uncertainty, notably because the administration, especially Treasury Secretary Bessent, is striking a more pragmatic tone around tariffs (a negotiation for collective tariff barrier decrease),” Barthere told The Block.

Nansen的首席研究分析師Aurelie Barthere回應了第21 Capital的聯合創始人的主張。巴特爾告訴該街區：“我們已經通過了峰值關稅不確定性，尤其是因為政府，尤其是財政部長貝斯特（Bessent），在關稅上引起了更為務實的語氣（有關集體關稅屏障的談判）。”

President Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which may or may not trigger more volatility, depending on the outcome. Still, the Nansen Principal Research expects price swings after the event. “We would not be surprised to see some volatility post-April 2, especially as reciprocal tariffs get negotiated between the U.S. and the Eurozone,” added Barthere.

特朗普總統計劃在4月2日宣布相互關稅，這可能會導致或不會引發更多的波動，具體取決於結果。儘管如此，Nansen的主要研究仍希望價格在活動結束後波動。巴特雷補充說：“我們不會驚訝地看到4月2日之後的一些波動性，尤其是當美國和歐元區之間的互惠關稅得到談判時。”

While it’s unclear how Bitcoin volatility might unfold, BTC has historically averaged almost 27% increases during Q2. In the last thirteen years, the cryptocurrency has recorded gains in at least seven years. Plans for a U.S. Bitcoin reserve and stablecoin regulations may also mature in Q2, possibly boosting market sentiment and crypto liquidity.

雖然目前尚不清楚比特幣的波動率可能會如何發展，但在第二季度，BTC歷史上平均增長了近27％。在過去的十三年中，加密貨幣在至少七年內記錄了收益。美國比特幣儲備金和Stablecoin法規的計劃也可能成熟，在第二季度，可能會提高市場情緒和加密流動性。

Speaking at last week’s Digital Asset Summit 2025, Bo Hines, Executive Director of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets, said stablecoin regulations might arrive on President Trump’s desk by the end of June. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered foresees a $500,000 BTC price target due to the national Bitcoin reserve plan.

總統數字資產總統工作組執行董事Bo Hines在上週的Digital Asset Summit上發表講話時說，Stablecoin法規可能會在6月底到特朗普總統的辦公桌。同時，由於國家比特幣儲備計劃，標準租賃預測的是500,000美元的BTC價格目標。

Rushi Manche, co-founder of Movement Labs, believes the Q1 price action represents "temporary fluctuations in a much larger transformation." Manche said current market conditions favor a Q2 rebound, and a monetary policy pivot from the Federal Reserve should unlock capital from crypto investments. "The first 100 days are just the foundation. The real catalyst comes when policy finally aligns with the technology's potential," Manche told The Block.

運動實驗室聯合創始人Rushi Manche認為，第一季度的價格行動代表了“更大的轉型中的暫時波動”。曼奇說，當前的市場狀況有利於第二季度的籃板，美聯儲的貨幣政策樞紐應將資本從加密貨幣投資中解放出來。 Manche告訴The Block：“前100天只是基礎。真正的催化劑是在政策最終與該技術潛力保持一致的時候。”