比特币（BTC）边缘更接近五年来最差的第一季度回报

随着加密货币市场消化宏观驱动的波动率从特朗普的关税到达22025年第2季度，比特币正在接近其五年来最糟糕的第一季度回报。

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track for its worst first-quarter return in five years as cryptocurrency markets digest macro-driven volatility from Trump’s tariffs. So far, the top digital asset by market capitalization has declined by over 7% in the first quarter, compared to Bitcoin’s drawdown of nearly 11% in the same quarter of 2020, according to CoinGlass data.

比特币（BTC）在五年来最糟糕的第一季度回报率是有条件的，因为加密货币市场从特朗普的关税中消化了宏观驱动的波动。据Coinglass数据显示，到目前为止，市场资本化的最高数字资产在第一季度下降了7％以上，而比特币在2020年同一季度的将近11％的降低。

BTC began the year strong, quickly surging to a $108,786 all-time high in January as President Donald Trump’s return fueled market-wide optimism. The hype quickly faded as Trump took office on Jan. 20, and the president’s economic tariffs dampened sentiment. Bitcoin fell as low as $76,700 on some trading venues — a 30% drop from its peak.

BTC开始了这一年的强劲，随着总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的回报促进了市场范围内的乐观情绪，一月份迅速飙升至108,786美元。当特朗普于1月20日上任时，炒作很快消失了，总统的经济关税抑制了情绪。在某些交易场所，比特币低至76,700美元，距离高峰下降了30％。

Despite recent volatility, 21st Capital co-founder Sina G. predicted incoming U.S. quantitative easing and surmised that a reversal may be inbound, as most bearish updates are already priced. “Within a quarter or less, uncertainty around tariffs and government spending will likely be resolved,” Sina G. wrote on X — adding that “focus will then shift to tax cuts, deregulation, and rate cuts,” which may fuel capital inflows to Bitcoin and digital assets.

尽管最近发生了波动，但第21首都共同创始人Sina G.预测了我们即将到来的量化宽松，并推测逆转可能是入站的，因为大多数看跌更新已经定价。 Sina G.在X上写道：“在四分之一或更少的时间内，关税和政府支出的不确定性可能会得到解决。”他补充说：“然后将重点转移到减税，放松管制和减税上”，这可能会将资本流入到比特币和数字资产上。

Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, echoed the assertion from 21st Capital’s Co-Founder. “There is a decent probability that we have passed peak tariff uncertainty, notably because the administration, especially Treasury Secretary Bessent, is striking a more pragmatic tone around tariffs (a negotiation for collective tariff barrier decrease),” Barthere told The Block.

Nansen的首席研究分析师Aurelie Barthere回应了第21 Capital的联合创始人的主张。巴特尔告诉该街区：“我们已经通过了峰值关税不确定性，尤其是因为政府，尤其是财政部长贝斯特（Bessent），在关税上引起了更为务实的语气（有关集体关税屏障的谈判）。”

President Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which may or may not trigger more volatility, depending on the outcome. Still, the Nansen Principal Research expects price swings after the event. “We would not be surprised to see some volatility post-April 2, especially as reciprocal tariffs get negotiated between the U.S. and the Eurozone,” added Barthere.

特朗普总统计划在4月2日宣布相互关税，这可能会导致或不会引发更多的波动，具体取决于结果。尽管如此，Nansen的主要研究仍希望价格在活动结束后波动。巴特雷补充说：“我们不会惊讶地看到4月2日之后的一些波动性，尤其是当美国和欧元区之间的互惠关税得到谈判时。”

While it’s unclear how Bitcoin volatility might unfold, BTC has historically averaged almost 27% increases during Q2. In the last thirteen years, the cryptocurrency has recorded gains in at least seven years. Plans for a U.S. Bitcoin reserve and stablecoin regulations may also mature in Q2, possibly boosting market sentiment and crypto liquidity.

虽然目前尚不清楚比特币的波动率可能会如何发展，但在第二季度，BTC历史上平均增长了近27％。在过去的十三年中，加密货币在至少七年内记录了收益。美国比特币储备金和Stablecoin法规的计划也可能成熟，在第二季度，可能会提高市场情绪和加密流动性。

Speaking at last week’s Digital Asset Summit 2025, Bo Hines, Executive Director of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets, said stablecoin regulations might arrive on President Trump’s desk by the end of June. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered foresees a $500,000 BTC price target due to the national Bitcoin reserve plan.

总统数字资产总统工作组执行董事Bo Hines在上周的Digital Asset Summit上发表讲话时说，Stablecoin法规可能会在6月底到特朗普总统的办公桌。同时，由于国家比特币储备计划，标准租赁预测的是500,000美元的BTC价格目标。

Rushi Manche, co-founder of Movement Labs, believes the Q1 price action represents "temporary fluctuations in a much larger transformation." Manche said current market conditions favor a Q2 rebound, and a monetary policy pivot from the Federal Reserve should unlock capital from crypto investments. "The first 100 days are just the foundation. The real catalyst comes when policy finally aligns with the technology's potential," Manche told The Block.

运动实验室联合创始人Rushi Manche认为，第一季度的价格行动代表了“更大的转型中的暂时波动”。曼奇说，当前的市场状况有利于第二季度的篮板，美联储的货币政策枢纽应将资本从加密货币投资中解放出来。 Manche告诉The Block：“前100天只是基础。真正的催化剂是在政策最终与该技术潜力保持一致的时候。”