比特币（BTC）价格于2025年4月在今年早些时候急剧上升和下降之后进入不确定的基础

在今年早些时候急剧上升和下降之后，比特币将于2025年4月进入不确定的基础。比特币价格飙升至历史高昂

Bitcoin is entering April 2025 on uncertain footing after a dramatic rise and fall earlier this year. The Bitcoin Price soared to an all-time high during the euphoria of President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, then tumbled in the weeks that followed. Now, as the first quarter closes, market sentiment remains mixed with investors weighing whether a spring rebound or further volatility lies ahead.

在今年早些时候急剧上升和下降之后，比特币将于2025年4月进入不确定的基础。在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统在一月份就职典礼上的欣喜期间，比特币的价格飙升至历史最高，然后在随后的几周内跌跌撞撞。现在，随着第一季度关闭，市场情绪仍然与投资者混合在一起，无论是春季反弹还是进一步的波动性。

Post-Inauguration Price Surge and Decline

董事会后价格飙升和下降

Bitcoin jumped to a record level above $109,000 on Jan. 20, the day Trump was sworn in, buoyed by traders optimistic about the new administration’s pro-crypto promises. That rally proved short-lived. Within weeks, Bitcoin had fallen roughly 20% from its peak, dropping under the $90,000 mark. By late February it was trading around $88,000 – levels last seen before Trump’s election – as initial crypto euphoria gave way to a broad sell-off.

1月20日，比特币跃升至超过109,000美元的创纪录水平，特朗普宣誓就职的那天，对交易者对新政府的Pro-Crypto承诺感到乐观。那集会被证明是短暂的。在几周内，比特币从高峰下降了约20％，下降到90,000美元以下。到2月下旬，它的交易约为88,000美元，这是特朗普当选之前的最后水平 - 最初的加密熟食店让位于广泛的抛售。

An exchange employee monitors a screen displaying cryptocurrency prices in Seoul, South Korea, in late 2024, when Bitcoin’s value was nearing $100,000. The token’s price later peaked above $109,000 on Inauguration Day 2025 before reversing sharply.

一名交流员工在2024年底在韩国首尔监视屏幕上显示加密货币价格的屏幕，当时比特币的价值接近100,000美元。代币的价格后来在2025年就职典礼上达到了109,000美元以上的峰值，然后急剧倒转。

Multiple factors drove the reversal. On his first day in office, President Trump surprised markets by announcing new import tariffs, rattling investors and dampening risk appetite across the board. Hopes that Trump would immediately implement ultra-friendly crypto policies – such as creating a U.S. “bitcoin reserve” – also began to fade. “The market is disappointed with that,” said James Butterfill, head of research at asset manager CoinShares, noting that Trump ordered a crypto working group instead of direct government Bitcoin purchases.

多种因素推动了逆转。在任职的第一天，特朗普总统通过宣布新的进口关税，打动投资者并全面抑制风险胃口，使市场感到惊讶。希望特朗普能立即实施超友好的加密政策，例如制定美国“比特币储备” - 也开始消失。资产经理Coinshares研究主管James Butterfill说：“市场对此感到失望。

Meanwhile, hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve added further headwinds, as rising interest rates made speculative assets less attractive.

同时，美国美联储的鹰派信号增加了进一步的逆风，因为利率上升使投机资产的吸引力降低。

By the end of February, Bitcoin had erased nearly all its post-election gains, and nearly $1 trillion in nominal value had been wiped from the overall crypto market since its December highs. Other cryptocurrencies fared even worse – for instance, Ether (ETH) fell over 40% from its peak – underscoring the breadth of the downturn. “The initial excitement surrounding the Trump administration’s perceived pro-crypto stance appears to be in a phase of recalibration,” observed Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks.

到2月底，比特币几乎消除了大选后的所有收益，自12月以来，已经从整个加密货币市场中抹去了近1万亿美元的名义价值。其他加密货币的情况更糟 - 例如，以太（Eth）（ETH）从高峰降低了40％以上 - 强调了衰退的广度。 CF基准研究负责人加贝·塞尔比（Gabe Selby）观察到：“围绕特朗普政府感知到的亲克莱普托立场的最初兴奋似乎是在重新校准的阶段。”

Analysts say investors had to reset overly lofty expectations as Trump’s early crypto moves, while symbolic, delivered no immediate boom to prices.

分析人士说，随着特朗普的早期加密货币动作，投资者不得不重置过高的期望，而象征性的虽然没有立即向价格付出繁荣。

Market Sentiment in Late March

3月下旬的市场情绪

As of late March, Bitcoin has steadied in the mid-$80,000s after finding support earlier in the month. The cryptocurrency briefly rebounded above $86,000 in mid-March amid encouraging macroeconomic signals – including the Fed’s decision to pause interest rate hikes – and fresh pledges from Trump to make the U.S. a “Bitcoin superpower”. That bump helped Bitcoin break a four-month downtrend, technically speaking, and reclaim key long-term moving averages that traders view as bullish indicators. “Bitcoin has most recently daily closed above the 200 EMA… testing it again into new support,” noted analyst Rekt Capital on March 20, pointing to improving momentum.

截至3月下旬，本月初找到支持后，比特币在80,000美元中稳定下来。加密货币在3月中旬短暂地反弹了86,000美元，这鼓励了宏观经济信号（包括美联储暂停利率上升的决定）以及特朗普的新认捐，以使美国成为“比特币超级大国”。从技术上讲，这种凹凸有助于比特币打破了四个月的下降趋势，并收回了交易者将其视为看涨指标的主要长期移动平均值。分析师Rekt Capital在3月20日指出，“比特币最近每天都在200 EMA高于200 EMA…再次对其进行了测试。”

Even so, investor sentiment remains cautious. Ongoing global trade tensions – sparked by Trump’s tariff threats – and lack of clarity on U.S. crypto policy are keeping many traders on edge. “Global tariff concerns are the biggest driver at this moment,” explained Nicolai Søndergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, who expects risk assets may “lack direction until the tariff-related concerns are resolved” around early April. High interest rates are another damper. “We’re waiting for the Fed to see proper ‘bad news'” before they will really start cutting rates, Søndergaard added, suggesting the Federal Reserve’s stance will continue to pressure risk appetite until rate cuts are on the horizon.

即便如此，投资者的情绪仍然谨慎。持续正在进行的全球贸易紧张局势 - 特朗普的关税威胁引起的 - 缺乏对美国加密货币政策的明确性使许多贸易商处于边缘状态。 Nansen的研究分析师NicolaiSøndergaard解释说：“全球关税问题是目前最大的推动力。”他期望风险资产“缺乏方向，直到4月初与关税有关的担忧解决”。高利率是另一个阻碍。索德加德补充说：“我们正在等待美联储真正开始降低税率之前，才能看到适当的'坏消息'。”

Market data reflects this wariness. After reaching “Extreme Greed” levels late last year, the popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index has now swung to “Extreme Fear” territory – recently measuring around 15 on its scale. That indicates many investors have become defensive, with some locking in profits or losses amid the volatility. “Recent buyers are realizing significant losses, highlighting the exceptionally challenging conditions for newer investors,” noted analysts at exchange Bitfinex, as Bitcoin’s price hovering ~25% below its peak has put latecomers in the red.

市场数据反映了这种警惕。在去年年底达到“极端贪婪”水平后，流行的加密恐惧和贪婪指数现在转向了“极端恐惧”领域 - 最近在其规模上达到了15次。这表明许多投资者已经变得防御，在波动性的情况下有些锁定了利润或亏损。交易所Bitfinex的分析师指出：“最近的买家正在意识到巨大的损失，强调了新的投资者的极具挑战性条件。”因为比特币的价格徘徊在其峰值低约25％的情况下，将后来的人置于红色。

Still, on-chain metrics show long-term holders remain confident: roughly 63% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year, a sign that “HODLers” are sitting tight through the turbulence.

尽管如此，链度指标仍表明长期持有人仍然有信心：大约63％的比特币供应没有移动一年以上，这表明“霍德勒”陷入了动荡。

Expert Predictions for April 2025

2025年4月的专家预测

Looking ahead to April, crypto market experts are divided on

展望四月，加密市场专家划分