比特幣（BTC）價格於2025年4月在今年早些時候急劇上升和下降之後進入不確定的基礎

在今年早些時候急劇上升和下降之後，比特幣將於2025年4月進入不確定的基礎。比特幣價格飆升至歷史高昂

Bitcoin is entering April 2025 on uncertain footing after a dramatic rise and fall earlier this year. The Bitcoin Price soared to an all-time high during the euphoria of President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, then tumbled in the weeks that followed. Now, as the first quarter closes, market sentiment remains mixed with investors weighing whether a spring rebound or further volatility lies ahead.

在今年早些時候急劇上升和下降之後，比特幣將於2025年4月進入不確定的基礎。在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統在一月份就職典禮上的欣喜期間，比特幣的價格飆升至歷史最高，然後在隨後的幾週內跌跌撞撞。現在，隨著第一季度關閉，市場情緒仍然與投資者混合在一起，無論是春季反彈還是進一步的波動性。

Post-Inauguration Price Surge and Decline

董事會後價格飆升和下降

Bitcoin jumped to a record level above $109,000 on Jan. 20, the day Trump was sworn in, buoyed by traders optimistic about the new administration’s pro-crypto promises. That rally proved short-lived. Within weeks, Bitcoin had fallen roughly 20% from its peak, dropping under the $90,000 mark. By late February it was trading around $88,000 – levels last seen before Trump’s election – as initial crypto euphoria gave way to a broad sell-off.

1月20日，比特幣躍升至超過109,000美元的創紀錄水平，特朗普宣誓就職的那天，對交易者對新政府的Pro-Crypto承諾感到樂觀。那集會被證明是短暫的。在幾週內，比特幣從高峰下降了約20％，下降到90,000美元以下。到2月下旬，它的交易約為88,000美元，這是特朗普當選之前的最後水平 - 最初的加密熟食店讓位於廣泛的拋售。

An exchange employee monitors a screen displaying cryptocurrency prices in Seoul, South Korea, in late 2024, when Bitcoin’s value was nearing $100,000. The token’s price later peaked above $109,000 on Inauguration Day 2025 before reversing sharply.

一名交流員工在2024年底在韓國首爾監視屏幕上顯示加密貨幣價格的屏幕，當時比特幣的價值接近100,000美元。代幣的價格後來在2025年就職典禮上達到了109,000美元以上的峰值，然後急劇倒轉。

Multiple factors drove the reversal. On his first day in office, President Trump surprised markets by announcing new import tariffs, rattling investors and dampening risk appetite across the board. Hopes that Trump would immediately implement ultra-friendly crypto policies – such as creating a U.S. “bitcoin reserve” – also began to fade. “The market is disappointed with that,” said James Butterfill, head of research at asset manager CoinShares, noting that Trump ordered a crypto working group instead of direct government Bitcoin purchases.

多種因素推動了逆轉。在任職的第一天，特朗普總統通過宣布新的進口關稅，打動投資者並全面抑制風險胃口，使市場感到驚訝。希望特朗普能立即實施超友好的加密政策，例如製定美國“比特幣儲備” - 也開始消失。資產經理Coinshares研究主管James Butterfill說：“市場對此感到失望。

Meanwhile, hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve added further headwinds, as rising interest rates made speculative assets less attractive.

同時，美國美聯儲的鷹派信號增加了進一步的逆風，因為利率上升使投機資產的吸引力降低。

By the end of February, Bitcoin had erased nearly all its post-election gains, and nearly $1 trillion in nominal value had been wiped from the overall crypto market since its December highs. Other cryptocurrencies fared even worse – for instance, Ether (ETH) fell over 40% from its peak – underscoring the breadth of the downturn. “The initial excitement surrounding the Trump administration’s perceived pro-crypto stance appears to be in a phase of recalibration,” observed Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks.

到2月底，比特幣幾乎消除了大選後的所有收益，自12月以來，已經從整個加密貨幣市場中抹去了近1萬億美元的名義價值。其他加密貨幣的情況更糟 - 例如，以太（Eth）（ETH）從高峰降低了40％以上 - 強調了衰退的廣度。 CF基準研究負責人加貝·塞爾比（Gabe Selby）觀察到：“圍繞特朗普政府感知到的親克萊普托立場的最初興奮似乎是在重新校準的階段。”

Analysts say investors had to reset overly lofty expectations as Trump’s early crypto moves, while symbolic, delivered no immediate boom to prices.

分析人士說，隨著特朗普的早期加密貨幣動作，投資者不得不重置過高的期望，而像徵性的雖然沒有立即向價格付出繁榮。

Market Sentiment in Late March

3月下旬的市場情緒

As of late March, Bitcoin has steadied in the mid-$80,000s after finding support earlier in the month. The cryptocurrency briefly rebounded above $86,000 in mid-March amid encouraging macroeconomic signals – including the Fed’s decision to pause interest rate hikes – and fresh pledges from Trump to make the U.S. a “Bitcoin superpower”. That bump helped Bitcoin break a four-month downtrend, technically speaking, and reclaim key long-term moving averages that traders view as bullish indicators. “Bitcoin has most recently daily closed above the 200 EMA… testing it again into new support,” noted analyst Rekt Capital on March 20, pointing to improving momentum.

截至3月下旬，本月初找到支持後，比特幣在80,000美元中穩定下來。加密貨幣在3月中旬短暫地反彈了86,000美元，這鼓勵了宏觀經濟信號（包括美聯儲暫停利率上升的決定）以及特朗普的新認捐，以使美國成為“比特幣超級大國”。從技術上講，這種凹凸有助於比特幣打破了四個月的下降趨勢，並收回了交易者將其視為看漲指標的主要長期移動平均值。分析師Rekt Capital在3月20日指出，“比特幣最近每天都在200 EMA高於200 EMA…再次對其進行了測試。”

Even so, investor sentiment remains cautious. Ongoing global trade tensions – sparked by Trump’s tariff threats – and lack of clarity on U.S. crypto policy are keeping many traders on edge. “Global tariff concerns are the biggest driver at this moment,” explained Nicolai Søndergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, who expects risk assets may “lack direction until the tariff-related concerns are resolved” around early April. High interest rates are another damper. “We’re waiting for the Fed to see proper ‘bad news'” before they will really start cutting rates, Søndergaard added, suggesting the Federal Reserve’s stance will continue to pressure risk appetite until rate cuts are on the horizon.

即便如此，投資者的情緒仍然謹慎。持續正在進行的全球貿易緊張局勢 - 特朗普的關稅威脅引起的 - 缺乏對美國加密貨幣政策的明確性使許多貿易商處於邊緣狀態。 Nansen的研究分析師NicolaiSøndergaard解釋說：“全球關稅問題是目前最大的推動力。”他期望風險資產“缺乏方向，直到4月初與關稅有關的擔憂解決”。高利率是另一個阻礙。索德加德補充說：“我們正在等待美聯儲真正開始降低稅率之前，才能看到適當的'壞消息'。”

Market data reflects this wariness. After reaching “Extreme Greed” levels late last year, the popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index has now swung to “Extreme Fear” territory – recently measuring around 15 on its scale. That indicates many investors have become defensive, with some locking in profits or losses amid the volatility. “Recent buyers are realizing significant losses, highlighting the exceptionally challenging conditions for newer investors,” noted analysts at exchange Bitfinex, as Bitcoin’s price hovering ~25% below its peak has put latecomers in the red.

市場數據反映了這種警惕。在去年年底達到“極端貪婪”水平後，流行的加密恐懼和貪婪指數現在轉向了“極端恐懼”領域 - 最近在其規模上達到了15次。這表明許多投資者已經變得防禦，在波動性的情況下有些鎖定了利潤或虧損。交易所Bitfinex的分析師指出：“最近的買家正在意識到巨大的損失，強調了新的投資者的極具挑戰性條件。”因為比特幣的價格徘徊在其峰值低約25％的情況下，將後來的人置於紅色。

Still, on-chain metrics show long-term holders remain confident: roughly 63% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year, a sign that “HODLers” are sitting tight through the turbulence.

儘管如此，鏈度指標仍表明長期持有人仍然有信心：大約63％的比特幣供應沒有移動一年以上，這表明“霍德勒”陷入了動盪。

Expert Predictions for April 2025

2025年4月的專家預測

Looking ahead to April, crypto market experts are divided on

展望四月，加密市場專家劃分