关税有多重要？

该社论来自上周的《评论新闻》一周。订阅每周的新闻通讯，以获取第二个新闻通讯。

Last week, as markets wobbled and crypto Twitter (CT) raged about the role of Trump's tariffs in the downturn, I found myself pondering.

上周，随着市场摇摆不定，加密推特（CT）对特朗普的关税在低迷中的作用肆虐，我发现自己在思考。

This editorial is from last week’s edition of the Week in Review newsletter. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter to get the editorial the second it’s finished.

该社论来自上周的《评论新闻》一周。订阅每周的新闻通讯，以获取第二个新闻通讯。

As equity and crypto markets went down this week, the amount of attention and anger directed at Trump’s tariffs increased. Ostensibly this makes sense, since the various Trump tariff announcements have roughly coincided with declines.

随着本周股票和加密市场的下降，对特朗普关税的关注和愤怒的数量也增加了。表面上这是有道理的，因为特朗普的各种关税公告与下降大致相吻合。

It’s a safe bet that tariffs have had some effect on markets, but I question whether their effect is as pronounced as the attention and level of ire on CT would indicate.

可以肯定的是，关税对市场产生了影响，但是我质疑它们的影响是否像CT对CT的注意力和IRE水平一样明显。

This week on the always good Bits + Bips podcast, I found myself agreeing with this week’s guest Travis Kling’s assessment that much of the decline could be explained by general Trump uncertainty, which tariffs are certainly a part of, but not the whole story.

本周在《总是好少数 + BIPS播客》中，我发现自己同意本周的来宾特拉维斯·克林（Travis Kling）的评估，即特朗普将军的不确定性可以解释很多下降，这当然是关税的一部分，但不整个故事。

I also agreed with his view that the Trump admin is likely trying to frontload economic austerity, or give the economy “medicine” as it’s being called. The rationale is that you administer the medicine now while you can still reasonably blame Biden. The hope is the economy will be better by midterms.

我还同意他的观点，即特朗普管理员可能试图限制经济紧缩，或者以所谓的经济为“药物”。理由是您现在要服用药物，而您仍然可以合理地责怪Biden。希望在中期会更好。

That Trump medicine made price action rough this week, but there still were positive news stories. Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia after diplomatic efforts in Saudi Arabia led by the U.S. February Consumer Price Index—a key measure of inflation—eased to 2.8%, coming in slightly under the anticipated 2.9%.

特朗普医学本周使价格行动变得艰难，但仍然有积极的新闻报道。乌克兰在美国2月份消费者价格指数（这是通货膨胀量的关键衡量标准）领导的沙特阿拉伯外交努力后，同意与俄罗斯的30天停火，达到2.8％，略低于预期的2.9％。

There were also positive stories specifically about crypto. I stated on this week’s episode of Token Narratives the famous quote, “people overestimate developments in the short term, and underestimate them in the long term.” Developments like the ones below are long term bullish.

还有有关加密货币的积极故事。我在本周的《代币叙事》一集中指出，著名的报价“人们在短期内高估了发展，并长期低估了它们。”如下所示的发展是长期看涨的。

The U.S. Congress overturned the IRS Broker Rule, easing compliance burdens on crypto entities and preventing regulations that critics say stifled innovation and pushed development overseas. The Senate Banking Committee has advanced two bills on stablecoin regulations and financial fairness.

美国国会推翻了美国国税局经纪人规则，减轻了对加密货币实体的合规负担，并阻止了批评者说扼杀创新并推动海外发展的法规。参议院银行委员会已提出了两项​​关于Stablecoin法规和财务公正性的法案。

Caution and patience are still advisable right now. Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin may bottom at $70k before its next rally, citing short-term volatility caused by the Trump admin's medicine basically engineering a recession, or getting close enough to one. I largely agree with his thesis, which he shared with me in an interview this week.

现在仍然建议您谨慎和耐心。亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测，比特币在下一次集会之前可能会以7万美元的价格最低点，理由是特朗普管理员医学（Trump Admin Medicine）引起的短期波动基本上是工程衰退，或者与一个人的距离足够近。我在很大程度上同意他的论文，他在本周的一次采访中与我分享了这一论文。