催化劑的匯合 - ETF和比特幣的彈性激增推進了加密的主流上升

加密貨幣市場通常以其動蕩的波動和不可預測的敘述為特徵，目前正在經歷催化劑的融合

The cryptocurrency market, often characterized by its volatile swings and unpredictable narratives, is currently experiencing a confluence of catalysts that are poised to propel it into a new era of mainstream adoption. Surging confidence in XRP ETFs, coupled with Bitcoin’s historical “Dip Then Rip” pattern signaling a potential 190% surge, underscores a market primed for explosive growth. This article delves into the intricacies of these developments, examining the factors driving the ETF mania, analyzing Bitcoin’s historical patterns, and exploring the broader implications for the cryptocurrency industry.

加密貨幣市場通常以其動蕩的波動和不可預測的敘述為特徵，目前正在經歷催化劑的匯合，這些催化劑有望將其推動到主流採用的新時代。對XRP ETF的信心激增，再加上比特幣的歷史“ DIP然後RIP”模式，表明了潛在的190％激增，強調了一個為爆炸性增長而啟動的市場。本文深入研究了這些發展的複雜性，研究了推動ETF狂熱的因素，分析比特幣的歷史模式，並探索對加密貨幣行業的更廣泛含義。

A closer look at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs in 2024 reveals a regulatory shift that has ignited a wave of optimism within the cryptocurrency market.

仔細研究了美國證券交易委員會（SEC）在2024年對現場比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）ETF的批准，這表明監管轉變激發了加密貨幣市場中一波樂觀的浪潮。

This move, together with the Trump administration’s more accommodating stance towards digital assets, has opened the floodgates for alternative crypto asset ETF applications. Among the altcoins vying for ETF approval, XRP stands out, fueled by a combination of market sentiment and legal victories.

這一舉動以及特朗普政府對數字資產的更具包容性立場，為替代加密資產ETF應用程序打開了閘門。在爭奪ETF批准的AltCoins中，XRP脫穎而出，在市場情緒和法律勝利的結合下引起了貢獻。

Prediction market platform Polymarket currently indicates an 87% probability of a spot XRP ETF being greenlit by 2025, closely approaching the bet’s highest confidence level since its inception. This surge in optimism is directly linked to the SEC’s recent decision to dismiss its lawsuit against Ripple Labs.

預測市場平台多頭市場目前表明，到2025年，XRP ETF綠色的範圍為87％，這與BET成立以來的最高置信水平緊密接近。樂觀激增直接與SEC駁回其針對Ripple Labs的訴訟的決定有關。

The ruling sharply elevated market expectations, and the implications of an XRP ETF approval are profound. It would unlock significant capital inflows from institutional investors and retail traders who have previously been hesitant to engage with the cryptocurrency market directly.

裁定的市場期望急劇提高，XRP ETF批准的含義是深刻的。它將從機構投資者和零售商交易員那裡釋放出大量資本流入，這些投資者和零售商人以前猶豫不決直接與加密貨幣市場互動。

This influx of capital could further validate the legitimacy of XRP as an asset class, driving its integration into mainstream financial systems.

這種資本的湧入可以進一步驗證XRP作為資產類別的合法性，從而將其集成到主流金融系統中。

In addition to XRP, other altcoins are also in the running for an ETF, including Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Litecoin (LTC). Solana, backed by a $104,793-volume Polymarket wager, holds an 87% approval probability according to bettors.

除XRP外，其他AltCoins還在運行ETF，包括Solana（Sol），Cardano（ADA）和Litecoin（LTC）。索拉納（Solana）在$ 104,793-VOLUME POLMARKET BAYER的支持下，持有87％的批准概率。

Known for its high transaction speeds, low fees, and burgeoning ecosystem of decentralized applications (dApps), Solana is seen as a formidable competitor to Ethereum. Meanwhile, Cardano, with a 61% likelihood of ETF approval, and Litecoin, at 68% probability, are also attracting attention from financial firms.

Solana以其高交易速度，低費用和新興的生態系統而聞名，Solana被視為對以太坊的強大競爭者。同時，Cardano具有61％的ETF批准性，而Litecoin（68％）也吸引了金融公司的關注。

The growing interest in altcoin ETFs underscores a pivotal shift towards mainstream adoption, driven by regulatory clarity and institutional backing. The approval of these ETFs would democratize access to these assets, allowing a wider range of investors to participate in the growth of the cryptocurrency market.

在監管清晰度和製度支持的推動下，對Altcoin ETF的興趣日益增長，強調了向主流採用的關鍵轉變。這些ETF的批准將民主化對這些資產的機會，從而使更多的投資者參與加密貨幣市場的增長。

Amidst the ETF mania, Bitcoin’s historical “Dip Then Rip” pattern is signaling a potential 190% surge, further fueling the bullish sentiment within the cryptocurrency market.

在ETF躁狂症中，比特幣的歷史“蘸醬”模式表明了潛在的190％激增，進一步加劇了加密貨幣市場中的看漲情緒。

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at asset management firm Bitwise, has highlighted this pattern, noting that Bitcoin tends to drop in moments of financial stress, only to rebound with significant gains in the following year.

資產管理公司BITWISE的首席投資官Matt Hougan強調了這種模式，並指出比特幣往往會減少財務壓力的時刻，而僅在第二年的重大收益中反彈。

Hougan’s analysis, based on research by his colleague Juan Leon, demonstrates that when the S&P 500 falls by more than 2% in a single day, Bitcoin tends to perform even worse, declining about 2.6% on average. However, the year following these sharp pullbacks has historically seen Bitcoin rise by a staggering 190%, dramatically outperforming every other asset.

霍根（Hougan）的分析基於他的同事胡安·萊昂（Juan Leon）的研究表明，當標準普爾500指數在一天內下降超過2％時，比特幣的表現往往更糟，平均下降了約2.6％。然而，在這些急劇的回調歷史上，比特幣的增長驚人的190％升高，大大超過了其他所有資產。

This pattern, which Hougan calls “Dip Then Rip,” stems from how investors determine asset values using future expectations and risk assumptions. While Bitcoin lacks cash flows, Hougan applies a similar model based on projected value and discount rates.

這種模式稱之為“浸入然後撕裂”的模式源於投資者如何使用未來的期望和風險假設來確定資產價值。儘管比特幣缺乏現金流量，但Hougan根據預計的價值和折現率採用了類似的模型。

He argues that geopolitical disruptions and market turbulence can temporarily elevate risk perception, raising the discount rate and lowering Bitcoin’s near-term valuation. But these disruptions often present strategic buying opportunities, as Bitcoin’s long-term forecast remains robust.

他認為，地緣政治破壞和市場動盪可以暫時提高風險感知，提高折現率並降低比特幣的近期估值。但是，這些干擾通常會帶來戰略性購買機會，因為比特幣的長期預測仍然強勁。