目標股票反應過度——巨大的異常看跌期權交易量表明 TGT 的下跌有些過度

TGT 週五收在 125.01 美元，較前日低點 121.59 美元上漲 2.42%。與 156.56 美元的價格相比，下跌了 34.59 美元，即 -22%

Target Corp (NYSE:TGT) stock has dropped 20% since its disappointing Q3 earnings on Nov. 20. But on Friday, Nov. 22, TGT stock began to rebound, rising 2.42% for the session. It closed at $125.01, up from the day-before trough price of $121.59.

自 11 月 20 日公佈令人失望的第三季業績以來，塔吉特公司 (NYSE:TGT) 股價已下跌 20%。收盤價為 125.01 美元，高於前一天的最低價 121.59 美元。

However, TGT stock is still down $34.59, or 22%, from its price of $156.56 before the earnings release. But several analysts, including me, believe that TGT stock has overshot to the downside and is now undervalued.

然而，TGT 股價仍較財報發布前的 156.56 美元下跌 34.59 美元，或 22%。但包括我在內的幾位分析師認為，TGT 股票已經過度下跌，目前估值被低估。

I discussed this situation in my Nov. 20 Barchart article, “Target Stock Overreaction - Huge Unusual Put Option Volume Signals TGT's Drop is Overdone.” I argued that TGT stock was worth at least $143 per share, based on the company's likely free cash flow (FCF) margins next year.

我在 11 月 20 日的條形圖文章「目標股票過度反應 - 巨大的異常看跌期權交易量表明 TGT 的下跌已經過度」中討論了這種情況。我認為，根據該公司明年可能的自由現金流 (FCF) 利潤率，TGT 股票的價值至少為每股 143 美元。

That means that even after Friday's gain, TGT stock is still worth 16% more. Here's how I arrived at that valuation.

這意味著即使在周五上漲之後，TGT 股票的價值仍然上漲了 16%。以下是我得出這個估值的方法。

Based on analysts' forecasts of $109 billion in revenue next year, with a 2.0% FCF margin, free cash flow could be $2.18 billion. Even if FCF drops to $2.00 billion, TGT stock could still be cheap. Here's why.

根據分析師預測明年營收為 1,090 億美元，自由現金流利潤率為 2.0%，自由現金流可能為 21.8 億美元。即使 FCF 跌至 20 億美元，TGT 股票仍可能很便宜。原因如下。

Using a 3.0% FCF yield, the market valuation would eventually be worth $66.67 billion ($2.0b in est. FCF 2025 / 0.03 = $66.67 billion).

使用 3.0% 的 FCF 收益率，市場估值最終將達到 666.7 億美元（預計 2025 年 FCF 為 2.0b / 0.03 = 666.7 億美元）。

This is 16.1% higher than its market cap of $57.41 billion today ($66.67b target mkt cap / $57.41 = 1.161).

這比目前 574.1 億美元的市值高出 16.1%（目標市值為 66.67b 美元/57.41 美元 = 1.161）。

In other words, TGT stock is worth 16.1% more than $125.01 ($1.161 x $125.01 = $145.13 per share).

換句話說，TGT 股票的價值比 125.01 美元高出 16.1%（1.161 美元 x 125.01 美元 = 每股 145.13 美元）。

Other analysts see the stock as undervalued as well.

其他分析師也認為該股被低估。

Analysts See TGT Stock Undervalued

分析師認為 TGT 股票被低估

For example, Yahoo! Finance says its survey of 37 analysts shows an average price target of $143.41 per share. That is close to my price target and still 14.7% higher than today's price.

例如，雅虎！ Finance 稱，其對 37 名分析師的調查顯示，平均目標價為每股 143.41 美元。這接近我的目標價格，但仍比今天的價格高 14.7%。

In addition, Barchart's survey has a mean target price of $156.90 or 25.5% higher. Similarly, AnaChart.com, a new fintech site that tracks sell-side analysts and their price targets, shows that the average of 23 analysts is $153.95 per share, 23% higher than Friday's close.

此外，Barchart 的調查得出的平均目標價為 156.90 美元，即高出 25.5%。同樣，追蹤賣方分析師及其目標價的新金融科技網站 AnaChart.com 顯示，23 位分析師的平均股價為每股 153.95 美元，比周五收盤價高出 23%。

The bottom line is that Target stock now looks undervalued. But it could take a good while for the stock to rebound. After all, investors are nervous that Target's holiday season might not turn out well.

最重要的是，塔吉特股票現在看起來被低估了。但該股可能需要一段時間才能反彈。畢竟，投資人擔心塔吉特的假期季節可能不會有好結果。

Therefore, let's look at an alternative way to play TGT stock: buying long-dated call options with in-the-money (ITM) strike prices.

因此，讓我們看看另一種投資 TGT 股票的方法：購買價內 (ITM) 執行價格的長期看漲期權。

In-the-Money Long-Dated TGT Calls

實值長期 TGT 買權

For example, look at the Jan. 16, 2026 expiration call option chain. This is 421 days from now, or almost 1 year and 2 months away. That allows the investor to hold these calls over one year and potentially not have to pay short-term capital gains taxes on any profits.

例如，看看 2026 年 1 月 16 日到期的看漲期權鏈。現在距離還有 421 天，或者說差不多有 1 年 2 個月了。這使得投資者可以持有這些看漲期權一年以上，並且可能不必為任何利潤繳納短期資本利得稅。

Here is what is interesting. It makes sense to buy in-the-money (ITM) call options since these already have some intrinsic value embedded in their price. That provides some degree of downside protection as well as providing good leverage on the upside.

有趣的是。購買實值（ITM）買權是有意義的，因為這些選擇權的價格已經包含了一些內在價值。這提供了一定程度的下行保護，並為上行提供了良好的槓桿作用。

For example, look at the $110.00 strike price calls. These are trading $15.01 below the $125.01 trading price, and so are already worth at least that amount.

例如，看一下 110.00 美元的執行價看漲期權。這些商品的交易價格比 125.01 美元低 15.01 美元，因此其價值至少已經達到這個水準。

However, the midprice premium is $23.50, meaning there is $23.50-$15.01, or $8.49 of excess or extrinsic value in the price. But, at least the intrinsic value represents 64% of the total premium paid.

然而，中間價溢價為 23.50 美元，這意味著價格中有 23.50-15.01 美元，即 8.49 美元的超額或外在價值。但是，內在價值至少佔所付保費總額的 64%。

Moreover, the advantage is that to buy 1 contract representing 100 shares the outlay is only $2,350 per call option. To buy 100 shares at today's trading price, the investor would have to pay $12,501 (i.e., $1

此外，其優勢在於，購買 1 份代表 100 股的合約，每個看漲期權的費用僅為 2,350 美元。要以今天的交易價格購買 100 股，投資者需要支付 12,501 美元（即 1 美元）