儘管機構需求強勁，但比特幣（BTC）仍在努力恢復過去50天的100,000美元

鑑於唐納德·特朗普總統於3月6日發布的美國戰略比特幣儲備金行政命令，這種價格弱點尤其令人著迷

Despite strong institutional demand, Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to reclaim the $100,000 level for the past 50 days, leading investors to question the reasons behind the bearishness despite a seemingly positive environment.

儘管機構需求很強，但比特幣（BTC）仍在努力地奪回過去50天的100,000美元水平，導致投資者質疑儘管有一個似乎積極的環境，但質疑看跌背後的原因。

This price weakness is particularly intriguing given the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve executive order issued by President Donald Trump on March 6, which allows BTC acquisitions as long as they follow “budget-neutral” strategies.

鑑於唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統於3月6日發布的美國戰略比特幣儲備金行政命令尤其引人注目，只要他們遵循“預算中性”的戰略，這允許BTC收購。

Bitcoin fails to keep up with gold’s returns despite positive news flow

儘管有積極的新聞流，但比特幣仍無法跟上黃金的回報

On March 26, GameStop Corporation (GME), the North American video game and consumer electronics retailer, announced plans to allocate a portion of its corporate reserves to Bitcoin. The company, which was on the verge of bankruptcy in 2021, successfully capitalized on a historic short squeeze and managed to secure an impressive $4.77 billion in cash and equivalents by February 2025.

3月26日，GameStop Corporation（GME）是北美視頻遊戲和消費電子零售商，宣布計劃將其一部分公司儲量分配給比特幣。該公司在2021年處於破產的邊緣，成功地利用了歷史性的短暫擠壓，並在​​2025年2月之前設法獲得了令人印象深刻的47.7億現金和同等價值。

Largest corporate Bitcoin holdings. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

最大的公司比特幣持有。資料來源：比特幣庫.net

A growing number of US-based and international companies have followed Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) playbook, including the Japanese firm Metaplanet, which recently appointed Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, to its newly established strategic board of advisers. Similarly, the mining conglomerate MARA Holdings (MARA) adopted a Bitcoin treasury policy to “retain all BTC” and increase its exposure through debt offerings.

越來越多的美國和國際公司遵循邁克爾·賽勒（Michael Saylor）的戰略（MSTR）劇本，其中包括日本公司Metaplanet，該公司最近任命了美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的兒子埃里克·特朗普（Eric Trump）擔任其新成立的戰略顧問委員會。同樣，採礦企業集團Mara Holdings（MARA）採用了比特幣財政部政策，以“保留所有BTC”並通過債務增加其曝光率。

There must be a strong reason for Bitcoin investors to sell their holdings, especially as gold is trading just 1.3% below its all-time high of $3,057. For example, while the US administration adopted a pro-crypto stance following Trump’s election, the infrastructure needed for Bitcoin to serve as collateral and integrate into traditional financial systems remains largely undeveloped.

比特幣投資者必須有一個有力的理由出售其持股，尤其是因為黃金的交易僅比其3,057美元的歷史最高點僅1.3％。例如，儘管在特朗普當選之後，美國政府採取了親克賴普托立場，但比特幣將作為抵押品並融入傳統金融系統所需的基礎設施仍然很大程度上並沒有開發。

Bitcoin/USD (orange) vs. gold / S&P 500 index. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

比特幣 /美元（橙色）與金 /標準普爾500指數。資料來源：TradingView / Cointelegraph

The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is limited to cash settlement, preventing in-kind deposits and withdrawals. Fortunately, a potential rule change, currently under review by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, could reduce capital gain distributions and enhance tax efficiency, according to Bitseeker Consulting chief architect Chris J. Terry.

美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）僅限於現金和解，以防止現金存款和提款。幸運的是，根據BitSeeker諮詢公司首席建築師Chris J. Terry的說法，目前正在美國證券交易委員會正在審查的潛在規則更改可能會降低資本收益分配並提高稅收效率。

Regulation and Bitcoin integration into TradFi remains an issue

監管和比特幣集成到Tradfi仍然是一個問題

Banks like JPMorgan primarily serve as intermediaries or custodians for cryptocurrency-related instruments such as derivatives and spot Bitcoin ETFs. The repeal of the SAB 121 accounting rule on Jan. 23—an SEC ruling that imposed strict capital requirements on digital assets—does not necessarily guarantee broader adoption.

像摩根大通這樣的銀行主要是中介機構或託管機構，用於加密貨幣相關的工具，例如衍生物和現場比特幣ETF。 1月23日，廢除了SAB 121會計規則，該規定對數字資產施加了嚴格的資本要求，不一定保證更廣泛的採用。

For example, some traditional investment firms, like Vanguard, still prohibit clients from trading or holding shares of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, and administrators like BNY Mellon have reportedly restricted mutual funds’ exposure to these products. In fact, a significant number of wealth managers and advisers remain unable to offer any cryptocurrency investments to their clients, even when listed on US exchanges.

例如，一些傳統的投資公司，例如Vanguard，仍然禁止客戶交易或持有現貨比特幣ETF的股票，而BNY Mellon等管理人員據報導，限制了共同基金對這些產品的暴露。實際上，即使在美國交易所上市時，許多財富管理人員和顧問仍無法向其客戶提供任何加密貨幣投資。

The Bitcoin derivatives market lacks regulatory clarity, with most exchanges opting to ban North American participants and choosing to register their companies in fiscal havens. Despite the growth of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) over the years, it still accounts for only 23% of Bitcoin’s $56.4 billion futures open interest, while competitors benefit from fewer capital restrictions, easier client onboarding, and less regulatory oversight on trading.

比特幣衍生品市場缺乏監管的清晰度，大多數交易所選擇禁止北美參與者，並選擇在財政避風港註冊其公司。儘管多年來芝加哥商業交易所（CME）的增長，但它仍然僅佔比特幣564億美元期貨期貨的23％，而競爭對手則從較少的資本限制，更容易的客戶入職和貿易監管監督下受益，而競爭對手則受益匪淺。

Related: SEC plans 4 more crypto roundtables on trading, custody, tokenization, DeFi

相關：SEC計劃在交易，監護權，令牌，Defi方面還有4個加密貨幣

Bitcoin futures open interest ranking, USD. Source: CoinGlass

比特幣期貨開放興趣排名，美元。資料來源：小店

Institutional investors remain hesitant to gain exposure to Bitcoin markets due to concerns about market manipulation and a lack of transparency among leading exchanges. The fact that Binance, KuCoin, OK and Kraken have paid significant fines to US authorities for potential anti-money laundering violations and unlicensed operations further fuels the negative sentiment toward the sector.

由於對市場操縱的擔憂和領先的交易所之間缺乏透明度，機構投資者仍然猶豫不決地接觸比特幣市場。 Binance，Kucoin，Ok和Kraken向美國當局支付了重大罰款，以尋求潛在的反洗錢違規行為和無執照的行動，這進一步賦予了對該行業的負面情緒。

Ultimately, the buying interest from a small number of companies is not enough to push Bitcoin’s price to $200,000, and additional integration with the banking sector remains uncertain, despite more favorable regulatory conditions.

最終，少數公司的購買權益不足以將比特幣的價格提高到200,000美元，儘管法規條件更有利，但與銀行業的額外集成仍然不確定。

Until then, Bitcoin’s upside potential will continue to be limited as risk perception remains elevated, especially within the institutional investment community.

在此之前，隨著風險感知的提高，尤其是在機構投資界，比特幣的上升潛力將繼續受到限制。