美元（USD）走強導致比特幣（BTC）價格下跌

為了衡量美元的強弱，使用所謂的美元指數（DXY），該指數是衡量美元與一籃子其他全球貨幣之間的強弱比的指數。

The price of Bitcoin has been sharply declining for a couple of days: the reason could be related to the current strength of the United States dollar (USD).

比特幣價格連續幾天大幅下跌：原因可能與當前美元（USD）走強有關。

In reality, there are several factors that are causing BTC to suffer, but the strength of USD is such that it could be the main reason. 

事實上，導致比特幣下跌的因素很多，但美元的強勢可能是主要原因。

USD very strong: the price of Bitcoin suffers from it

美元非常堅挺：比特幣價格因此受到影響

To measure the strength of the US dollar, the so-called Dollar Index (DXY) is used, which is the index that measures the strength ratio between USD and a basket of other global currencies. 

為了衡量美元的強弱，使用所謂的美元指數（DXY），該指數是衡量美元與一籃子其他全球貨幣之間的強弱比的指數。

According to the data from the site DollarIndex.org, the daily maximum peak of 2024 was reached just yesterday, exceeding 108.4 points, while this morning a very brief peak was also reached above 108.5 points, but it quickly receded.

根據DollarIndex.org網站的數據，昨天剛達到2024年的日最高峰值，超過108.4點，而今天早上也曾達到108.5點上方的一個非常短暫的峰值，但很快就回落了。

The fact is that 2024 began with a Dollar Index at 101.3 points, and that before November the annual peak had stopped at 106.3 points. 

事實上，2024 年伊始，美元指數為 101.3 點，而在 11 月之前，年度高峰已停在 106.3 點。

With Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections on November 5, the Dollar Index began to rise, first marking new annual highs for 2024 in mid-November, and then in the second half of November rising above 107 points.

隨著川普11月5日在美國總統大選中獲勝，美元指數開始上漲，先在11月中旬創下2024年年度新高，然後在11月下半月升至107點之上。

At that point, it was thought that its run was over, but instead, starting from last Wednesday, it resumed. 

那時，人們認為它的運行已經結束，但相反，從上週三開始，它又恢復了。

The impact on the price of Bitcoin from the strength of the US dollar USD

美元走強對比特幣價格的影響 USD

Until Wednesday, the growth of the Dollar Index after the victory of Trump had not had negative consequences on the price of Bitcoin, which went from less than 70,000 USD to more than 100,000 USD.

直到週三，川普勝選後美元指數的上漲並未對比特幣價格產生負面影響，比特幣價格從不到 7 萬美元上漲到了 10 萬美元以上。

In fact, just on Tuesday, December 17, it had reached its all-time high above 108,000 USD. 

事實上，就在 12 月 17 日星期二，它已觸及 108,000 美元上方的歷史新高。

Instead, the sudden surge of the Dollar Index the day before yesterday immediately had a negative impact also on the price of Bitcoin.

相反，前天美元指數的突然飆升也立即對比特幣的價格產生了負面影響。

It should be remembered that, in the medium/long term, the trend of Bitcoin tends to be inversely correlated to that of the Dollar Index, so if DXY rises BTC tends to fall. 

應該記住，從中長期來看，比特幣的走勢往往與美元指數的走勢成反比，因此如果 DXY 上漲，BTC 往往會下跌。

However, after Trump’s victory, while DXY rose from less than 104 points to more than 107 points, the price of Bitcoin rose from less than 70,000 USD to more than 100,000 USD. 

然而，川普獲勝後，美元指數從不到104點上漲至107點以上，而比特幣的價格則從不到7萬美元上漲至超過10萬美元。

So from the beginning of November to mid-December there was a temporary suspension of the inverse correlation between DXY and BTC, due to macro conditions favorable to both USD and Bitcoin. 

因此，從 11 月初到 12 月中旬，由於宏觀條件對美元和比特幣都有利，DXY 和 BTC 之間的負相關關係暫時中止。

The problem of mercoledì

Mercoledì的問題

But what happened on Wednesday that changed the cards on the table?

但周三發生的事情改變了桌面上的牌呢？

It happened that the Fed changed its mind about 2025. 

碰巧聯準會改變了關於2025年的想法。

Until Tuesday, the markets believed that the Fed in 2025 would cut interest rates at least 4 times. Instead, President Powell made it clear that they have changed their minds, and now they are more oriented towards only two cuts.

直到週二，市場都認為聯準會在2025年將至少降息4次。相反，鮑威爾總統明確表示他們已經改變了主意，現在他們更傾向於只進行兩次削減。

The fact is that the Fed’s monetary policy is still restrictive, and the markets were hoping that next year it could become much less so. Instead, after Wednesday, they believe it could remain restrictive for a long time. 

事實上，聯準會的貨幣政策仍然是限制性的，市場希望明年的限制性會大大減弱。相反，他們認​​為週三之後，限制措施可能會長期維持。

In fact, just on Wednesday, the USA stock markets recorded a strong decline. 

事實上，就在周三，美國股市出現強勁下跌。

For example, in a single day, the S&P500 index lost all the gains it had accumulated since mid-October thanks to the so-called “Trump trade”.

例如，由於所謂的“川普交易”，標準普爾500指數在一天之內就失去了自10月中旬以來累積的所有漲幅。

It’s as if a mini-bubble has burst, even though as far as the price of Bitcoin is concerned, it has only returned to the levels of about ten days ago. 

就好像一個小泡沫破裂了一樣，儘管就比特幣的價格而言，它才恢復到十天前的水平。

The near future

不久的將來

In any case, between today and tomorrow a cycle on the crypto markets should close, and another will begin. 

無論如何，從今天到明天，加密貨幣市場的一個週期應該結束，另一個週期將會開始。

At this moment, it is still difficult to say what type of new cycle it will be. 

目前還很難說這會是什麼樣的新周期。

However, such a strong Dollar Index suggests that in the new cycle it should fall. 

然而，如此強勁的美元指數表明，在新周期中美元指數應該會下跌。

For example, in 2016, after Trump’s first electoral victory, the Dollar Index went from 97 to 101 points in November, and then in December it rose again to 103 points.

例如，2016年，川普首次當選後，美元指數在11月從97點升至101點，隨後在12月再次上漲至103點。

At the time, the annual peak was reached on December 28 at 103.3 points, which is just above the level already reached on the 15th of the same month. 

當時，年度高峰於12月28日達到103.3點，略高於同月15日已達到的水準。

This year the first post-election peak was reached on November 22, and the second was reached yesterday, even though at a level slightly higher than that of Wednesday. 

今年選舉後的第一個高峰於 11 月 22 日達到，第二個高峰於昨天達到，儘管水準略高於週三。

If history were to repeat itself, the Dollar Index might not rise significantly much beyond 108 points until the end

如果歷史重演，美元指數到最後可能不會大幅上漲超過108點