美元（USD）走强导致比特币（BTC）价格下跌

为了衡量美元的强弱，使用所谓的美元指数（DXY），该指数是衡量美元与一篮子其他全球货币之间的强弱比的指数。

The price of Bitcoin has been sharply declining for a couple of days: the reason could be related to the current strength of the United States dollar (USD).

比特币价格连续几天大幅下跌：原因可能与当前美元（USD）走强有关。

In reality, there are several factors that are causing BTC to suffer, but the strength of USD is such that it could be the main reason. 

事实上，导致比特币下跌的因素有很多，但美元的强势可能是主要原因。

USD very strong: the price of Bitcoin suffers from it

美元非常坚挺：比特币价格因此受到影响

To measure the strength of the US dollar, the so-called Dollar Index (DXY) is used, which is the index that measures the strength ratio between USD and a basket of other global currencies. 

为了衡量美元的强弱，使用所谓的美元指数（DXY），该指数是衡量美元与一篮子其他全球货币之间的强弱比的指数。

According to the data from the site DollarIndex.org, the daily maximum peak of 2024 was reached just yesterday, exceeding 108.4 points, while this morning a very brief peak was also reached above 108.5 points, but it quickly receded.

根据DollarIndex.org网站的数据，昨天刚刚达到2024年的日最高峰值，超过108.4点，而今天早上也曾达到108.5点上方的一个非常短暂的峰值，但很快就回落了。

The fact is that 2024 began with a Dollar Index at 101.3 points, and that before November the annual peak had stopped at 106.3 points. 

事实上，2024 年伊始，美元指数为 101.3 点，而在 11 月之前，年度峰值已停在 106.3 点。

With Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections on November 5, the Dollar Index began to rise, first marking new annual highs for 2024 in mid-November, and then in the second half of November rising above 107 points.

随着特朗普11月5日在美国总统大选中获胜，美元指数开始上涨，先是在11月中旬创下2024年年度新高，随后在11月下半月升至107点之上。

At that point, it was thought that its run was over, but instead, starting from last Wednesday, it resumed. 

那时，人们认为它的运行已经结束，但相反，从上周三开始，它又恢复了。

The impact on the price of Bitcoin from the strength of the US dollar USD

美元走强对比特币价格的影响 USD

Until Wednesday, the growth of the Dollar Index after the victory of Trump had not had negative consequences on the price of Bitcoin, which went from less than 70,000 USD to more than 100,000 USD.

直到周三，特朗普获胜后美元指数的上涨并未对比特币价格产生负面影响，比特币价格从不到 7 万美元上涨到了 10 万美元以上。

In fact, just on Tuesday, December 17, it had reached its all-time high above 108,000 USD. 

事实上，就在 12 月 17 日星期二，它已触及 108,000 美元上方的历史新高。

Instead, the sudden surge of the Dollar Index the day before yesterday immediately had a negative impact also on the price of Bitcoin.

相反，前天美元指数的突然飙升也立即对比特币的价格产生了负面影响。

It should be remembered that, in the medium/long term, the trend of Bitcoin tends to be inversely correlated to that of the Dollar Index, so if DXY rises BTC tends to fall. 

值得注意的是，从中长期来看，比特币的走势往往与美元指数的走势成反比，因此如果 DXY 上涨，BTC 往往会下跌。

However, after Trump’s victory, while DXY rose from less than 104 points to more than 107 points, the price of Bitcoin rose from less than 70,000 USD to more than 100,000 USD. 

然而，特朗普获胜后，美元指数从不到104点上涨至107点以上，而比特币的价格则从不足7万美元上涨至超过10万美元。

So from the beginning of November to mid-December there was a temporary suspension of the inverse correlation between DXY and BTC, due to macro conditions favorable to both USD and Bitcoin. 

因此，从 11 月初到 12 月中旬，由于宏观条件对美元和比特币都有利，DXY 和 BTC 之间的负相关关系暂时中止。

The problem of mercoledì

Mercoledì的问题

But what happened on Wednesday that changed the cards on the table?

但周三发生的事情改变了桌面上的牌呢？

It happened that the Fed changed its mind about 2025. 

碰巧美联储改变了关于2025年的想法。

Until Tuesday, the markets believed that the Fed in 2025 would cut interest rates at least 4 times. Instead, President Powell made it clear that they have changed their minds, and now they are more oriented towards only two cuts.

直到周二，市场都认为美联储在2025年将至少降息4次。相反，鲍威尔总统明确表示他们已经改变了主意，现在他们更倾向于只进行两次削减。

The fact is that the Fed’s monetary policy is still restrictive, and the markets were hoping that next year it could become much less so. Instead, after Wednesday, they believe it could remain restrictive for a long time. 

事实上，美联储的货币政策仍然是限制性的，市场希望明年的限制性会大大减弱。相反，他们认为周三之后，限制措施可能会长期保持。

In fact, just on Wednesday, the USA stock markets recorded a strong decline. 

事实上，就在周三，美国股市出现强劲下跌。

For example, in a single day, the S&P500 index lost all the gains it had accumulated since mid-October thanks to the so-called “Trump trade”.

例如，由于所谓的“特朗普交易”，标准普尔500指数在一天之内就失去了自10月中旬以来积累的所有涨幅。

It’s as if a mini-bubble has burst, even though as far as the price of Bitcoin is concerned, it has only returned to the levels of about ten days ago. 

就好像一个小泡沫破裂了一样，尽管就比特币的价格而言，它才恢复到十天前的水平。

The near future

不久的将来

In any case, between today and tomorrow a cycle on the crypto markets should close, and another will begin. 

无论如何，从今天到明天，加密货币市场的一个周期应该结束，另一个周期将会开始。

At this moment, it is still difficult to say what type of new cycle it will be. 

目前还很难说这将是一个什么样的新周期。

However, such a strong Dollar Index suggests that in the new cycle it should fall. 

然而，如此强劲的美元指数表明，在新周期中美元指数应该会下跌。

For example, in 2016, after Trump’s first electoral victory, the Dollar Index went from 97 to 101 points in November, and then in December it rose again to 103 points.

例如，2016年，特朗普首次当选后，美元指数在11月从97点升至101点，随后在12月再次上涨至103点。

At the time, the annual peak was reached on December 28 at 103.3 points, which is just above the level already reached on the 15th of the same month. 

当时，年度峰值于12月28日达到103.3点，略高于同月15日已经达到的水平。

This year the first post-election peak was reached on November 22, and the second was reached yesterday, even though at a level slightly higher than that of Wednesday. 

今年选举后的第一个峰值于 11 月 22 日达到，第二个峰值于昨天达到，尽管水平略高于周三。

If history were to repeat itself, the Dollar Index might not rise significantly much beyond 108 points until the end

如果历史重演，美元指数到最后可能不会大幅上涨超过108点