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滯脹擔憂最近困擾著投資者,給比特幣等加密貨幣蒙上了陰影。美國 GDP 成長疲軟和 PCE 指數衡量的通膨上升共同創造了典型的滯膨環境。聯準會面臨兩難的困境,其管理經濟的傳統工具變得無效。與歷史上的滯脹時期相似,這意味著比特幣和其他加密貨幣的潛在下跌。即將舉行的聯邦公開市場委員會會議具有重要意義,因為它將決定美國貨幣政策的方向,並可能影響傳統和加密市場的市場情緒。
Stagflationary Specter Looms over Cryptocurrencies, Casting a Shadow on Bitcoin
滯脹幽靈籠罩著加密貨幣,為比特幣蒙上了陰影
Recent economic data emanating from the United States has instilled a sense of apprehension among investors, as concerns mount over the specter of stagflation. This formidable prospect has sent a ripple of uncertainty through the cryptocurrency markets, particularly affecting the flagship digital asset, Bitcoin.
由於對滯脹幽靈的擔憂加劇,美國近期公佈的經濟數據給投資者帶來了擔憂。這種巨大的前景為加密貨幣市場帶來了不確定性,尤其影響了旗艦數位資產比特幣。
Economic Indicators Paint a Bleak Picture
經濟指標描繪出一幅黯淡的景象
Leading crypto trader ELJA has been meticulously monitoring the recent economic indicators. Of particular concern, according to ELJA, is the significant shortfall in US GDP growth, which registered a meager 1.6%, falling well short of analyst expectations. This sluggish growth has been accompanied by an alarming spike in core inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. The PCE index, closely scrutinized by the Federal Reserve for its inflation prognosis, has surged from 2% to 3.7%, representing an alarming increase of 85%.
領先的加密貨幣交易商 ELJA 一直在密切關注近期的經濟指標。 ELJA 表示,特別令人擔憂的是美國 GDP 成長大幅下滑,僅成長 1.6%,遠低於分析師的預期。這種緩慢的成長伴隨著以個人消費支出(PCE)指數衡量的核心通膨的驚人飆升。聯準會密切關注其通膨預測的PCE指數已從2%飆升至3.7%,增幅高達85%,令人震驚。
Stagflationary Trap: A Policymaker's Conundrum
滯脹陷阱:政策制定者的難題
The confluence of sluggish economic growth and escalating inflation paints a classic picture of stagflation, a dismal scenario characterized by stagnant or negative growth coupled with stubbornly high inflation. This unique economic environment presents a formidable challenge to policymakers, particularly the US Federal Reserve (FED).
經濟成長乏力和通貨膨脹不斷升級共同描繪了一幅典型的滯脹圖景,這是一種以停滯或負增長加上頑固的高通膨為特徵的慘淡情景。這種獨特的經濟環境為政策制定者,特別是聯準會(FED)帶來了巨大的挑戰。
Traditionally, the Fed employs a repertoire of tools to influence the economy's trajectory. During economic downturns, the Fed typically lowers interest rates to stimulate borrowing and investment, thereby fostering economic activity. Conversely, when inflation rears its head, the Fed raises interest rates to temper the economy and curb price increases.
傳統上,聯準會使用一系列工具來影響經濟軌跡。在經濟衰退期間,聯準會通常會降低利率以刺激借貸和投資,從而促進經濟活動。相反,當通貨膨脹抬頭時,聯準會會提高利率來緩和經濟並抑制物價上漲。
However, stagflation presents a multifaceted dilemma. When both sluggish growth and high inflation coexist, the Fed's customary toolkit becomes largely ineffective. Lowering interest rates to address slow growth could exacerbate inflation, while raising interest rates to combat inflation could further stifle economic activity. This precarious situation leaves the Fed with limited options and potentially difficult choices.
然而,滯脹帶來了多方面的困境。當成長乏力和高通膨並存時,聯準會的慣用工具箱基本上變得無效。降低利率以應對成長緩慢可能會加劇通膨,而提高利率以應對通膨可能會進一步抑制經濟活動。這種不穩定的情況使聯準會的選擇有限,而且可能面臨困難。
Bitcoin Feels the Heat of Economic Uncertainties
比特幣感受到了經濟不確定性的影響
ELJA and numerous other market analysts draw parallels between the current economic climate and historical periods of stagflation, particularly those witnessed in the 1970s and 1980s. During these episodes, traditional stock markets experienced significant declines. Given the often-observed correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional markets, especially during periods of turbulence, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could face intense selling pressure if history were to repeat itself.
ELJA 和許多其他市場分析師將當前的經濟氣候與歷史上的滯脹時期(特別是 1970 年代和 1980 年代的滯脹時期)進行了比較。在這些時期,傳統股市經歷了大幅下跌。鑑於加密貨幣與傳統市場之間經常觀察到的相關性,尤其是在動盪時期,如果歷史重演,比特幣和其他加密貨幣可能面臨巨大的拋售壓力。
Eyes on the FOMC Meeting: A Pivotal Moment
關注 FOMC 會議:關鍵時刻
All eyes are now fixed on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled to take place in just four days. This highly anticipated meeting holds immense significance as it will determine the future direction of US monetary policy. The decisions made by the FOMC are likely to have profound implications for both traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency industry in the months ahead.
現在所有的目光都集中在即將舉行的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議上,該會議定於四天內舉行。這次備受期待的會議意義重大,因為它將決定美國貨幣政策的未來方向。聯邦公開市場委員會所做的決定可能會對未來幾個月的傳統金融市場和加密貨幣產業產生深遠影響。
Investors worldwide eagerly await the outcome of the FOMC meeting. The crypto market, in particular, remains on tenterhooks as traders closely scrutinize economic indicators and developments that could influence market sentiment and, ultimately, asset prices. This period of uncertainty is likely to continue until the FOMC meeting sheds light on the Fed's strategy for navigating the turbulent economic landscape.
全球投資者熱切等待聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議的結果。尤其是加密貨幣市場仍然提心吊膽,因為交易員密切關注可能影響市場情緒並最終影響資產價格的經濟指標和事態發展。這段不確定時期可能會持續下去,直到聯邦公開市場委員會會議闡明聯準會應對動盪的經濟狀況的策略為止。
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