隨著悲觀情緒的加劇，現貨 ETH ETF 獲得批准的希望逐漸減弱

人們普遍對美國監管機構批准以太坊 ETF 現貨的可能性感到悲觀，據彭博 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 稱，目前可能性僅為 25%。儘管加密貨幣行業對現貨比特幣 ETF 的成功抱有更廣泛的預期，但 SEC 的參與和積極跡象的缺乏表明這種可能性正在下降。

Pessimism Mounts over Prospects of Spot ETH ETF Approval

現貨 ETH ETF 核准前景悲觀情緒加劇

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作者：[作者姓名]

March 26, 2024

2024 年 3 月 26 日

Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF analyst, has cast doubt on the prospects of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Balchunas estimates that the probability of approval has dwindled to a mere 25%, warning investors against holding their breath.

彭博 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 對現貨以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 獲得美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 批准的前景表示懷疑。 Balchunas 估計獲得批准的可能性已降至僅 25%，警告投資者不要屏息以待。

Absence of Engagement Raises Concerns

缺乏參與引發擔憂

According to Balchunas, there has been a conspicuous lack of communication between the SEC and potential ETF applicants seeking to launch a spot ETH product. This stark contrast with the SEC's hands-on approach leading up to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has raised red flags.

Balchunas 表示，SEC 與尋求推出現貨 ETH 產品的潛在 ETF 申請人之間明顯缺乏溝通。這與 SEC 在批准現貨比特幣 ETF 時的實際做法形成鮮明對比，引發了危險信號。

During the Bitcoin ETF approval process, the SEC engaged in extensive dialogue with applicants, providing detailed guidance on filing amendments and holding discussions with exchanges planning to trade these products. In contrast, the current absence of such interactions with potential ETH ETF issuers suggests a markedly reduced appetite for approval, Balchunas asserts.

在比特幣 ETF 審批過程中，美國證券交易委員會與申請人進行了廣泛的對話，提供了有關提交修正案的詳細指導，並與計劃交易這些產品的交易所進行了討論。 Balchunas 斷言，相比之下，目前與潛在 ETH ETF 發行人缺乏此類互動，表明審批興趣明顯下降。

Concerns Over Ethereum's Security Status

對以太坊安全狀況的擔憂

Complicating matters further is the potential classification of Ethereum as a security product by the SEC. The regulator has reportedly issued subpoenas to Ethereum businesses to investigate the nature of ETH's use cases. This move indicates the SEC's desire to establish a more definitive basis for categorizing Ethereum as a security, which could hinder ETF approval.

讓事情變得更加複雜的是美國證券交易委員會可能將以太坊歸類為安全產品。據報道，監管機構已向以太坊企業發出傳票，以調查 ETH 用例的性質。此舉表明 SEC 希望為以太坊分類建立更明確的基礎，這可能會阻礙 ETF 的批准。

Implications for Investors

對投資者的影響

Balchunas' pessimism has dampened the initial enthusiasm surrounding the prospect of a spot ETH ETF. Investors who were eagerly anticipating the launch of such a product may need to temper their expectations.

Balchunas 的悲觀情緒澆熄了人們對現貨 ETH ETF 前景的最初熱情。熱切期待此類產品推出的投資者可能需要降低預期。

The SEC's reservations about approving a spot ETH ETF stem from concerns about the product's underlying asset, Ethereum. The regulator is seeking clarity on whether Ethereum satisfies the definition of a security, which would subject it to a stricter regulatory framework.

美國證券交易委員會對批准現貨 ETH ETF 持保留態度，源自於對該產品的基礎資產以太坊的擔憂。監管機構正在尋求澄清以太坊是否滿足證券的定義，這將使其受到更嚴格的監管框架的約束。

Pending further guidance from the SEC, investors should proceed with caution when considering investments in Ethereum-related products. The approval of a spot ETH ETF remains uncertain, and the SEC's ongoing investigation into Ethereum's security status could potentially cast a shadow over the asset class.

在美國證券交易委員會的進一步指導之前，投資者在考慮投資以太坊相關產品時應謹慎行事。現貨 ETH ETF 的批准仍不確定，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 對以太坊安全狀況的持續調查可能會為該資產類別蒙上陰影。

Analysts' Outlook

分析師展望

Market analysts are divided on the likelihood of a spot ETH ETF gaining approval. Some believe that the SEC's concerns are overblown and that approval is inevitable, while others share Balchunas' pessimism, arguing that the regulatory hurdles are too significant to overcome.

市場分析師對於現貨 ETH ETF 獲得批准的可能性存在分歧。有些人認為美國證券交易委員會的擔憂被誇大了，批准是不可避免的，而另一些人則與巴爾丘納斯一樣悲觀，認為監管障礙太大而難以克服。

In the meantime, investors seeking exposure to Ethereum can consider other investment vehicles, such as spot Ethereum exchange-traded notes (ETNs) or Ethereum-based derivatives. These products provide indirect exposure to Ethereum's price movements without the need for direct ownership of the underlying asset.

同時，尋求以太坊投資的投資者可以考慮其他投資工具，例如現貨以太坊交易所交易票據（ETN）或基於以太坊的衍生品。這些產品提供了對以太坊價格變動的間接敞口，而無需直接擁有基礎資產。

However, it is important to note that these alternative investment vehicles come with their own risks and should be evaluated carefully before making any investment decisions. Investors should seek professional financial advice to determine the most suitable investment strategy based on their individual circumstances and risk tolerance.

然而，值得注意的是，這些另類投資工具都有其自身的風險，在做出任何投資決定之前應仔細評估。投資人應尋求專業的理財建議，根據個人情況和風險承受能力來決定最適合的投資策略。