随着悲观情绪的加剧，现货 ETH ETF 获得批准的希望逐渐减弱

人们普遍对美国监管机构批准以太坊 ETF 现货的可能性感到悲观，据彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 称，目前该可能性仅为 25%。尽管加密货币行业对现货比特币 ETF 的成功抱有更广泛的预期，但 SEC 的参与和积极迹象的缺乏表明这种可能性正在下降。

Pessimism Mounts over Prospects of Spot ETH ETF Approval

现货 ETH ETF 获批前景悲观情绪加剧

By [Author's Name]

作者：[作者姓名]

March 26, 2024

2024 年 3 月 26 日

Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF analyst, has cast doubt on the prospects of a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Balchunas estimates that the probability of approval has dwindled to a mere 25%, warning investors against holding their breath.

彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 对现货以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 获得美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准的前景表示怀疑。 Balchunas 估计获得批准的可能性已降至仅 25%，警告投资者不要屏息以待。

Absence of Engagement Raises Concerns

缺乏参与引发担忧

According to Balchunas, there has been a conspicuous lack of communication between the SEC and potential ETF applicants seeking to launch a spot ETH product. This stark contrast with the SEC's hands-on approach leading up to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has raised red flags.

Balchunas 表示，SEC 与寻求推出现货 ETH 产品的潜在 ETF 申请人之间明显缺乏沟通。这与 SEC 在批准现货比特币 ETF 时的实际做法形成鲜明对比，引发了危险信号。

During the Bitcoin ETF approval process, the SEC engaged in extensive dialogue with applicants, providing detailed guidance on filing amendments and holding discussions with exchanges planning to trade these products. In contrast, the current absence of such interactions with potential ETH ETF issuers suggests a markedly reduced appetite for approval, Balchunas asserts.

在比特币 ETF 审批过程中，美国证券交易委员会与申请人进行了广泛的对话，提供了有关提交修正案的详细指导，并与计划交易这些产品的交易所进行了讨论。 Balchunas 断言，相比之下，目前与潜在 ETH ETF 发行人缺乏此类互动，表明审批兴趣明显下降。

Concerns Over Ethereum's Security Status

对以太坊安全状况的担忧

Complicating matters further is the potential classification of Ethereum as a security product by the SEC. The regulator has reportedly issued subpoenas to Ethereum businesses to investigate the nature of ETH's use cases. This move indicates the SEC's desire to establish a more definitive basis for categorizing Ethereum as a security, which could hinder ETF approval.

让事情变得更加复杂的是美国证券交易委员会可能将以太坊归类为安全产品。据报道，监管机构已向以太坊企业发出传票，以调查 ETH 用例的性质。此举表明 SEC 希望为以太坊分类建立更明确的基础，这可能会阻碍 ETF 的批准。

Implications for Investors

对投资者的影响

Balchunas' pessimism has dampened the initial enthusiasm surrounding the prospect of a spot ETH ETF. Investors who were eagerly anticipating the launch of such a product may need to temper their expectations.

Balchunas 的悲观情绪浇灭了人们对现货 ETH ETF 前景的最初热情。热切期待此类产品推出的投资者可能需要降低预期。

The SEC's reservations about approving a spot ETH ETF stem from concerns about the product's underlying asset, Ethereum. The regulator is seeking clarity on whether Ethereum satisfies the definition of a security, which would subject it to a stricter regulatory framework.

美国证券交易委员会对批准现货 ETH ETF 持保留态度，源于对该产品的基础资产以太坊的担忧。监管机构正在寻求澄清以太坊是否满足证券的定义，这将使其受到更严格的监管框架的约束。

Pending further guidance from the SEC, investors should proceed with caution when considering investments in Ethereum-related products. The approval of a spot ETH ETF remains uncertain, and the SEC's ongoing investigation into Ethereum's security status could potentially cast a shadow over the asset class.

在美国证券交易委员会的进一步指导之前，投资者在考虑投资以太坊相关产品时应谨慎行事。现货 ETH ETF 的批准仍不确定，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 对以太坊安全状况的持续调查可能会给该资产类别蒙上阴影。

Analysts' Outlook

分析师展望

Market analysts are divided on the likelihood of a spot ETH ETF gaining approval. Some believe that the SEC's concerns are overblown and that approval is inevitable, while others share Balchunas' pessimism, arguing that the regulatory hurdles are too significant to overcome.

市场分析师对于现货 ETH ETF 获得批准的可能性存在分歧。一些人认为美国证券交易委员会的担忧被夸大了，批准是不可避免的，而另一些人则与巴尔丘纳斯一样悲观，认为监管障碍太大而难以克服。

In the meantime, investors seeking exposure to Ethereum can consider other investment vehicles, such as spot Ethereum exchange-traded notes (ETNs) or Ethereum-based derivatives. These products provide indirect exposure to Ethereum's price movements without the need for direct ownership of the underlying asset.

与此同时，寻求以太坊投资的投资者可以考虑其他投资工具，例如现货以太坊交易所交易票据（ETN）或基于以太坊的衍生品。这些产品提供了对以太坊价格变动的间接敞口，而无需直接拥有基础资产。

However, it is important to note that these alternative investment vehicles come with their own risks and should be evaluated carefully before making any investment decisions. Investors should seek professional financial advice to determine the most suitable investment strategy based on their individual circumstances and risk tolerance.

然而，值得注意的是，这些另类投资工具都有其自身的风险，在做出任何投资决定之前应仔细评估。投资者应寻求专业的理财建议，根据个人情况和风险承受能力确定最适合的投资策略。