在產生第一個Solana塊五年後，該網絡進入了一個新的恐懼和不確定性時期

公平地說，第1層區塊鏈以前克服了更大的障礙，在8美元中表現出令人難以置信的捲土重來

Five years after the first Solana block was generated, the network is entering a new period of fear and uncertainty as the once-lucrative memecoin-casino starts to wind down.

在產生第一個Solana塊的五年後，隨著曾經持續性的Memecoin-Casino開始減少的新恐懼和不確定性。

To be fair, the layer 1 blockchain has overcome bigger obstacles before, staging an incredible comeback from just $8 in the aftermath of the 2022 FTX collapse to a new all-time high above $294 in January this year.

公平地說，第1層區塊鏈以前已經克服了更大的障礙，在2022年FTX崩潰之後，令人難以置信的捲土重來，到今年1月的新歷史高度高於294美元。

But the sudden evaporation of the memecoin market could pose a big challenge over the coming months — where is the activity and fees going to come from next?

但是，在接下來的幾個月中，紀念市場突然蒸發可能構成一個巨大的挑戰 - 下一個活動和費用將來自哪裡？

After peaking in January, memecoin activity has nose-dived rapidly following a string of scandals and celebrity rug pulls, along with the dawning realization that memes can be every bit as extractive as any VC coin.

在一月份達到頂峰之後，Memecoin活動在一連串的醜聞和名人地毯拉力之後迅速進行了鼻子潛水，同時實現了Memes的意識，即Memes可以像任何VC硬幣一樣具有挖掘。

More than a decade on from the launch of Dogecoin, it would take a brave soul to predict the memecoins are done for good. But has the memecoin moment passed? And if so, what are the implications for Solana?

從Dogecoin推出的十多年裡，要預測Memecoins的勇敢靈魂將永遠進行。但是，模因時刻過去了嗎？如果是這樣，對Solana有什麼影響？

Solana’s memecoin market crash: Revenue and volume

Solana的Memecoin市場崩潰：收入和數量

The latest statistics make grim reading. Solana network revenue has plunged by 93% since the January peak, with transaction fees down 83% in the past month alone. Decentralized exchange volumes fell from a daily peak of $35.9 billion on Jan. 21 to just $979.5 million on March 15 — the lowest figures recorded since October last year, while Pump.fun’s daily volume is down by 70%.

最新的統計數據使閱讀嚴峻。自1月峰以來，Solana Network收入就下降了93％，僅在過去一個月中，交易費用下降了83％。分散的交換量從1月21日的每日峰值359億美元降至3月15日的9.795億美元，這是自去年10月以來記錄的最低數字，而Pump.Fun的每日量下降了70％。

Actively daily addresses have also more than halved from 6.4 million in November to 2.8 million in March, according to Token Terminal.

根據Token Terminal的數據，每天的每日講話也從11月的640萬減少到3月的280萬人。

And following the failure of inflation-busting proposal SIM-228 last week, the network is still being subsidized to the tune of $228 million each month, while taking just $39.25M in fees in the past 30 days. Figures compiled by Helius last year suggest that more than half of all validators would be unprofitable without subsidies.Adding to the gloom, 11.2 million Solana (SOL) was unlocked on March 1, hitting the price of SOL, which is now down 58% from the peak.

在上週發生通貨膨脹的提案SIM-228失敗之後，該網絡仍被補貼至每個月的2.28億美元，而在過去30天中僅收取了3925萬美元的費用。去年由Helius彙編的數字表明，沒有補貼的情況下，所有驗證者中有一半以上是無利可圖的。對《憂鬱症》的添加，3月1日解鎖了1,120萬索拉納（SOL），達到了SOL的價格，而SOL的價格現在比峰值下降了58％。

“Today, it’s not unfair to say Solana is a ‘memecoin economy’,” Messari analyst Sunny Shi said in a February 26 thread highlighting the issue. “And that means a deep contraction in memecoin volumes could cause a cascade of revenue declines.”

“今天，說索拉納是一種'紀念經濟'並不公平，”彌賽亞分析師Sunny Shi在2月26日的一個線程中強調了這一問題。 “這意味著，在紀念因素上的收縮可能會導致一系列收入下降。”

We have passed ‘peak memecoin’ this cycle

我們已經通過了這個週期的“峰值紀念”

Former Ethereum-maxi turned Solana memecoin enjoyer Kain Warwick from Infinex believes we probably have passed peak memecoin, at least for this stage of the cycle.

來自Infinex的前以太坊Maxi將Solana Memecoin Memecoin享用者Kain Warwick認為我們可能已經通過了Memecoin，至少在周期的這個階段。

“I’m not ready to declare memecoins dead yet,” he says but adds: “They’re a lot deader than they used to be. So I am willing to say that the likelihood of us returning to an environment where 90% of the attention is on memecoins in the short term feels unlikely to me.”

他說：“我還沒有準備好宣布Memecoins死亡，但他們比以前要死了很多。因此，我願意說，我們返回一個環境的可能性，在短期內，有90％的注意力在Memecoin上對我來說不太可能對我。”

Helius founder and Solana maximalist Mert Mumtaz also thinks we may have seen the zenith of memecoin popularity but points out the current lull is linked to macro conditions that have hammered risk assets more generally.

Helius創始人兼Solana Maximalist Mert Mumtaz還認為我們可能已經看到了Memecoin受歡迎程度的頂峰，但指出當前的平息與宏觀條件有關，這些宏觀條件更普遍地錘擊了風險資產。

“Memecoin decline, in is somewhat temporary in that all risk ‘assets’ (I understand calling memecoins an asset is a stretch) are declining globally, but also BTC, ETH, SOL are all down massively,” he says.

他說：“ Memecoin的下降，有點暫時，因為所有風險'資產'（我知道將Memecoins稱為資產是一種勢頭）在全球範圍內正在下降，但BTC，ETH，SOL都大大降低。”

“I think they will come back though I doubt it will be to the same extent. One key theme across all crypto cycles is that they’ve all had massive speculative elements (ICOs, NFTs, memes) — so it’d be a very strong claim to assume they never come back.”

“我認為他們會回來的，儘管我懷疑這會在同一程度上。所有加密貨幣週期中的一個關鍵主題是，他們都有大量投機元素（ICOS，NFTS，模因） - 因此，假設他們永遠不會回來，這是一個非常有力的聲稱。”

Memecoins have played a huge part in Solana’s success to date, accounting for up to 70% of Solana DEX volumes in February. Memecoin-dependent Telegram bots, launchpads and trading apps generated approximately 60% of Solana’s $3.3 billion app revenue per year.

Memecoins在迄今為止的成功中發揮了重要作用，佔2月份的Solana Dex卷的70％。依賴Memecoin的電報機器人，Launchpads和Trading Apps每年產生33億美元應用程序收入的約60％。

Interdependent revenue for memecoin trading apps

Memecoin交易應用程序的相互依存收入

Amplifying the effects is the fact that a number of big memecoin trading apps rely on each other for revenue. A single memecoin trade can create revenue for five distinct apps, as Messari shows below.

放大效果的事實是，許多大型Memecoin交易應用程序相互依賴於收入。如下所示，單個Memecoin貿易可以為五個不同的應用程序創造收入。

Matthew Nay, a Messari research analyst who collates Solana’s quarterly report, explains that this inter-dependency is because Pump.fun takes the fees initially from a memecoin’s launch, but after a token graduates and launches on Raydium, the automated market maker then gets the fees.

彌賽亞研究分析師馬修·奈（Matthew Nay）校道了索拉納（Solana）的季度報告，他解釋說，這種相互依存的是因為pump.fun最初從成員的發布中獲得了費用，但是在代幣畢業生並在Raydium上推出了Raydium之後，自動營銷商會收取費用。

But as many users prefer trading on Jupiter, that aggregator gets a cut of those fees, as does Raydium. Telegram bot BonkBot, meanwhile, takes its own trading fees while also providing fees for Jupiter and Raydium downstream, and the Photon

但是，由於許多用戶更喜歡在木星上進行交易，匯總者和Raydium一樣都會削減這些費用。與此同時，電報機器人Bonkbot繳納了自己的交易費