在产生第一个Solana块五年后，该网络进入了一个新的恐惧和不确定性时期

公平地说，第1层区块链以前克服了更大的障碍，在8美元中表现出令人难以置信的卷土重来

Five years after the first Solana block was generated, the network is entering a new period of fear and uncertainty as the once-lucrative memecoin-casino starts to wind down.

在产生第一个Solana块的五年后，随着曾经持续性的Memecoin-Casino开始减少的新恐惧和不确定性。

To be fair, the layer 1 blockchain has overcome bigger obstacles before, staging an incredible comeback from just $8 in the aftermath of the 2022 FTX collapse to a new all-time high above $294 in January this year.

公平地说，第1层区块链以前已经克服了更大的障碍，在2022年FTX崩溃之后，令人难以置信的卷土重来，到今年1月的新历史高度高于294美元。

But the sudden evaporation of the memecoin market could pose a big challenge over the coming months — where is the activity and fees going to come from next?

但是，在接下来的几个月中，纪念市场突然蒸发可能构成一个巨大的挑战 - 下一个活动和费用将来自哪里？

After peaking in January, memecoin activity has nose-dived rapidly following a string of scandals and celebrity rug pulls, along with the dawning realization that memes can be every bit as extractive as any VC coin.

在一月份达到顶峰之后，Memecoin活动在一连串的丑闻和名人地毯拉力之后迅速进行了鼻子潜水，同时实现了Memes的意识，即Memes可以像任何VC硬币一样具有挖掘。

More than a decade on from the launch of Dogecoin, it would take a brave soul to predict the memecoins are done for good. But has the memecoin moment passed? And if so, what are the implications for Solana?

从Dogecoin推出的十多年里，要预测Memecoins的勇敢灵魂将永远进行。但是，模因时刻过去了吗？如果是这样，对Solana有什么影响？

Solana’s memecoin market crash: Revenue and volume

Solana的Memecoin市场崩溃：收入和数量

The latest statistics make grim reading. Solana network revenue has plunged by 93% since the January peak, with transaction fees down 83% in the past month alone. Decentralized exchange volumes fell from a daily peak of $35.9 billion on Jan. 21 to just $979.5 million on March 15 — the lowest figures recorded since October last year, while Pump.fun’s daily volume is down by 70%.

最新的统计数据使阅读严峻。自1月峰以来，Solana Network收入就下降了93％，仅在过去一个月中，交易费用下降了83％。分散的交换量从1月21日的每日峰值359亿美元降至3月15日的9.795亿美元，这是自去年10月以来记录的最低数字，而Pump.Fun的每日量下降了70％。

Actively daily addresses have also more than halved from 6.4 million in November to 2.8 million in March, according to Token Terminal.

根据Token Terminal的数据，每天的每日讲话也从11月的640万减少到3月的280万人。

And following the failure of inflation-busting proposal SIM-228 last week, the network is still being subsidized to the tune of $228 million each month, while taking just $39.25M in fees in the past 30 days. Figures compiled by Helius last year suggest that more than half of all validators would be unprofitable without subsidies.Adding to the gloom, 11.2 million Solana (SOL) was unlocked on March 1, hitting the price of SOL, which is now down 58% from the peak.

在上周发生通货膨胀的提案SIM-228失败之后，该网络仍被补贴至每个月的2.28亿美元，而在过去30天中仅收取了3925万美元的费用。去年由Helius汇编的数字表明，没有补贴的情况下，所有验证者中有一半以上是无利可图的。对《忧郁症》的添加，3月1日解锁了1,120万索拉纳（SOL），达到了SOL的价格，而SOL的价格现在比峰值下降了58％。

“Today, it’s not unfair to say Solana is a ‘memecoin economy’,” Messari analyst Sunny Shi said in a February 26 thread highlighting the issue. “And that means a deep contraction in memecoin volumes could cause a cascade of revenue declines.”

“今天，说索拉纳是一种'纪念经济'并不公平，”弥赛亚分析师Sunny Shi在2月26日的一个线程中强调了这一问题。 “这意味着，在纪念因素上的收缩可能会导致一系列收入下降。”

We have passed ‘peak memecoin’ this cycle

我们已经通过了这个周期的“峰值纪念”

Former Ethereum-maxi turned Solana memecoin enjoyer Kain Warwick from Infinex believes we probably have passed peak memecoin, at least for this stage of the cycle.

来自Infinex的前以太坊Maxi将Solana Memecoin Memecoin享用者Kain Warwick认为我们可能已经通过了Memecoin，至少在周期的这个阶段。

“I’m not ready to declare memecoins dead yet,” he says but adds: “They’re a lot deader than they used to be. So I am willing to say that the likelihood of us returning to an environment where 90% of the attention is on memecoins in the short term feels unlikely to me.”

他说：“我还没有准备好宣布Memecoins死亡，但他们比以前要死了很多。因此，我愿意说，我们返回一个环境的可能性，在短期内，有90％的注意力在Memecoin上对我来说不太可能对我。”

Helius founder and Solana maximalist Mert Mumtaz also thinks we may have seen the zenith of memecoin popularity but points out the current lull is linked to macro conditions that have hammered risk assets more generally.

Helius创始人兼Solana Maximalist Mert Mumtaz还认为我们可能已经看到了Memecoin受欢迎程度的顶峰，但指出当前的平息与宏观条件有关，这些宏观条件更普遍地锤击了风险资产。

“Memecoin decline, in is somewhat temporary in that all risk ‘assets’ (I understand calling memecoins an asset is a stretch) are declining globally, but also BTC, ETH, SOL are all down massively,” he says.

他说：“ Memecoin的下降，有点暂时，因为所有风险'资产'（我知道将Memecoins称为资产是一种势头）在全球范围内正在下降，但BTC，ETH，SOL都大大降低。”

“I think they will come back though I doubt it will be to the same extent. One key theme across all crypto cycles is that they’ve all had massive speculative elements (ICOs, NFTs, memes) — so it’d be a very strong claim to assume they never come back.”

“我认为他们会回来，尽管我怀疑这与所有加密周期的一个关键主题一样，他们都有大量的投机元素（ICO，NFTS，模因） - 因此，假设他们永远不会回来，这是一个非常有力的声称。”

Memecoins have played a huge part in Solana’s success to date, accounting for up to 70% of Solana DEX volumes in February. Memecoin-dependent Telegram bots, launchpads and trading apps generated approximately 60% of Solana’s $3.3 billion app revenue per year.

Memecoins在迄今为止的成功中发挥了重要作用，占2月份的Solana Dex卷的70％。依赖Memecoin的电报机器人，Launchpads和Trading Apps每年产生33亿美元应用程序收入的约60％。

Interdependent revenue for memecoin trading apps

Memecoin交易应用程序的相互依存收入

Amplifying the effects is the fact that a number of big memecoin trading apps rely on each other for revenue. A single memecoin trade can create revenue for five distinct apps, as Messari shows below.

放大效果的事实是，许多大型Memecoin交易应用程序相互依赖于收入。如下所示，单个Memecoin贸易可以为五个不同的应用程序创造收入。

Matthew Nay, a Messari research analyst who collates Solana’s quarterly report, explains that this inter-dependency is because Pump.fun takes the fees initially from a memecoin’s launch, but after a token graduates and launches on Raydium, the automated market maker then gets the fees.

弥赛亚研究分析师马修·奈（Matthew Nay）校道了索拉纳（Solana）的季度报告，他解释说，这种相互依存的是因为pump.fun最初从成员的发布中获得了费用，但是在代币毕业生并在Raydium上推出了Raydium之后，自动营销商会收取费用。

But as many users prefer trading on Jupiter, that aggregator gets a cut of those fees, as does Raydium. Telegram bot BonkBot, meanwhile, takes its own trading fees while also providing fees for Jupiter and Raydium downstream, and the Photon

但是，由于许多用户更喜欢在木星上进行交易，汇总者和Raydium一样都会削减这些费用。与此同时，电报机器人Bonkbot缴纳了自己的交易费