隨著關鍵鏈上和衍生指標下降，SOL 攀升至 280 美元以上可能面臨障礙

SOL 可能需要比預期更長的時間才能突破 280 美元，因為一些鏈上和衍生性商品指標已從最近的高峰下降。

Solana's (SOL) native token may take longer to move above the $280 price level due to several key onchain and derivatives metrics declining from their recent peaks.

由於幾個關鍵的鏈上和衍生性商品指標從最近的峰值下降，Solana (SOL) 的原生代幣可能需要更長的時間才能突破 280 美元的價格水平。

Despite this trend, SOL could still attempt to challenge its $295 all-time high, which was reached on Jan. 19. However, the durability of recent inflows into the SOL market appears questionable.

儘管存在這種趨勢，SOL 仍可能嘗試挑戰 1 月 19 日達到的 295 美元的歷史高點。

For instance, Solana network fees dropped by 67% to $11.7 million on Jan. 21, compared to Jan. 19. This decline in fees coincides with reduced trading activity on Raydium, Pump.fun, and Orca, although overall levels remain higher than the previous week. At the same time, network fees on other decentralized applications, such as Jito, Meteora, Photon and Moonshot.money, remained unchanged.

例如，與1 月19 日相比，Solana 網路費用在1 月21 日下降了67%，至1,170 萬美元。高於前一周。同時，其他去中心化應用程式（例如 Jito、Meteora、Photon 和 Moonshot.money）的網路費用保持不變。

Investors should note that memecoins are not the only use case for Solana, yet the recent demand driving network activity appears unsustainable.

投資人應注意，memecoin 並不是 Solana 的唯一用例，但近期驅動網路活動的需求似乎無法持續。

Solana network daily active addresses peaked at 16.5 million on Jan. 20 before slipping to 13 million, according to Glassnode data.

根據 Glassnode 的數據，Solana 網路日活躍位址在 1 月 20 日達到高峰 1,650 萬，隨後下滑至 1,300 萬。

Still, it would be naive to evaluate Solana's network activity without comparing data from competitors.

儘管如此，在不比較競爭對手的數據的情況下評估 Solana 的網路活動是天真的。

Traders may have shifted their focus to the stock market amid optimism over lower corporate taxes, import tariffs, and a more business-friendly environment following Donald Trump's recent election victory.

在唐納德·川普(Donald Trump)最近贏得大選後，由於對企業稅、進口關稅降低以及商業環境更加友好的樂觀情緒，交易員可能已將注意力轉向股市。

The S&P 500 index advanced by 0.8% to an intraday record of 6,100 on Jan. 22, which was partly driven by Netflix. The streaming service jumped by 11% after revealing that it had crossed the 300 million mark in paid subscriptions.

1 月 22 日，標普 500 指數上漲 0.8%，創下 6,100 點的盤中紀錄，部分原因是 Netflix 的推動。該串流媒體服務的付費訂閱量突破 3 億大關後，股價上漲了 11%。

Additionally, Oracle shares rose by 7%, while Nvidia climbed by 4% on news of a joint venture with OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank, which will involve at least $500 billion in planned investments. According to Truist’s co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner, who spoke with CNBC about the matter:

此外，由於與 OpenAI、甲骨文和軟銀成立合資企業的消息傳出，甲骨文股價上漲 7%，英偉達股價上漲 4%，該合資企業將涉及至少 5,000 億美元的計畫投資。 Truist 聯合首席投資長 Keith Lerner 在接受 CNBC 採訪時表示：

Despite the overall鈍decline in onchain activity, Solana's market share in decentralized exchanges remained strong, maintaining its top position over the past seven days.

儘管鏈上活動整體急劇下降，但 Solana 在去中心化交易所的市佔率仍然強勁，在過去 7 天裡保持第一的位置。

DEX daily volumes by network. Source: DefiLlamaOn Jan. 21, Solana recorded $11.9 billion in DEX volume, while BNB Chain and Ethereum combined for $7.4 billion. Solana's dominance has remained above 45% since Jan. 16, which is higher than the previous week’s average of 34%. In essence, the slowdown in Solana's onchain activity only reflects traders' shifting focus to the stock market.

按網路劃分的 DEX 每日交易量。來源：DefiLlama 1 月 21 日，Solana 的 DEX 交易量達到 119 億美元，而 BNB Chain 和以太坊合計交易量為 74 億美元。自 1 月 16 日以來，Solana 的統治力一直保持在 45% 以上，高於前一周 34% 的平均值。從本質上講，S​​olana 鏈上活動的放緩僅反映了交易者將注意力轉向股市。

Investors may want to consider examining the leverage demand on SOL futures markets. When bullish sentiment is strong, the perpetual contract (inverse swap) funding rate usually climbs above 1.9% per month, indicating that long (buy) positions are paying for leverage.

投資者可能需要考慮檢查 SOL 期貨市場的槓桿需求。當看漲情緒強烈時，永續合約（反向掉期）資金費率通常每月攀升至 1.9% 以上，表明多頭（買入）頭寸正在為槓桿付出代價。

SOL perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. Source: CoinGlassOver the past two days, the demand for SOL leverage has been balanced between bulls and bears, with the indicator currently at 0.5% per month. Notably, on Jan. 20, traders briefly showed increased demand for short (sell) leverage.

SOL永續期貨8小時資金費率。資料來源：CoinGlass 在過去兩天，SOL 槓桿的需求在多頭和空頭之間保持平衡，目前該指標為每月 0.5%。值得注意的是，1 月 20 日，交易員短暫表現出對空頭（賣出）槓桿的需求增加。

Unless a new catalyst emerges for SOL — such as U.S. approval of a spot Solana exchange-traded fund — the likelihood of revisiting the $295 all-time high soon appears limited.

除非 SOL 出現新的催化劑（例如美國批准現貨 Solana 交易所交易基金），否則很快就重新觸及 295 美元歷史高點的可能性似乎有限。