随着关键链上和衍生品指标下降，SOL 攀升至 280 美元以上可能面临障碍

SOL 可能需要比预期更长的时间才能突破 280 美元，因为一些链上和衍生品指标已从最近的峰值下降。

Solana's (SOL) native token may take longer to move above the $280 price level due to several key onchain and derivatives metrics declining from their recent peaks.

由于几个关键的链上和衍生品指标从最近的峰值下降，Solana (SOL) 的原生代币可能需要更长的时间才能突破 280 美元的价格水平。

Despite this trend, SOL could still attempt to challenge its $295 all-time high, which was reached on Jan. 19. However, the durability of recent inflows into the SOL market appears questionable.

尽管存在这种趋势，SOL 仍可能尝试挑战 1 月 19 日达到的 295 美元的历史高点。然而，近期流入 SOL 市场的资金的持久性似乎值得怀疑。

For instance, Solana network fees dropped by 67% to $11.7 million on Jan. 21, compared to Jan. 19. This decline in fees coincides with reduced trading activity on Raydium, Pump.fun, and Orca, although overall levels remain higher than the previous week. At the same time, network fees on other decentralized applications, such as Jito, Meteora, Photon and Moonshot.money, remained unchanged.

例如，与 1 月 19 日相比，Solana 网络费用在 1 月 21 日下降了 67%，至 1170 万美元。费用的下降与 Raydium、Pump.fun 和 Orca 的交易活动减少同时发生，尽管总体水平仍高于前一周。与此同时，其他去中心化应用程序（例如 Jito、Meteora、Photon 和 Moonshot.money）的网络费用保持不变。

Investors should note that memecoins are not the only use case for Solana, yet the recent demand driving network activity appears unsustainable.

投资者应注意，memecoin 并不是 Solana 的唯一用例，但近期驱动网络活动的需求似乎不可持续。

Solana network daily active addresses peaked at 16.5 million on Jan. 20 before slipping to 13 million, according to Glassnode data.

根据 Glassnode 的数据，Solana 网络日活跃地址在 1 月 20 日达到峰值 1,650 万，随后下滑至 1,300 万。

Still, it would be naive to evaluate Solana's network activity without comparing data from competitors.

尽管如此，在不比较竞争对手的数据的情况下评估 Solana 的网络活动是天真的。

Traders may have shifted their focus to the stock market amid optimism over lower corporate taxes, import tariffs, and a more business-friendly environment following Donald Trump's recent election victory.

唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)最近赢得大选后，由于对企业税、进口关税降低以及商业环境更加友好的乐观情绪，交易员可能已将注意力转向股市。

The S&P 500 index advanced by 0.8% to an intraday record of 6,100 on Jan. 22, which was partly driven by Netflix. The streaming service jumped by 11% after revealing that it had crossed the 300 million mark in paid subscriptions.

1 月 22 日，标准普尔 500 指数上涨 0.8%，创下 6,100 点的盘中纪录，部分原因是 Netflix 的推动。该流媒体服务的付费订阅量突破 3 亿大关后，股价上涨了 11%。

Additionally, Oracle shares rose by 7%, while Nvidia climbed by 4% on news of a joint venture with OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank, which will involve at least $500 billion in planned investments. According to Truist’s co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner, who spoke with CNBC about the matter:

此外，由于与 OpenAI、甲骨文和软银成立合资企业的消息传出，甲骨文股价上涨 7%，英伟达股价上涨 4%，该合资企业将涉及至少 5000 亿美元的计划投资。 Truist 联合首席投资官 Keith Lerner 在接受 CNBC 采访时表示：

Despite the overall鈍decline in onchain activity, Solana's market share in decentralized exchanges remained strong, maintaining its top position over the past seven days.

尽管链上活动整体急剧下降，但 Solana 在去中心化交易所的市场份额仍然强劲，在过去 7 天里保持着第一的位置。

DEX daily volumes by network. Source: DefiLlamaOn Jan. 21, Solana recorded $11.9 billion in DEX volume, while BNB Chain and Ethereum combined for $7.4 billion. Solana's dominance has remained above 45% since Jan. 16, which is higher than the previous week’s average of 34%. In essence, the slowdown in Solana's onchain activity only reflects traders' shifting focus to the stock market.

按网络划分的 DEX 每日交易量。资料来源：DefiLlama 1 月 21 日，Solana 的 DEX 交易量达到 119 亿美元，而 BNB Chain 和以太坊合计交易量为 74 亿美元。自 1 月 16 日以来，Solana 的统治力一直保持在 45% 以上，高于前一周 34% 的平均水平。从本质上讲，Solana 链上活动的放缓仅反映了交易者将注意力转向股市。

Investors may want to consider examining the leverage demand on SOL futures markets. When bullish sentiment is strong, the perpetual contract (inverse swap) funding rate usually climbs above 1.9% per month, indicating that long (buy) positions are paying for leverage.

投资者可能需要考虑检查 SOL 期货市场的杠杆需求。当看涨情绪强烈时，永续合约（反向掉期）资金费率通常每月攀升至 1.9% 以上，表明多头（买入）头寸正在为杠杆付出代价。

SOL perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. Source: CoinGlassOver the past two days, the demand for SOL leverage has been balanced between bulls and bears, with the indicator currently at 0.5% per month. Notably, on Jan. 20, traders briefly showed increased demand for short (sell) leverage.

SOL永续期货8小时资金费率。来源：CoinGlass 过去两天，SOL 杠杆的需求在多头和空头之间保持平衡，目前该指标为每月 0.5%。值得注意的是，1 月 20 日，交易员短暂表现出对空头（卖出）杠杆的需求增加。

Unless a new catalyst emerges for SOL — such as U.S. approval of a spot Solana exchange-traded fund — the likelihood of revisiting the $295 all-time high soon appears limited.

除非 SOL 出现新的催化剂（例如美国批准现货 Solana 交易所交易基金），否则很快重新触及 295 美元历史高点的可能性似乎有限。