比特幣（BTC）的出色價格變動不僅是由炒作或短期投機驅動的。

它們主要是由長期持有人的行動加劇的。

The remarkable price movements of Bitcoin (BTC) are not merely driven by hype or short-term speculation. They are fueled mostly by the actions of long-term holders.

比特幣（BTC）的出色價格變動不僅是由炒作或短期投機驅動的。它們主要是由長期持有人的行動加劇的。

When I say, “long-term holders,” I mean investors who buy Bitcoin at low prices, hold it for extended stretches of time, and think very little about the liquidity of their Bitcoin investments. These investors marry their Bitcoin, and like the loyal spouses and partners that many of us are, they promise to stay with their Bitcoin, in sickness and in health and till death do us part, for the longest and most serious stretch of time.

當我說“長期持有人”時，是指低價購買比特幣的投資者，持續時間延長，並且對其比特幣投資的流動性幾乎沒有考慮。這些投資者嫁給了他們的比特幣，就像我們許多人一樣的忠實配偶和伴侶一樣，他們承諾將與比特幣，疾病和健康狀況保持聯繫，直到死亡，我們將在我們的一段時間內盡力而為。

Bitcoin’s Current Market Dynamics: The Role of Long-Term Holders

比特幣的當前市場動態：長期持有人的作用

One of the primary telltales that disclose the market behavior of long-term Bitcoin investors is the Mean Coin Age (MCA). The MCA measures the average age of all Bitcoin in circulation and indicates how long holders have kept their assets before moving them. When the MCA is high, it’s kind of like saying that a significant portion of the Bitcoin in existence has been held for a long time and not moved, kind of like the way people keep their money in long-term savings accounts. These long-term holders are also less likely to sell and have held onto their Bitcoins since before the last couple of bull runs. So they’re probably in it for the long haul and are not the kind of people who push around the liquidity in the market.

披露長期比特幣投資者市場行為的主要差異之一是平均硬幣年齡（MCA）。 MCA衡量所有比特幣在流通中的平均年齡，並表明持有人在移動資產之前已經保留了多長時間。當MCA較高時，這就像說存在很大一部分的比特幣已經持續了很長時間，而且沒有被感動，就像人們將錢保持在長期儲蓄帳戶中的方式一樣。這些長期持有人也不太可能出售，並且自從最後幾台公牛奔跑之前就一直持有其比特幣。因此，他們可能長期以來就在其中，並且不是那種在市場上流動性的人。

Currently, the price movement of Bitcoin can largely be attributed to the behavior of long-term holders, who are maintaining the upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. In the past several months, the price action indicates continued dominance by these investors, who have been reluctant to sell even when the broader market has been undergoing its own fluctuations. Yet, this may not last much longer. Some recent indicators suggest that the price movement dynamics are shifting.

目前，比特幣的價格變動在很大程度上歸因於長期持有人的行為，他們正在維持比特幣價格的向上壓力。在過去的幾個月中，價格行動表明這些投資者繼續統治，即使更廣泛的市場一直在經歷自己的波動，他們也不願賣出。但是，這可能不會持續更長的時間。最近的一些指標表明，價格移動動態正在發生變化。

Possible Shift in Market Sentiment

市場情緒可能轉變

A possible warning sign that a market is shifting can be seen in the Mean Coin Age (MCA). If the MCA begins to decrease, this could signal that more Bitcoin is changing hands, apparently between wallet addresses. This in turn suggests that Bitcoin holders are becoming either less confident or more nimble (or both) and are either readying to sell or to move their coins in advance of a possible price drop.

在平均硬幣時代（MCA）中可以看到市場正在轉移的可能警告信號。如果MCA開始減少，這可能表明更多的比特幣正在易手，顯然是在錢包地址之間。反過來，這表明比特幣持有人變得越來越自信或更敏捷（或兩者兼而有之），並且準備在可能的價格下跌之前出售或移動硬幣。

A likely outcome of lowering the MCA is that it could increase the supply of Bitcoin in the marketplace. (Recall that the now-in-effect MCA had already decreased the supply, which is presumably one reason for the increase in Bitcoin’s price.) If the same decline in demand accompanied this possible increase in supply, then downward price pressure could very well result. This would definitely not be a desirable outcome for Bitcoin enthusiasts.

降低MCA的可能結果是，它可能會增加市場上比特幣的供應。 （回想一下，現在效應的MCA已經減少了供應，這可能是比特幣價格上漲的原因之一。）如果需求同樣的下降伴隨著可能增加的供應量，那麼下降價格壓力就會很可能導致。對於比特幣愛好者來說，這絕對不是理想的結果。

If the same decline in demand accompanied this possible increase in supply, then downward price pressure could very well result—a scenario that would surely not be favored by Bitcoin bulls.

如果需求的同樣下降伴隨著可能增加的供應增加，那麼下降的價格壓力就很可能會導致 - 這種情況肯定不會受到比特幣公牛的青睞。

Positive Signs: U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Seeing Record Inflows

積極跡象：美國現場比特幣ETF看到記錄流入

Even though a possible market shift is worrisome, there are still some good signs for Bitcoin investors. One of the most encouraging developments is the ongoing growth of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. On March 27, they had a net inflow of $89.06 million. This was the tenth consecutive day of net inflows. So about four and a half months into 2023, it’s increasingly clear that institutional capital is being directed toward Bitcoin-focused ETFs.

即使可能的市場轉變令人擔憂，但比特幣投資者仍然有一些好兆頭。最令人鼓舞的事態發展之一是3月27日在美國，比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的持續增長，他們的淨流入量為8906萬美元。這是淨流入的連續第十天。因此，到2023年大約四個月半，越來越明顯的是，機構資本是針對以比特幣為註重的ETF的。

The consistent influx of assets into Bitcoin ETFs underscores Bitcoin’s emerging legitimacy in conventional finance. Investors are clamoring for more ways to access this digital asset, and the ETF has become the vehicle of choice. Yet, three things stand in the way of that becoming a reality.

將資產湧入比特幣ETF的一致湧入強調了比特幣在常規金融中的新興合法性。投資者正在大聲疾呼獲得該數字資產的更多方法，而ETF已成為首選的工具。然而，三件事阻礙了這種現實。

The ongoing success of Bitcoin ETFs, however, raises an important question: are the inflows into them driven by the institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term price performance, or are they just a result of speculation on its short-term price movements? If the latter, then these vehicles might not aid stabilizing long-term price performance for Bitcoin; and, in fact, they could make things worse.

然而，比特幣ETF的持續成功提出了一個重要的問題：這是由於對比特幣長期價格績效的機構信心所驅動的，還是只是由於對短期價格變動的推測而導致的？如果後者，那麼這些車輛可能無助於穩定比特幣的長期價格性能；而且，實際上，它們可能會使情況變得更糟。

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

比特幣的下一步是什麼？

Although it is impossible to say with certainty what direction Bitcoin will take next, the current market situation is one of delicate balance. The actions of long-term holders have been the main factor influencing the price of the cryptocurrency of late, but the potential for a shift in the market is evident. As the number of BTC available in the market continues to rise and the dynamics of the market shift, it becomes even more important for investors to stay alert and watch for signposts that might indicate the next price move. One way to do this is to look at the diversification of Bitcoin supply across market participants.

儘管不可能肯定地說比特幣接下來要採取什麼方向，但當前的市場狀況是微妙的平衡之一。長期持有人的行動一直是影響最近的加密貨幣價格的主要因素，但市場轉變的可能性很明顯。隨著市場上可用的BTC數量繼續上升和市場變化的動力，對於投資者來說，保持警惕並關注可能表明下一個價格轉移的路標變得更加重要。做到這一點的一種方法是研究比特幣供應在市場參與者之間的多元化。

Regardless of the long-term investment strategy one adheres to, Bitcoin is an asset whose income-bearing qualities one must respect. Some holders of Bitcoin may argue against this and state that they intend

無論您採用長期投資策略，比特幣都是必須尊重收入質量的資產。一些比特幣的持有人可能會反對這一點，並指出他們打算