比特币（BTC）的出色价格变动不仅是由炒作或短期投机驱动的。

它们主要是由长期持有人的行动加剧的。

The remarkable price movements of Bitcoin (BTC) are not merely driven by hype or short-term speculation. They are fueled mostly by the actions of long-term holders.

比特币（BTC）的出色价格变动不仅是由炒作或短期投机驱动的。它们主要是由长期持有人的行动加剧的。

When I say, “long-term holders,” I mean investors who buy Bitcoin at low prices, hold it for extended stretches of time, and think very little about the liquidity of their Bitcoin investments. These investors marry their Bitcoin, and like the loyal spouses and partners that many of us are, they promise to stay with their Bitcoin, in sickness and in health and till death do us part, for the longest and most serious stretch of time.

当我说“长期持有人”时，是指低价购买比特币的投资者，持续时间延长，并且对其比特币投资的流动性几乎没有考虑。这些投资者嫁给了他们的比特币，就像我们许多人一样的忠实配偶和伴侣一样，他们承诺将与比特币，疾病和健康状况保持联系，直到死亡，我们将在我们的一段时间内尽力而为。

Bitcoin’s Current Market Dynamics: The Role of Long-Term Holders

比特币的当前市场动态：长期持有人的作用

One of the primary telltales that disclose the market behavior of long-term Bitcoin investors is the Mean Coin Age (MCA). The MCA measures the average age of all Bitcoin in circulation and indicates how long holders have kept their assets before moving them. When the MCA is high, it’s kind of like saying that a significant portion of the Bitcoin in existence has been held for a long time and not moved, kind of like the way people keep their money in long-term savings accounts. These long-term holders are also less likely to sell and have held onto their Bitcoins since before the last couple of bull runs. So they’re probably in it for the long haul and are not the kind of people who push around the liquidity in the market.

披露长期比特币投资者市场行为的主要差异之一是平均硬币年龄（MCA）。 MCA衡量所有比特币在流通中的平均年龄，并表明持有人在移动资产之前已经保留了多长时间。当MCA较高时，这就像说存在很大一部分的比特币已经持续了很长时间，而且没有被感动，就像人们将钱保持在长期储蓄帐户中的方式一样。这些长期持有人也不太可能出售，并且自从最后几台公牛奔跑之前就一直持有其比特币。因此，他们可能长期以来就在其中，并且不是那种在市场上流动性的人。

Currently, the price movement of Bitcoin can largely be attributed to the behavior of long-term holders, who are maintaining the upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. In the past several months, the price action indicates continued dominance by these investors, who have been reluctant to sell even when the broader market has been undergoing its own fluctuations. Yet, this may not last much longer. Some recent indicators suggest that the price movement dynamics are shifting.

目前，比特币的价格变动在很大程度上归因于长期持有人的行为，他们正在维持比特币价格的向上压力。在过去的几个月中，价格行动表明这些投资者继续统治，即使更广泛的市场一直在经历自己的波动，他们也不愿卖出。但是，这可能不会持续更长的时间。最近的一些指标表明，价格移动动态正在发生变化。

Possible Shift in Market Sentiment

市场情绪可能转变

A possible warning sign that a market is shifting can be seen in the Mean Coin Age (MCA). If the MCA begins to decrease, this could signal that more Bitcoin is changing hands, apparently between wallet addresses. This in turn suggests that Bitcoin holders are becoming either less confident or more nimble (or both) and are either readying to sell or to move their coins in advance of a possible price drop.

在平均硬币时代（MCA）中可以看到市场正在转移的可能警告信号。如果MCA开始减少，这可能表明更多的比特币正在易手，显然是在钱包地址之间。反过来，这表明比特币持有人变得越来越自信或更敏捷（或两者兼而有之），并且准备在可能的价格下跌之前出售或移动硬币。

A likely outcome of lowering the MCA is that it could increase the supply of Bitcoin in the marketplace. (Recall that the now-in-effect MCA had already decreased the supply, which is presumably one reason for the increase in Bitcoin’s price.) If the same decline in demand accompanied this possible increase in supply, then downward price pressure could very well result. This would definitely not be a desirable outcome for Bitcoin enthusiasts.

降低MCA的可能结果是，它可能会增加市场上比特币的供应。 （回想一下，现在效应的MCA已经减少了供应，这可能是比特币价格上涨的原因之一。）如果需求同样的下降伴随着可能增加的供应量，那么下降价格压力就会很可能导致。对于比特币爱好者来说，这绝对不是理想的结果。

If the same decline in demand accompanied this possible increase in supply, then downward price pressure could very well result—a scenario that would surely not be favored by Bitcoin bulls.

如果需求的同样下降伴随着可能增加的供应增加，那么下降的价格压力就很可能会导致 - 这种情况肯定不会受到比特币公牛的青睐。

Positive Signs: U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Seeing Record Inflows

积极迹象：美国现场比特币ETF看到记录流入

Even though a possible market shift is worrisome, there are still some good signs for Bitcoin investors. One of the most encouraging developments is the ongoing growth of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. On March 27, they had a net inflow of $89.06 million. This was the tenth consecutive day of net inflows. So about four and a half months into 2023, it’s increasingly clear that institutional capital is being directed toward Bitcoin-focused ETFs.

即使可能的市场转变令人担忧，但比特币投资者仍然有一些好兆头。最令人鼓舞的事态发展之一是3月27日在美国，比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的持续增长，他们的净流入量为8906万美元。这是净流入的连续第十天。因此，到2023年大约四个月半，越来越明显的是，机构资本是针对以比特币为注重的ETF的。

The consistent influx of assets into Bitcoin ETFs underscores Bitcoin’s emerging legitimacy in conventional finance. Investors are clamoring for more ways to access this digital asset, and the ETF has become the vehicle of choice. Yet, three things stand in the way of that becoming a reality.

将资产涌入比特币ETF的一致涌入强调了比特币在常规金融中的新兴合法性。投资者正在大声疾呼获得该数字资产的更多方法，而ETF已成为首选的工具。然而，三件事阻碍了这种现实。

The ongoing success of Bitcoin ETFs, however, raises an important question: are the inflows into them driven by the institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term price performance, or are they just a result of speculation on its short-term price movements? If the latter, then these vehicles might not aid stabilizing long-term price performance for Bitcoin; and, in fact, they could make things worse.

然而，比特币ETF的持续成功提出了一个重要的问题：这是由于对比特币长期价格绩效的机构信心所驱动的，还是只是由于对短期价格变动的推测而导致的？如果后者，那么这些车辆可能无助于稳定比特币的长期价格性能；而且，实际上，它们可能会使情况变得更糟。

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

比特币的下一步是什么？

Although it is impossible to say with certainty what direction Bitcoin will take next, the current market situation is one of delicate balance. The actions of long-term holders have been the main factor influencing the price of the cryptocurrency of late, but the potential for a shift in the market is evident. As the number of BTC available in the market continues to rise and the dynamics of the market shift, it becomes even more important for investors to stay alert and watch for signposts that might indicate the next price move. One way to do this is to look at the diversification of Bitcoin supply across market participants.

尽管不可能肯定地说比特币接下来要采取什么方向，但当前的市场状况是微妙的平衡之一。长期持有人的行动一直是影响最近的加密货币价格的主要因素，但市场转变的可能性很明显。随着市场上可用的BTC数量继续上升和市场变化的动力，对于投资者来说，保持警惕并关注可能表明下一个价格转移的路标变得更加重要。做到这一点的一种方法是研究比特币供应在市场参与者之间的多元化。

Regardless of the long-term investment strategy one adheres to, Bitcoin is an asset whose income-bearing qualities one must respect. Some holders of Bitcoin may argue against this and state that they intend

无论您采用长期投资策略，比特币都是必须尊重收入质量的资产。一些比特币的持有人可能会反对这一点，并指出他们打算