蟒蛇最終吞掉了山羊：嬰兒潮世代的老化引發了醫療保健危機

多年前，某個特定的世代群體促使人口統計學家創造了「蟒蛇中的山羊」這個短語。造成這種現象的原因其實是相當基本的。

The term "goat in the python" was coined by demographers to describe a particular generational cohort.

「蟒蛇中的山羊」一詞是由人口統計學家創造的，用來描述特定的一代。

The phenomenon is caused by the drastic decline in birth rates during the Great Depression, followed by a baby boom after World War II.

這種現像是由於大蕭條時期出生率急劇下降以及二戰後的嬰兒潮造成的。

This resulted in a large generation of seniors being "swallowed" by a smaller generation of working-age people.

這導致一大批老年人被一小部分勞動年齡人口「吞噬」。

The metaphor is apt because the python's digestion is notoriously slow, and the goat's presence can be felt for a long time.

這個比喻很貼切，因為蟒蛇的消化速度是出了名的慢，而山羊的存在可以在很長一段時間內被感覺到。

In the United States, the baby boomers are now reaching retirement age, and their presence is being felt in several ways.

在美國，嬰兒潮世代現已達到退休年齡，人們可以透過多種方式感受到他們的存在。

The demand for hearing aids and Depends is increasing, but more importantly, the healthcare system is facing a staffing crisis.

對助聽器和視障人士的需求不斷增加，但更重要的是，醫療保健系統正面臨人員配備危機。

Doctors, nurses, pharmacists, and their highly trained assistants are aging and retiring at record rates, while the population they serve continues to grow older.

醫生、護士、藥劑師及其訓練有素的助手正以創紀錄的速度老化和退休，而他們所服務的人口也持續老化。

This is putting a strain on the system, and it is expected to worsen in the coming years.

這給系統帶來了壓力，預計未來幾年情況將進一步惡化。

The actuarial consequences of this demographic shift have been anticipated for decades, but little has been done to mitigate the problem.

幾十年來人們一直在預測這種人口變化的精算後果，但幾乎沒有採取任何措施來緩解這個問題。

Much concern has been focused on the solvency of Social Security, but there are many other pension plans, especially for government workers who are exempted from Social Security.

人們非常關注社會安全的償付能力，但還有許多其他退休金計劃，特別是針對免於社會安全的政府工作人員的退休金計劃。

The Reason Foundation estimates the combined current unfunded liability of these plans to be at $1.59 trillion in its 2024 Pension Solvency and Performance Report.

Reason 基金會在 2024 年退休金償付能力和績效報告中估計，這些計劃目前無資金準備的負債總額為 1.59 兆美元。

In addition to demographics, political correctness has contributed to this problem by forbidding investment in such profitable financial pariahs as Israel and the oil industry.

除了人口統計之外，政治正確性也導致了這個問題，因為它禁止對以色列和石油工業等有利可圖的金融賤民進行投資。

Social Security never invested its "float" of surplus funds back when its income exceeded its outgo — and was therefore denied any of the benefits of capital formation.

當社會安全的收入超過其支出時，它從未將其「浮動」盈餘資金投資回來，因此無法享受資本形成的任何好處。

Now, it's too late. There are so many retirees largely dependent on Social Security that it's earned the title "The Third Rail of Politics"… if you touch it you can die … politically, that is.

現在，已經太晚了。有這麼多的退休人員在很大程度上依賴社會保障，以至於它贏得了「政治第三軌」的稱號……如果你觸及它，你就會死……從政治角度來說，就是這樣。

Forbes recently calculated that, once the expected depletion of the primary Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund occurs in 2033, recipients will still get 76% of their benefit from the money being collected from those still paying in Social Security Isn’t Going Bankrupt—Here’s Why – Forbes Advisor.

《富比士》最近計算出，一旦主要老年和遺屬保險 (OASI) 信託基金在 2033 年出現預期耗盡，受益人仍將從那些仍在繳納社會安全的人那裡獲得 76% 的福利。如下——福布斯顧問。

Then what?

然後呢？

Milton Friedman called Social Security “Robin Hood in reverse” because it takes from the poorest demographic by age — young people just starting out — and it gives to the richest age cohort — people who've had many years to accumulate wealth.

米爾頓·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）將社會安全稱為“反向羅賓漢”，因為它從年齡最貧困的人口（剛起步的年輕人）中獲取資金，並為最富有的年齡段（已經有多年累積財富的人）提供服務。

And, as a lasting aftermath of the boomers being such a unique and specific generation, subsequent generations have also been labeled … but only for the reason that their predecessors were so significantly identified.

而且，作為嬰兒潮一代如此獨特和特定的一代的持久後果，後代也被貼上標籤……但只是因為他們的前輩被如此顯著地識別。

You got your X, Y and Z … so far. Y is also known as “Millennials.”

到目前為止，您已經得到了 X、Y 和 Z。 Y 也被稱為「千禧世代」。

Gee, everybody’s trying to get into the act.

哎呀，每個人都在努力參與其中。