Polymarket 和愛荷華州民調數據顯示川普對哈里斯的領先優勢已經減弱

Polymarket 數據顯示，共和黨總統候選人唐納德·川普相對於民主黨對手、副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯的領先優勢有所減弱，但仍佔據主導地位。

Polymarket data shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s lead over his Democratic opponent has shrunk but remains dominant.

Polymarket 數據顯示，共和黨總統候選人唐納德·川普相對於民主黨對手的領先優勢有所縮小，但仍佔據主導地位。

As per the data, the twice-impeached former president’s odds declined from 66.9% to 54%.

數據顯示，這位兩度彈劾的前總統的勝算從66.9%下降至54%。

Meanwhile, Harris has seen a substantial increase in her chances, rising from 33.5% to 46.1%. This shift reflects changing market sentiment as Election Day, Nov. 5, approaches.

同時，哈里斯的機會大幅增加，從 33.5% 上升到 46.1%。這一轉變反映了隨著 11 月 5 日選舉日臨近，市場情緒不斷變化。

Built on the Ethereum blockchain, Polymarket allows its users to buy and sell shares in different real-world outcomes by betting a stablecoin (USDC), rather than more volatile cryptocurrencies.

Polymarket 基於以太坊區塊鏈構建，讓用戶可以透過押注穩定幣（USDC）而不是波動性更大的加密貨幣來買賣不同現實世界結果的股票。

According to the Wall Street Journal, a Polymarket gambler known as Théo is wagering more than $30 million on a Trump victory.

根據《華爾街日報》報道，Polymarket 賭徒 Théo 為川普獲勝下注超過 3000 萬美元。

The shift in momentum comes as the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll results bode well for Harris.

勢頭髮生轉變之際，最新的得梅因紀事報/競立媒體民調結果對哈里斯來說是個好兆頭。

According to Ann Selzer, a prominent American pollster known for being highly accurate, Harris leads Trump in Iowa by three percentage points.

據以高度準確而聞名的美國著名民調專家安·塞爾澤（Ann Selzer）稱，哈里斯在愛荷華州領先川普三個百分點。

According to the poll, Harris retained 47% support compared to Trump’s 44% among likely voters. This represents a major swing from September’s poll, which showed Trump having a 4-point advantage.

民調顯示，哈里斯在可能選民中的支持率為 47%，而川普的支持率為 44%。這與 9 月的民調相比出現了重大轉變，9 月的民調顯示川普有 4 個百分點的優勢。

Selzer told Newsweek that the same methodology was used this year as in 2016 and 2020 — two years when Trump won Iowa.

塞爾澤告訴《新聞周刊》，今年使用的方法與 2016 年和 2020 年（川普贏得愛荷華州的兩年）相同。

Meanwhile, The Daily Beast recently published recordings from interviews author Michael Wolff conducted in 2017 with convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.

與此同時，《每日野獸報》最近發布了作者邁克爾沃爾夫 (Michael Wolff) 2017 年對被定罪的性販運者傑弗裡愛潑斯坦 (Jeffrey Epstein) 進行的採訪錄音。

Epstein, who spoke at length during the interviews about his decade-long friendship with Trump, died in August 2019 at a New York City prison, where he was awaiting trial.

愛潑斯坦在接受採訪時詳細講述了他與川普長達十年的友誼，他於 2019 年 8 月在紐約市一所監獄去世，當時他正在那裡等待審判。

The candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency regulation have become increasingly relevant to investors. Trump has emerged as a vocal supporter of crypto.

候選人在加密貨幣監管方面的立場與投資者越來越相關。川普已成為加密貨幣的堅定支持者。

He has even made a public commitment to back cryptocurrency during a May event at Mar-a-Lago. Trump’s campaign’s decision to accept crypto donations further strengthens this pro-crypto stance.

他甚至在五月海湖莊園的活動中公開承諾支持加密貨幣。川普競選團隊接受加密貨幣捐贈的決定進一步強化了這種支持加密貨幣的立場。

Harris’s approach to crypto has been more measured. In September, she indicated her administration would support crypto as part of a broader strategy to enhance economic competitiveness.

哈里斯對待加密貨幣的態度更加謹慎。 9 月，她表示她的政府將支持加密貨幣，作為增強經濟競爭力的更廣泛策略的一部分。

While her statements have been less definitive than Trump’s explicit endorsements, Harris received an endorsement from Ripple (XRP) co-founder Chris Larsen, who donated over $11.8 million to her campaign.

雖然她的聲明不如川普的明確支持那麼明確，但哈里斯得到了Ripple (XRP) 聯合創始人克里斯·拉森(Chris Larsen) 的支持，後者為她的競選活動捐贈了超過1180 萬美元。

Larsen told CNBC that he believes the Democratic candidate will take a completely different approach to crypto than President Joe Biden, who has been criticized for picking Gary Gensler to chair the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

拉森告訴 CNBC，他相信民主黨候選人將採取與總統喬·拜登完全不同的加密貨幣方法，後者因選擇加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 擔任美國證券交易委員會主席而受到批評。

As state polls and Polymarket predictions continue to show volatility, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has reflected the uncertain political environment.

隨著各州民調和Polymarket預測繼續顯示出波動性，比特幣（BTC）的價格反映了不確定的政治環境。

This is evident from its recent price drop to $68,000. According to the latest data, the global crypto market cap has plunged by 1.95% to $2.28 trillion.

從最近價格跌至 68,000 美元就可以看出這一點。最新數據顯示，全球加密貨幣市值已暴跌1.95%至2.28兆美元。

Bitcoin went as low as $67,300 but managed to climb above $68,000 at press time. Ethereum (ETH) is no exception, as it fell to the $2,400 level.

比特幣一度跌至 67,300 美元，但截至發稿時已升至 68,000 美元以上。以太幣（ETH）也不例外，跌至 2,400 美元水準。