Polymarket and Iowa Poll Data Show Trump's Lead Over Harris Has Weakened

Polymarket data shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's lead over his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, has weakened but remains dominant.

Polymarket data shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s lead over his Democratic opponent has shrunk but remains dominant.

As per the data, the twice-impeached former president’s odds declined from 66.9% to 54%.

Meanwhile, Harris has seen a substantial increase in her chances, rising from 33.5% to 46.1%. This shift reflects changing market sentiment as Election Day, Nov. 5, approaches.

Built on the Ethereum blockchain, Polymarket allows its users to buy and sell shares in different real-world outcomes by betting a stablecoin (USDC), rather than more volatile cryptocurrencies.

According to the Wall Street Journal, a Polymarket gambler known as Théo is wagering more than $30 million on a Trump victory.

The shift in momentum comes as the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll results bode well for Harris.

According to Ann Selzer, a prominent American pollster known for being highly accurate, Harris leads Trump in Iowa by three percentage points.

According to the poll, Harris retained 47% support compared to Trump’s 44% among likely voters. This represents a major swing from September’s poll, which showed Trump having a 4-point advantage.

Selzer told Newsweek that the same methodology was used this year as in 2016 and 2020 — two years when Trump won Iowa.

Meanwhile, The Daily Beast recently published recordings from interviews author Michael Wolff conducted in 2017 with convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.

Epstein, who spoke at length during the interviews about his decade-long friendship with Trump, died in August 2019 at a New York City prison, where he was awaiting trial.

The candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency regulation have become increasingly relevant to investors. Trump has emerged as a vocal supporter of crypto.

He has even made a public commitment to back cryptocurrency during a May event at Mar-a-Lago. Trump’s campaign’s decision to accept crypto donations further strengthens this pro-crypto stance.

Harris’s approach to crypto has been more measured. In September, she indicated her administration would support crypto as part of a broader strategy to enhance economic competitiveness.

While her statements have been less definitive than Trump’s explicit endorsements, Harris received an endorsement from Ripple (XRP) co-founder Chris Larsen, who donated over $11.8 million to her campaign.

Larsen told CNBC that he believes the Democratic candidate will take a completely different approach to crypto than President Joe Biden, who has been criticized for picking Gary Gensler to chair the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

As state polls and Polymarket predictions continue to show volatility, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has reflected the uncertain political environment.

This is evident from its recent price drop to $68,000. According to the latest data, the global crypto market cap has plunged by 1.95% to $2.28 trillion.

Bitcoin went as low as $67,300 but managed to climb above $68,000 at press time. Ethereum (ETH) is no exception, as it fell to the $2,400 level.