Polymarket 和爱荷华州民意调查数据显示特朗普对哈里斯的领先优势已经减弱

Polymarket 数据显示，共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普相对于民主党对手、副总统卡马拉·哈里斯的领先优势有所减弱，但仍占据主导地位。

Polymarket data shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s lead over his Democratic opponent has shrunk but remains dominant.

Polymarket 数据显示，共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普相对于民主党对手的领先优势有所缩小，但仍占据主导地位。

As per the data, the twice-impeached former president’s odds declined from 66.9% to 54%.

数据显示，这位两度弹劾的前总统的胜算从66.9%下降至54%。

Meanwhile, Harris has seen a substantial increase in her chances, rising from 33.5% to 46.1%. This shift reflects changing market sentiment as Election Day, Nov. 5, approaches.

与此同时，哈里斯的机会大幅增加，从 33.5% 上升到 46.1%。这一转变反映了随着 11 月 5 日选举日临近，市场情绪不断变化。

Built on the Ethereum blockchain, Polymarket allows its users to buy and sell shares in different real-world outcomes by betting a stablecoin (USDC), rather than more volatile cryptocurrencies.

Polymarket 基于以太坊区块链构建，允许用户通过押注稳定币（USDC）而不是波动性更大的加密货币来买卖不同现实世界结果的股票。

According to the Wall Street Journal, a Polymarket gambler known as Théo is wagering more than $30 million on a Trump victory.

据《华尔街日报》报道，Polymarket 赌徒 Théo 为特朗普获胜下注超过 3000 万美元。

The shift in momentum comes as the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll results bode well for Harris.

势头发生转变之际，最新的得梅因纪事报/竞立媒体民意调查结果对哈里斯来说是个好兆头。

According to Ann Selzer, a prominent American pollster known for being highly accurate, Harris leads Trump in Iowa by three percentage points.

据以高度准确而闻名的美国著名民意调查专家安·塞尔泽（Ann Selzer）称，哈里斯在爱荷华州领先特朗普三个百分点。

According to the poll, Harris retained 47% support compared to Trump’s 44% among likely voters. This represents a major swing from September’s poll, which showed Trump having a 4-point advantage.

民意调查显示，哈里斯在可能选民中的支持率为 47%，而特朗普的支持率为 44%。这与 9 月份的民意调查相比出现了重大转变，9 月份的民意调查显示特朗普有 4 个百分点的优势。

Selzer told Newsweek that the same methodology was used this year as in 2016 and 2020 — two years when Trump won Iowa.

塞尔泽告诉《新闻周刊》，今年使用的方法与 2016 年和 2020 年（特朗普赢得爱荷华州的两年）相同。

Meanwhile, The Daily Beast recently published recordings from interviews author Michael Wolff conducted in 2017 with convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.

与此同时，《每日野兽报》最近发布了作者迈克尔·沃尔夫 (Michael Wolff) 2017 年对被定罪的性贩运者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦 (Jeffrey Epstein) 进行的采访录音。

Epstein, who spoke at length during the interviews about his decade-long friendship with Trump, died in August 2019 at a New York City prison, where he was awaiting trial.

爱泼斯坦在接受采访时详细讲述了他与特朗普长达十年的友谊，他于 2019 年 8 月在纽约市一所监狱去世，当时他正在那里等待审判。

The candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency regulation have become increasingly relevant to investors. Trump has emerged as a vocal supporter of crypto.

候选人在加密货币监管方面的立场与投资者越来越相关。特朗普已成为加密货币的坚定支持者。

He has even made a public commitment to back cryptocurrency during a May event at Mar-a-Lago. Trump’s campaign’s decision to accept crypto donations further strengthens this pro-crypto stance.

他甚至在五月份海湖庄园的活动中公开承诺支持加密货币。特朗普竞选团队接受加密货币捐赠的决定进一步强化了这种支持加密货币的立场。

Harris’s approach to crypto has been more measured. In September, she indicated her administration would support crypto as part of a broader strategy to enhance economic competitiveness.

哈里斯对待加密货币的态度更加谨慎。 9 月，她表示她的政府将支持加密货币，作为增强经济竞争力的更广泛战略的一部分。

While her statements have been less definitive than Trump’s explicit endorsements, Harris received an endorsement from Ripple (XRP) co-founder Chris Larsen, who donated over $11.8 million to her campaign.

虽然她的声明不如特朗普的明确支持那么明确，但哈里斯得到了 Ripple (XRP) 联合创始人克里斯·拉森 (Chris Larsen) 的支持，后者为她的竞选活动捐赠了超过 1180 万美元。

Larsen told CNBC that he believes the Democratic candidate will take a completely different approach to crypto than President Joe Biden, who has been criticized for picking Gary Gensler to chair the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

拉森告诉 CNBC，他相信民主党候选人将采取与总统乔·拜登完全不同的加密货币方法，后者因选择加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 担任美国证券交易委员会主席而受到批评。

As state polls and Polymarket predictions continue to show volatility, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has reflected the uncertain political environment.

随着各州民意调查和Polymarket预测继续显示出波动性，比特币（BTC）的价格反映了不确定的政治环境。

This is evident from its recent price drop to $68,000. According to the latest data, the global crypto market cap has plunged by 1.95% to $2.28 trillion.

从最近价格跌至 68,000 美元就可以看出这一点。最新数据显示，全球加密货币市值已暴跌1.95%至2.28万亿美元。

Bitcoin went as low as $67,300 but managed to climb above $68,000 at press time. Ethereum (ETH) is no exception, as it fell to the $2,400 level.

比特币一度跌至 67,300 美元，但截至发稿时已升至 68,000 美元以上。以太坊（ETH）也不例外，跌至 2,400 美元水平。