彼得希夫：這將是一個永恆的牛市

上週，Peter 出現在 Rocks and Stocks News 節目中，這是一個專注於採礦業的 YouTube 節目和子堆疊。主持人艾倫·巴里·拉布坎訪問彼得

Peter Schiff appeared on Rocks and Stocks News, a YouTube show and Substack focusing on the mining sector. Host Allan Barry Laboucan interviewed Schiff on Bitcoin, the national debt problem, and the future for precious metals and the mining sector.

Peter Schiff 出現在 Rocks and Stocks News 上，這是一個 YouTube 節目和 Substack，專注於採礦業。主持人艾倫·巴里·拉布坎 (Allan Barry Laboucan) 就比特幣、國家債務問題以及貴金屬和採礦業的未來採訪了希夫。

Schiff contrasted Bitcoin’s recent performance with gold’s. While Bitcoin is marketed like a precious metal, its price hasn’t tracked with gold and silver recently.

希夫將比特幣最近的表現與黃金進行了對比。雖然比特幣像貴金屬一樣進行行銷，但其價格最近並未追隨黃金和白銀的走勢。

“But there's no underlying demand for the token because there's no real use for it. They're trying to market it as gold. That's why Bitcoin is represented as a coin, even though it's not a coin. They make it the color gold to make it look like a gold coin, but it's really like a counterfeit. It's fool's gold. People have made a lot of money in it, of course, because the greater fools have been willing to pay a higher price. … The price has gone sideways. Bitcoin is no higher today at 63,000 than it was almost three years ago.”

「但是對代幣沒有潛在的需求，因為它沒有真正的用途。他們試圖將其作為黃金推銷。這就是為什麼比特幣被表示為硬幣，儘管它不是硬幣。他們把它做成金色，讓它看起來像金幣，但實際上就像是假幣。這是愚人金。當然，人們在其中賺了很多錢，因為更大的傻瓜願意付出更高的代價。 ……價格橫盤整理。如今，比特幣價格為 63,000，並不比三年前更高。

In contrast, gold benefits from an inflationary environment, as people flock to gold to avoid inflation taxes.

相較之下，黃金受益於通貨膨脹環境，因為人們紛紛湧入黃金以避免通貨膨脹稅。

“Look, you know, when you have this much debt, there's two options: default or inflate. And either one is good for gold. Inflation is even better. But if there's a risk that the US Treasury is going to default, then you don't want to own treasuries. If there's a risk that the US government is going to inflate, then you don't want to own treasuries. … Gold is the only safe haven from fiat currencies.”

「看，你知道，當你有這麼多債務時，有兩種選擇：違約或膨脹。任何一種都對黃金有利。通貨膨脹甚至更好。但如果美國財政部有違約風險，那你就不想擁有美國國債。如果有美國政府通膨的風險，那麼您就不想擁有國債。 ……黃金是法定貨幣的唯一避風港。

Schiff and Laboucan discussed the national debt, forecasting up to a four trillion dollar annual deficit in the near future. Interest maintenance and entitlements are the main problems here.

希夫和拉布坎討論了國家債務問題，預測在不久的將來年度赤字將高達 4 兆美元。利息維持和權利是這裡的主要問題。

“The debt problem is exploding. Interest on the national debt in the U.S. is over a trillion a year. That's more than we spend on defense. Within a couple of years, we'll be spending more on interest than we do on Social Security or Medicare. And those programs are growing in price. The national debt is growing by three to four trillion a year right now.”

「債務問題正在爆炸。美國國債的利息每年超過一兆美元。這比我們在國防上的支出還要多。幾年之內，我們在利息上的支出將超過在社會安全或醫療保險上的支出。而且這些項目的價格正在上漲。目前國家債務每年增加三到四兆。

President Biden has nearly outspent Barack Obama’s administration, and neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris seem likely to reverse the nation’s fiscal course.

拜登總統的支出幾乎超過了巴拉克·歐巴馬政府，而唐納德·川普和卡馬拉·哈里斯似乎都不太可能扭轉國家的財政方針。

“Biden may do in four years what it took Obama eight years to accomplish. We'll see. But whoever is president next, whether it's Trump or Harris, is going to break Biden's record. Yes, that's my argument. I think we're going to be looking at three to four trillion. So do the simple math. You don't need a calculator, folks. Thirty-six trillion at three to four, let's say three and a half trillion per year—that gets you to fifty trillion before 2028.”

「拜登可能會在四年內完成歐巴馬花了八年才完成的任務。我們拭目以待。但無論誰成為下一任總統，無論是川普還是哈里斯，都將打破拜登的紀錄。是的，這就是我的論點。我認為我們將專注於三到四萬億美元。所以做一個簡單的數學計算。夥計們，你們不需要計算器。每年三到四萬億美元，即三十六萬億美元，也就是說每年三萬億美元——這將使您在 2028 年之前達到 50 萬億美元。

Schiff thinks that gold’s performance this year and in the future will both make mining stocks highly profitable and induce larger institutions to invest in precious metals and the mining sector.

希夫認為，今年和未來黃金的表現既會讓礦業股獲得高額利潤，也會吸引更大的機構投資貴金屬和礦業領域。

“I own a lot of gold. I own a lot of gold mining stocks. I think that the gold mining stocks are going to be some of the biggest percentage gainers in my portfolio. I think there are stocks that I own that will not just go up 5 and 10x, but maybe 50x or 100x. I think there's going to be a big movement back into gold and mining stocks from institutions, endowments, pension funds, hedge funds.”

“我擁有很多黃金。我擁有很多金礦股票。我認為金礦股將成為我投資組合中漲幅最大的股票之一。我認為我持有的一些股票不僅會上漲 5 倍和 10 倍，而且可能會上漲 50 倍或 100 倍。我認為機構、捐贈基金、退休基金、對沖基金將會大規模回流黃金和礦業股。

While it's hard to be optimistic about the country's political future, Schiff argued that now is the optimal time to get in on gold.

儘管很難對該國的政治未來感到樂觀，但希夫認為，現在是買進黃金的最佳時機。

“This is going to be a bull market for the ages. I mean, you know, even if you go back to the 1970s, I mean, this could even be bigger than that. And that's when gold went from $35 an ounce to $850. So do the math on that. But I think we're staring at something much bigger.”

「這將是一個持續多年的牛市。我的意思是，你知道，即使你回到 20 世紀 70 年代，我的意思是，這甚至可能比那更大。就在那時，金價從每盎司 35 美元漲至 850 美元。因此，對此進行數學計算。但我認為我們正在著眼於更大的事情。