彼得希夫：这将是一个永恒的牛市

上周，Peter 出现在 Rocks and Stocks News 节目中，这是一个专注于采矿业的 YouTube 节目和子堆栈。主持人艾伦·巴里·拉布坎采访彼得

Peter Schiff appeared on Rocks and Stocks News, a YouTube show and Substack focusing on the mining sector. Host Allan Barry Laboucan interviewed Schiff on Bitcoin, the national debt problem, and the future for precious metals and the mining sector.

Peter Schiff 出现在 Rocks and Stocks News 上，这是一个 YouTube 节目和 Substack，专注于采矿业。主持人艾伦·巴里·拉布坎 (Allan Barry Laboucan) 就比特币、国家债务问题以及贵金属和采矿业的未来采访了希夫。

Schiff contrasted Bitcoin’s recent performance with gold’s. While Bitcoin is marketed like a precious metal, its price hasn’t tracked with gold and silver recently.

希夫将比特币最近的表现与黄金进行了对比。虽然比特币像贵金属一样进行营销，但其价格最近并未追随黄金和白银的走势。

“But there's no underlying demand for the token because there's no real use for it. They're trying to market it as gold. That's why Bitcoin is represented as a coin, even though it's not a coin. They make it the color gold to make it look like a gold coin, but it's really like a counterfeit. It's fool's gold. People have made a lot of money in it, of course, because the greater fools have been willing to pay a higher price. … The price has gone sideways. Bitcoin is no higher today at 63,000 than it was almost three years ago.”

“但是对代币没有潜在的需求，因为它没有真正的用途。他们试图将其作为黄金推销。这就是为什么比特币被表示为硬币，尽管它不是硬币。他们把它做成金色，让它看起来像金币，但实际上就像是假币。这是愚人金。当然，人们在其中赚了很多钱，因为更大的傻瓜愿意付出更高的代价。 ……价格横盘整理。如今，比特币价格为 63,000，并不比三年前更高。”

In contrast, gold benefits from an inflationary environment, as people flock to gold to avoid inflation taxes.

相比之下，黄金受益于通货膨胀环境，因为人们纷纷涌入黄金以避免通货膨胀税。

“Look, you know, when you have this much debt, there's two options: default or inflate. And either one is good for gold. Inflation is even better. But if there's a risk that the US Treasury is going to default, then you don't want to own treasuries. If there's a risk that the US government is going to inflate, then you don't want to own treasuries. … Gold is the only safe haven from fiat currencies.”

“看，你知道，当你有这么多债务时，有两种选择：违约或膨胀。任何一种都对黄金有利。通货膨胀甚至更好。但如果美国财政部存在违约风险，那么你就不想拥有美国国债。如果存在美国政府通货膨胀的风险，那么您就不想拥有国债。 ......黄金是法定货币的唯一避风港。”

Schiff and Laboucan discussed the national debt, forecasting up to a four trillion dollar annual deficit in the near future. Interest maintenance and entitlements are the main problems here.

希夫和拉布坎讨论了国家债务问题，预测在不久的将来年度赤字将高达 4 万亿美元。利息维持和权利是这里的主要问题。

“The debt problem is exploding. Interest on the national debt in the U.S. is over a trillion a year. That's more than we spend on defense. Within a couple of years, we'll be spending more on interest than we do on Social Security or Medicare. And those programs are growing in price. The national debt is growing by three to four trillion a year right now.”

“债务问题正在爆炸。美国国债的利息每年超过一万亿美元。这比我们在国防上的支出还要多。几年之内，我们在利息上的支出将超过在社会保障或医疗保险上的支出。而且这些项目的价格正在上涨。目前国家债务每年增长三到四万亿。”

President Biden has nearly outspent Barack Obama’s administration, and neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris seem likely to reverse the nation’s fiscal course.

拜登总统的支出几乎超过了巴拉克·奥巴马政府，而唐纳德·特朗普和卡马拉·哈里斯似乎都不太可能扭转国家的财政方针。

“Biden may do in four years what it took Obama eight years to accomplish. We'll see. But whoever is president next, whether it's Trump or Harris, is going to break Biden's record. Yes, that's my argument. I think we're going to be looking at three to four trillion. So do the simple math. You don't need a calculator, folks. Thirty-six trillion at three to four, let's say three and a half trillion per year—that gets you to fifty trillion before 2028.”

“拜登可能会在四年内完成奥巴马花了八年才完成的任务。我们拭目以待。但无论谁成为下一任总统，无论是特朗普还是哈里斯，都将打破拜登的纪录。是的，这就是我的论点。我认为我们将关注三到四万亿美元。所以做一个简单的数学计算。伙计们，你不需要计算器。每年三到四万亿美元，即三十六万亿美元，也就是说每年三万亿美元——这将使您在 2028 年之前达到 50 万亿美元。”

Schiff thinks that gold’s performance this year and in the future will both make mining stocks highly profitable and induce larger institutions to invest in precious metals and the mining sector.

希夫认为，今年和未来黄金的表现既会让矿业股获得高额利润，也会吸引更大的机构投资贵金属和矿业领域。

“I own a lot of gold. I own a lot of gold mining stocks. I think that the gold mining stocks are going to be some of the biggest percentage gainers in my portfolio. I think there are stocks that I own that will not just go up 5 and 10x, but maybe 50x or 100x. I think there's going to be a big movement back into gold and mining stocks from institutions, endowments, pension funds, hedge funds.”

“我拥有很多黄金。我拥有很多金矿股票。我认为金矿股将成为我投资组合中涨幅最大的股票之一。我认为我持有的一些股票不仅会上涨 5 倍和 10 倍，而且可能会上涨 50 倍或 100 倍。我认为机构、捐赠基金、养老基金、对冲基金将会大规模回流黄金和矿业股。”

While it's hard to be optimistic about the country's political future, Schiff argued that now is the optimal time to get in on gold.

尽管很难对该国的政治未来感到乐观，但希夫认为，现在是买入黄金的最佳时机。

“This is going to be a bull market for the ages. I mean, you know, even if you go back to the 1970s, I mean, this could even be bigger than that. And that's when gold went from $35 an ounce to $850. So do the math on that. But I think we're staring at something much bigger.”

“这将是一个持续多年的牛市。我的意思是，你知道，即使你回到 20 世纪 70 年代，我的意思是，这甚至可能比那更大。就在那时，金价从每盎司 35 美元涨至 850 美元。因此，对此进行数学计算。但我认为我们正在着眼于更大的事情。”