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比特幣區塊獎勵礦工繼續難以獲利,但人工智慧對核電的新興趣可能會為礦工永不滿足的電力需求提供解決方案。
Bitcoin (BTC) mining revenue and profits took a hit in September from the previous month, with revenue experiencing its worst month so far this year, according to Jefferies Group analysts.
傑富瑞集團 (Jefferies Group) 分析師表示,9 月比特幣 (BTC) 挖礦收入和利潤較上月受到打擊,收入經歷了今年迄今為止最糟糕的一個月。
To make matters worse, and as highlighted by Jefferies, this trend is likely to continue into October with mining difficulty showing little sign of easing.
更糟的是,正如傑富瑞所強調的那樣,這種趨勢可能會持續到 10 月份,而採礦難度幾乎沒有緩解的跡象。
Currently, the average price to mine a single BTC token is over $80,000, while BTC’s fiat price is around $67,000.
目前,開採單一 BTC 代幣的平均價格超過 80,000 美元,而 BTC 的法幣價格約為 67,000 美元。
Over October, BTC’s fiat price enjoyed a healthy gain, but the network’s difficulty is rising at twice that rate. It’s no wonder that miners are continuing to ‘pivot’ to more profitable activities, including serving as data centers for AI and other high-performance computing (HPC) tasks.
10 月份,BTC 的法定價格實現了健康上漲,但網路難度卻以兩倍的速度上漲。難怪礦工們繼續「轉向」利潤更高的活動,包括充當人工智慧和其他高效能運算 (HPC) 任務的資料中心。
Others are sidestepping the actual work of competing for block rewards altogether in favor of taking on debt to simply buy BTC. They’re attempting to follow the path laid down by MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), which has enjoyed a stock price surge this year on the back of the roughly 245,000 BTC on its balance sheet.
其他人則完全迴避了爭奪區塊獎勵的實際工作,而轉而舉債簡單地購買比特幣。他們正試圖追隨 MicroStrategy(NASDAQ:MSTR)制定的道路,該公司今年的股價飆升,得益於其資產負債表上約 245,000 BTC 的支持。
This is all fine and well. Right up until the moment it isn’t. Years ago, The Simpsons previewed the likely fate of BTC HODL’ers who refuse to see the potential downsides of investing in utility-free digital Beanie Babies. Remember, kids: you can’t say you weren’t warned.
這一切都很好。直到現在還不是。多年前,《辛普森家庭》預見了比特幣持有者的可能命運,他們拒絕看到投資無實用數字豆豆寶寶的潛在缺點。孩子們,記住:你不能說你沒有被警告過。
Anyway, here’s a glance at how some of the most prominent publicly-traded BTC miners fared in September, in descending order of magnitude:
無論如何,以下是一些最著名的公開交易的 BTC 礦商在 9 月的表現(按降序排列):
While the above companies offer snapshots of the electricity costs of running their thousands of mining rigs across multiple facilities, we generally have to wait for their quarterly earnings reports to see the full cost of production. This includes the requirement to amortize and eventually upgrade their technology to keep abreast of rivals, as Bitfarms’ case above amply demonstrates.
雖然上述公司提供了在多個設施中運行數千台採礦設備的電力成本的快照,但我們通常必須等待他們的季度收益報告才能看到全部生產成本。這包括攤銷並最終升級其技術以跟上競爭對手的要求,正如上面 Bitfarms 的案例充分證明的那樣。
To pivot or not to pivot
旋轉或不旋轉
Between the unforgiving mathematics of BTC mining and fickle investors turning their attention from ‘crypto’ to AI, miners’ press releases are increasingly downplaying mining operations in favor of their AI/HPC opportunities.
在 BTC 挖礦的無情數學和善變的投資者將注意力從「加密貨幣」轉向人工智慧之間,礦工的新聞稿越來越淡化挖礦業務,轉而關注人工智慧/高效能電腦會。
Earlier this month, Riot Platforms CEO Jason Les told Bernstein analysts that his company “would be very interested” in a deal like the multi-billion-dollar pact struck this summer between Core Scientific and ‘AI Hyperscaler’ CoreWeave, the Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)-supported cloud platform.
本月早些時候,Riot Platforms 執行長傑森·萊斯(Jason Les) 告訴Bernstein 分析師,他的公司對Core Scientific 與「AI Hyperscaler」CoreWeave(Nvidia)今年夏天達成的數十億美元協議之類的交易「非常感興趣」。
That deal will see Core Scientific provide CoreWeave with additional computing infrastructure, which, building on an existing deal between the two parties, will generate $6.7 billion in revenue for Core Scientific over a 12-year period. Not bad, considering Core Scientific was still mired in bankruptcy proceedings when this year began.
該交易將使 Core Scientific 為 CoreWeave 提供額外的運算基礎設施,在雙方現有協議的基礎上,該基礎設施將在 12 年內為 Core Scientific 帶來 67 億美元的收入。考慮到今年年初時 Core Scientific 仍深陷破產程序,這還不錯。
Riot’s Les said his company wasn’t about to announce “a pivot [to AI] just for the sake of it,” but Les wanted investors to know that “Riot has valuable assets and we have received inbounds about those.” However, Riot has historically “focused on [BTC] mining,” and the company intends to “remain focused on that strategy.”
Riot 的 Les 表示,他的公司不會只是為了宣布“轉向人工智慧”,但 Les 希望投資者知道“Riot 擁有寶貴的資產,我們已經收到了有關這些資產的投資。”然而,Riot 歷來“專注於 [BTC] 挖礦”,該公司打算“繼續專注於此策略”。
Riot may be content to dance with the one that brought it, but other operators can’t pivot fast enough. Some of these pivots appear to be based on the fact that the stock prices of miners making the most AI/HPC noise are performing better than their BTC-focused rivals.
Riot可能滿足於與帶來它的人共舞,但其他業者的轉變速度不夠快。其中一些關鍵點似乎是基於這樣一個事實:人工智慧/高效能運算噪音最大的礦商的股價表現比專注於比特幣的競爭對手要好。
Regardless of their focus, a rich-get-richer mindset prevails, with every week bringing miner press releases detailing acquisitions of smaller mining operators who can no longer compete with the big boys. Coupled with other miners switching their focus to AI, the ranks of BTC miners will continue to thin, with dangerous implications for the security of BTC’s proof-of-work consensus mechanism.
無論他們的關注點如何,富者愈富的心態盛行,每週都會發布礦業新聞稿,詳細介紹無法再與大公司競爭的小型礦業營運商的收購。再加上其他礦工將注意力轉向人工智慧,比特幣礦工的隊伍將繼續減少,這對比特幣工作量證明共識機制的安全性有危險影響。
Have you got gas?
你有汽油嗎?
Depending on which surveys you read, America currently accounts for between 35-38% of the global BTC hash rate, more than the combined share of the next two—and possibly three—leading countries (Kazakhstan, Russia, and Canada). However, miners’ insatiable appetite for electricity continues to create friction regardless of the jurisdiction in which they operate.
根據您閱讀的調查,美國目前佔全球 BTC 算力的 35-38%,超過了接下來的兩個(可能還有三個)領先國家(哈薩克、俄羅斯和加拿大)的份額總和。然而,無論礦工在哪個司法管轄區運營,他們對電力的永不滿足的胃口都會繼續造成摩擦。
Debates rage over how much of America’s electrical capacity miners are devouring (federal agencies have said it’s as high as 2.3% of the total pie). But even the kindest estimates represent not-insignificant chunks of power that could be devoted to more productive purposes than financial speculation benefiting a handful of BTC whales.
關於礦工吞噬了多少美國電力容量的爭論十分激烈(聯邦機構表示,這一比例高達總電力的 2.3%)。但即使是最善意的估計也代表著相當大的權力,這些權力可以用於比金融投機更有成效的目的,從而使少數比特幣鯨魚受益。
Between growing public antipathy towards miners and cash-rich AI firms willing to outbid miners for grid capacity, miners are getting increasingly creative and/or desperate. MARA recently began using excess natural gas from America’s shale oil producers to power localized miniature versions of its data centers. Effectively, MARA is generating its own power to fuel its mining operations.
大眾對礦工的反感日益強烈,而現金充裕的人工智慧公司願意出價高於礦工以獲得電網容量,礦工們變得越來越有創造力和/或絕望。 MARA 最近開始使用美國頁岩油生產商的過剩天然氣為其資料中心的本地化微型版本提供動力。實際上,MARA 正在自行發電來為其採礦作業提供燃料。
MARA CEO Fred Thiel told Reuters
MARA 執行長 Fred Thiel 告訴路透社
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