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比特币区块奖励矿工继续难以盈利,但人工智能对核电的新兴趣可能会为矿工永不满足的电力需求提供解决方案。
Bitcoin (BTC) mining revenue and profits took a hit in September from the previous month, with revenue experiencing its worst month so far this year, according to Jefferies Group analysts.
杰富瑞集团 (Jefferies Group) 分析师表示,9 月份比特币 (BTC) 挖矿收入和利润较上月受到打击,收入经历了今年迄今为止最糟糕的一个月。
To make matters worse, and as highlighted by Jefferies, this trend is likely to continue into October with mining difficulty showing little sign of easing.
更糟糕的是,正如杰富瑞所强调的那样,这种趋势可能会持续到 10 月份,而采矿难度几乎没有缓解的迹象。
Currently, the average price to mine a single BTC token is over $80,000, while BTC’s fiat price is around $67,000.
目前,开采单个 BTC 代币的平均价格超过 80,000 美元,而 BTC 的法币价格约为 67,000 美元。
Over October, BTC’s fiat price enjoyed a healthy gain, but the network’s difficulty is rising at twice that rate. It’s no wonder that miners are continuing to ‘pivot’ to more profitable activities, including serving as data centers for AI and other high-performance computing (HPC) tasks.
10 月份,BTC 的法定价格实现了健康上涨,但网络难度却以两倍的速度上涨。难怪矿工们继续“转向”利润更高的活动,包括充当人工智能和其他高性能计算 (HPC) 任务的数据中心。
Others are sidestepping the actual work of competing for block rewards altogether in favor of taking on debt to simply buy BTC. They’re attempting to follow the path laid down by MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), which has enjoyed a stock price surge this year on the back of the roughly 245,000 BTC on its balance sheet.
其他人则完全回避竞争区块奖励的实际工作,而转而举债简单地购买比特币。他们正试图追随 MicroStrategy(纳斯达克股票代码:MSTR)制定的道路,该公司今年的股价飙升,得益于其资产负债表上约 245,000 BTC 的支持。
This is all fine and well. Right up until the moment it isn’t. Years ago, The Simpsons previewed the likely fate of BTC HODL’ers who refuse to see the potential downsides of investing in utility-free digital Beanie Babies. Remember, kids: you can’t say you weren’t warned.
这一切都很好。直到现在还不是。多年前,《辛普森一家》就预见到了比特币持有者的可能命运,他们拒绝看到投资无实用数字豆豆宝宝的潜在缺点。孩子们,记住:你不能说你没有被警告过。
Anyway, here’s a glance at how some of the most prominent publicly-traded BTC miners fared in September, in descending order of magnitude:
无论如何,以下是一些最著名的公开交易的 BTC 矿商在 9 月份的表现(按降序排列):
While the above companies offer snapshots of the electricity costs of running their thousands of mining rigs across multiple facilities, we generally have to wait for their quarterly earnings reports to see the full cost of production. This includes the requirement to amortize and eventually upgrade their technology to keep abreast of rivals, as Bitfarms’ case above amply demonstrates.
虽然上述公司提供了在多个设施中运行数千台采矿设备的电力成本的快照,但我们通常必须等待他们的季度收益报告才能看到全部生产成本。这包括摊销并最终升级其技术以跟上竞争对手的要求,正如上面 Bitfarms 的案例充分证明的那样。
To pivot or not to pivot
旋转或不旋转
Between the unforgiving mathematics of BTC mining and fickle investors turning their attention from ‘crypto’ to AI, miners’ press releases are increasingly downplaying mining operations in favor of their AI/HPC opportunities.
在 BTC 挖矿的无情数学和善变的投资者将注意力从“加密货币”转向人工智能之间,矿工的新闻稿越来越淡化挖矿业务,转而关注人工智能/高性能计算机会。
Earlier this month, Riot Platforms CEO Jason Les told Bernstein analysts that his company “would be very interested” in a deal like the multi-billion-dollar pact struck this summer between Core Scientific and ‘AI Hyperscaler’ CoreWeave, the Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)-supported cloud platform.
本月早些时候,Riot Platforms 首席执行官贾森·莱斯 (Jason Les) 告诉 Bernstein 分析师,他的公司对 Core Scientific 与“AI Hyperscaler”CoreWeave(Nvidia)今年夏天达成的数十亿美元协议之类的交易“非常感兴趣”。 NVDA)支持的云平台。
That deal will see Core Scientific provide CoreWeave with additional computing infrastructure, which, building on an existing deal between the two parties, will generate $6.7 billion in revenue for Core Scientific over a 12-year period. Not bad, considering Core Scientific was still mired in bankruptcy proceedings when this year began.
该交易将使 Core Scientific 为 CoreWeave 提供额外的计算基础设施,在双方现有协议的基础上,该基础设施将在 12 年内为 Core Scientific 带来 67 亿美元的收入。考虑到今年年初时 Core Scientific 仍深陷破产程序,这还不错。
Riot’s Les said his company wasn’t about to announce “a pivot [to AI] just for the sake of it,” but Les wanted investors to know that “Riot has valuable assets and we have received inbounds about those.” However, Riot has historically “focused on [BTC] mining,” and the company intends to “remain focused on that strategy.”
Riot 的 Les 表示,他的公司不会只是为了宣布“转向人工智能”,但 Les 希望投资者知道“Riot 拥有宝贵的资产,我们已经收到了有关这些资产的投资。”然而,Riot 历来“专注于 [BTC] 挖矿”,并且该公司打算“继续专注于这一战略”。
Riot may be content to dance with the one that brought it, but other operators can’t pivot fast enough. Some of these pivots appear to be based on the fact that the stock prices of miners making the most AI/HPC noise are performing better than their BTC-focused rivals.
Riot可能满足于与带来它的人共舞,但其他运营商的转变速度不够快。其中一些关键点似乎是基于这样一个事实:人工智能/高性能计算噪音最大的矿商的股价表现比专注于比特币的竞争对手要好。
Regardless of their focus, a rich-get-richer mindset prevails, with every week bringing miner press releases detailing acquisitions of smaller mining operators who can no longer compete with the big boys. Coupled with other miners switching their focus to AI, the ranks of BTC miners will continue to thin, with dangerous implications for the security of BTC’s proof-of-work consensus mechanism.
无论他们的关注点如何,富者愈富的心态盛行,每周都会发布矿业新闻稿,详细介绍无法再与大公司竞争的小型矿业运营商的收购。再加上其他矿工将注意力转向人工智能,比特币矿工的队伍将继续减少,这对比特币工作量证明共识机制的安全产生危险影响。
Have you got gas?
你有汽油吗?
Depending on which surveys you read, America currently accounts for between 35-38% of the global BTC hash rate, more than the combined share of the next two—and possibly three—leading countries (Kazakhstan, Russia, and Canada). However, miners’ insatiable appetite for electricity continues to create friction regardless of the jurisdiction in which they operate.
根据您阅读的调查,美国目前占全球 BTC 算力的 35-38%,超过了接下来的两个(可能还有三个)领先国家(哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯和加拿大)的份额总和。然而,无论矿工在哪个司法管辖区运营,他们对电力的永不满足的胃口都会继续造成摩擦。
Debates rage over how much of America’s electrical capacity miners are devouring (federal agencies have said it’s as high as 2.3% of the total pie). But even the kindest estimates represent not-insignificant chunks of power that could be devoted to more productive purposes than financial speculation benefiting a handful of BTC whales.
关于矿工吞噬了多少美国电力容量的争论十分激烈(联邦机构表示,这一比例高达总电力的 2.3%)。但即使是最善意的估计也代表着相当大的权力,这些权力可以用于比金融投机更有成效的目的,从而使少数比特币鲸鱼受益。
Between growing public antipathy towards miners and cash-rich AI firms willing to outbid miners for grid capacity, miners are getting increasingly creative and/or desperate. MARA recently began using excess natural gas from America’s shale oil producers to power localized miniature versions of its data centers. Effectively, MARA is generating its own power to fuel its mining operations.
公众对矿工的反感日益强烈,而现金充裕的人工智能公司愿意出价高于矿工以获得电网容量,矿工们变得越来越有创造力和/或绝望。 MARA 最近开始使用美国页岩油生产商的过剩天然气为其数据中心的本地化微型版本提供动力。实际上,MARA 正在自己发电来为其采矿作业提供燃料。
MARA CEO Fred Thiel told Reuters
MARA 首席执行官 Fred Thiel 告诉路透社
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