MicroStrategy 的比特幣策略：一場高風險的賭博

MicroStrategy（納斯達克股票代碼：MSTR）是一家成立於 1985 年的商業智慧公司，於 2020 年 8 月採取大膽舉措，採用比特幣作為其主要資金來源

As the dust settles on a remarkable 2023, the markets are bracing for a new year filled with both opportunities and challenges. One company that has grabbed attention with its unconventional strategy is MicroStrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR). The business intelligence firm made headlines in August 2020 with its decision to adopt Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. This bold move essentially transformed MicroStrategy into a quasi-Bitcoin investment vehicle. But the question remains: can this Bitcoin-centric strategy be sustained indefinitely, or is it a high-risk gamble?

隨著非凡的2023年塵埃落定，市場正準備迎接充滿機會與挑戰的新一年。 MicroStrategy（納斯達克股票代碼：MSTR）是一家因其非傳統策略而引起關注的公司。這家商業情報公司於 2020 年 8 月因決定採用比特幣作為其主要國庫儲備資產而成為頭條新聞。這一大膽舉措實質上將 MicroStrategy 轉變為準比特幣投資工具。但問題仍然存在：這種以比特幣為中心的策略能否無限期地持續下去，還是一場高風險的賭博？

Delving into MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Playbook: Accumulate, Rinse, Repeat

深入研究 MicroStrategy 的比特幣策略：累積、沖洗、重複

Kicking off its Bitcoin strategy with an initial investment of $250 million, MicroStrategy has remained faithful to a strategy of accumulating more Bitcoin at every turn. This isn't a passive holding strategy; it's an active pursuit fueled by two primary methods of raising capital:

MicroStrategy 以 2.5 億美元的初始投資啟動了比特幣策略，並始終堅持每次都累積更多比特幣的策略。這不是一種被動持有策略；而是一種被動持有策略。這是一種由兩種主要籌集資金方法推動的積極追求：

1. At-the-Market (ATM) Offerings: This strategy allows MicroStrategy to sell shares of its common stock directly into the market at prevailing prices through brokers. These offerings provide the company with a flexible and efficient way to raise capital quickly.

1. 市場 (ATM) 發行：此策略允許 MicroStrategy 透過經紀人以現行價格直接向市場出售其普通股。這些產品為公司提供了靈活有效的快速籌集資金的方式。

2. Convertible Notes: MicroStrategy has also tapped into the debt markets, issuing convertible notes that carry lower interest rates than traditional debt instruments. These notes can be converted into shares of MSTR stock at a predetermined price, offering investors a potential upside if the stock performs well.

2. 可轉換票據：MicroStrategy 也進軍債務市場，發行可轉換票據，利率低於傳統債務工具。這些票據可以按預定價格轉換為 MSTR 股票，如果股票表現良好，將為投資者提供潛在的上漲空間。

This strategy creates a positive feedback loop: as the price of Bitcoin rises, MicroStrategy's stock price tends to follow, often with amplified gains. This increased stock price makes it easier for the company to raise more capital through ATM offerings and convertible notes, which is then used to purchase even more Bitcoin, further driving up the price. Think of it as a perpetual machine where Bitcoin purchases fuel stock appreciation, which in turn facilitates more Bitcoin purchases.

這種策略創造了一個正向回饋循環：隨著比特幣價格上漲，MicroStrategy 的股價往往會隨之上漲，而且漲幅往往會放大。股價上漲使該公司更容易透過 ATM 發行和可轉換票據籌集更多資金，然後用這些資金購買更多比特幣，進一步推高價格。將其視為永動機，購買比特幣會促進股票升值，從而促進更多的比特幣購買。

Adding fuel to this dynamic is MicroStrategy's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index, effective December 23, 2024. This prestigious index tracks the performance of the top 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The addition of MSTR stock to the index is bound to increase its visibility and liquidity among institutional investors, potentially making it even easier for the company to raise capital for future Bitcoin acquisitions.

MicroStrategy 被納入納斯達克100 指數（自2024 年12 月23 日起生效）為這一動態增添了動力。業績。 MSTR 股票加入該指數勢必會提高其在機構投資者中的知名度和流動性，有可能使該公司更容易為未來的比特幣收購籌集資金。

The Risks and Concerns: Building a House on Bitcoin's Foundation?

風險和擔憂：在比特幣的基礎上建造房屋？

While MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy has been turning heads and boosting its stock price, several risks and concerns loom over this strategy, begging the question: how long can this cycle continue?

儘管 MicroStrategy 的比特幣策略一直備受關注並推高了其股價，但該策略面臨一些風險和擔憂，引發了一個問題：這個週期能持續多久？

1. A Bitcoin Downturn Could Cripple the Strategy: The crux of MicroStrategy's strategy relies heavily on the continued upward trajectory of Bitcoin. However, anything can happen in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, and a sustained downturn in the price of Bitcoin could put a damper on the company's ability to raise capital through ATM offerings and convertible notes. This scenario could also lead to decreased interest from institutional investors, making it harder for MicroStrategy to offload large blocks of MSTR stock.

1. 比特幣低迷可能會削弱該策略：MicroStrategy 策略的關鍵在很大程度上依賴比特幣的持續上漲軌跡。然而，在動盪的加密貨幣世界中，任何事情都可能發生，比特幣價格的持續下跌可能會削弱該公司透過 ATM 發行和可轉換票據籌集資金的能力。這種情況也可能導致機構投資者的興趣下降，使 MicroStrategy 出售大量 MSTR 股票變得更加困難。

2. Constant Dilution Raises Eyebrows: To fund its massive Bitcoin purchases, MicroStrategy has been issuing new shares of MSTR stock at an unprecedented rate. This strategy might be keeping the company afloat for now, but it also dilutes the value of existing shares. Over the past three years, the company's outstanding shares have more than doubled, which could be a point of contention for some investors.

2. 不斷稀釋引起關注：為了為其大規模比特幣購買提供資金，MicroStrategy 一直以前所未有的速度發行 MSTR 股票新股。這項策略可能暫時讓公司維持生計，但它也稀釋了現有股票的價值。過去三年，該公司的流通股增加了一倍多，這可能成為一些投資者爭論的焦點。

3. Increasing Debt Levels Could Be Unsustainable: Another aspect of MicroStrategy's strategy that has raised concerns among analysts is the company's increasing debt levels. To supplement its capital raises, MicroStrategy has been taking on debt at a rapid pace, which could become unsustainable if interest rates continue to rise or the company's cash flow is impacted by a downturn in the Bitcoin market. As of December 2023, MicroStrategy's total debt stood at $2.4 billion, a significant increase from the $386 million in debt reported at the end of 2鳯.

3. 不斷增加的債務水準可能是不可持續的：MicroStrategy 策略的另一個引起分析師擔憂的方面是該公司不斷增加的債務水準。為了補充融資，MicroStrategy 一直在快速舉債，如果利率繼續上升或公司的現金流受到比特幣市場低迷的影響，這種舉債可能會變得不可持續。截至 2023 年 12 月，MicroStrategy 的債務總額為 24 億美元，較 2 月底報告的 3.86 億美元債務大幅增加。

4. Competition from Other Companies: As MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy continues to generate buzz on Wall Street, it's natural to wonder if other companies will follow suit. While theoretically possible, replicating MicroStrategy's approach on a smaller scale might not yield the same outsized results. However, other companies could try to replicate this strategy, especially if it continues to be successful for MicroStrategy.

4. 其他公司的競爭：隨著 MicroStrategy 的比特幣策略繼續在華爾街引起熱議，人們自然想知道其他公司是否會效仿。雖然理論上可行，但在較小規模上複製 MicroStrategy 的方法可能不會產生相同的超大結果。然而，其他公司可以嘗試複製這項策略，特別是如果 MicroStrategy 繼續取得成功的話。

5. Why Not Buy Bitcoin Directly? The Institutional Argument

5. 為什麼不直接購買比特幣？制度論

One common question that arises is why investors would choose to buy MSTR stock instead of simply purchasing Bitcoin directly. After all, cutting out the middleman would seem to be the more efficient approach. Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, argues that this strategy caters to specific investor segments:

出現的一個常見問題是，為什麼投資者會選擇購買 MSTR 股票，而不是直接購買比特幣。畢竟，去掉中間商似乎是更有效的方法。 MicroStrategy 執行長 Michael Saylor 認為，這項策略迎合了特定的投資者群體：

"There are different segments of the market that have different preferences. Some investors prefer the liquidity and diversification of an ETF, while others

「市場的不同部分有不同的偏好。一些投資者更喜歡 ETF 的流動性和多元化，而另一些投資者則更喜歡 ETF 的流動性和多元化。