MicroStrategy 的比特币策略：一场高风险的赌博

MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）是一家成立于 1985 年的商业智能公司，于 2020 年 8 月采取大胆举措，采用比特币作为其主要资金来源

As the dust settles on a remarkable 2023, the markets are bracing for a new year filled with both opportunities and challenges. One company that has grabbed attention with its unconventional strategy is MicroStrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR). The business intelligence firm made headlines in August 2020 with its decision to adopt Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. This bold move essentially transformed MicroStrategy into a quasi-Bitcoin investment vehicle. But the question remains: can this Bitcoin-centric strategy be sustained indefinitely, or is it a high-risk gamble?

随着非凡的2023年尘埃落定，市场正准备迎接充满机遇和挑战的新一年。 MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）是一家因其非传统战略而引起关注的公司。这家商业情报公司于 2020 年 8 月因决定采用比特币作为其主要国库储备资产而成为头条新闻。这一大胆举措实质上将 MicroStrategy 转变为一种准比特币投资工具。但问题仍然存在：这种以比特币为中心的策略能否无限期地持续下去，还是一场高风险的赌博？

Delving into MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Playbook: Accumulate, Rinse, Repeat

深入研究 MicroStrategy 的比特币策略：积累、冲洗、重复

Kicking off its Bitcoin strategy with an initial investment of $250 million, MicroStrategy has remained faithful to a strategy of accumulating more Bitcoin at every turn. This isn't a passive holding strategy; it's an active pursuit fueled by two primary methods of raising capital:

MicroStrategy 以 2.5 亿美元的初始投资启动了比特币战略，并始终坚持每次都积累更多比特币的战略。这不是一种被动持有策略；而是一种被动持有策略。这是一种由两种主要筹集资金方法推动的积极追求：

1. At-the-Market (ATM) Offerings: This strategy allows MicroStrategy to sell shares of its common stock directly into the market at prevailing prices through brokers. These offerings provide the company with a flexible and efficient way to raise capital quickly.

1. 市场 (ATM) 发行：该策略允许 MicroStrategy 通过经纪人以现行价格直接向市场出售其普通股。这些产品为公司提供了灵活有效的快速筹集资金的方式。

2. Convertible Notes: MicroStrategy has also tapped into the debt markets, issuing convertible notes that carry lower interest rates than traditional debt instruments. These notes can be converted into shares of MSTR stock at a predetermined price, offering investors a potential upside if the stock performs well.

2. 可转换票据：MicroStrategy 还进军债务市场，发行可转换票据，其利率低于传统债务工具。这些票据可以按预定价格转换为 MSTR 股票，如果股票表现良好，将为投资者提供潜在的上涨空间。

This strategy creates a positive feedback loop: as the price of Bitcoin rises, MicroStrategy's stock price tends to follow, often with amplified gains. This increased stock price makes it easier for the company to raise more capital through ATM offerings and convertible notes, which is then used to purchase even more Bitcoin, further driving up the price. Think of it as a perpetual machine where Bitcoin purchases fuel stock appreciation, which in turn facilitates more Bitcoin purchases.

这种策略创建了一个正反馈循环：随着比特币价格上涨，MicroStrategy 的股价往往会随之上涨，而且涨幅往往会放大。股价上涨使该公司更容易通过 ATM 发行和可转换票据筹集更多资金，然后用这些资金购买更多比特币，进一步推高价格。将其视为一台永动机，购买比特币会促进股票升值，从而促进更多的比特币购买。

Adding fuel to this dynamic is MicroStrategy's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index, effective December 23, 2024. This prestigious index tracks the performance of the top 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The addition of MSTR stock to the index is bound to increase its visibility and liquidity among institutional investors, potentially making it even easier for the company to raise capital for future Bitcoin acquisitions.

MicroStrategy 被纳入纳斯达克 100 指数（自 2024 年 12 月 23 日起生效）为这一动态增添了动力。这一享有盛誉的指数追踪纳斯达克股票市场上市的前 100 家非金融公司的业绩。 MSTR 股票加入该指数势必会提高其在机构投资者中的知名度和流动性，有可能使该公司更容易为未来的比特币收购筹集资金。

The Risks and Concerns: Building a House on Bitcoin's Foundation?

风险和担忧：在比特币的基础上建房子？

While MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy has been turning heads and boosting its stock price, several risks and concerns loom over this strategy, begging the question: how long can this cycle continue?

尽管 MicroStrategy 的比特币策略一直备受关注并推高了其股价，但该策略面临着一些风险和担忧，引发了一个问题：这个周期能持续多久？

1. A Bitcoin Downturn Could Cripple the Strategy: The crux of MicroStrategy's strategy relies heavily on the continued upward trajectory of Bitcoin. However, anything can happen in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies, and a sustained downturn in the price of Bitcoin could put a damper on the company's ability to raise capital through ATM offerings and convertible notes. This scenario could also lead to decreased interest from institutional investors, making it harder for MicroStrategy to offload large blocks of MSTR stock.

1. 比特币低迷可能会削弱该策略：MicroStrategy 策略的关键在很大程度上依赖于比特币的持续上涨轨迹。然而，在动荡的加密货币世界中，任何事情都可能发生，比特币价格的持续下跌可能会削弱该公司通过 ATM 发行和可转换票据筹集资金的能力。这种情况还可能导致机构投资者的兴趣下降，从而使 MicroStrategy 出售大量 MSTR 股票变得更加困难。

2. Constant Dilution Raises Eyebrows: To fund its massive Bitcoin purchases, MicroStrategy has been issuing new shares of MSTR stock at an unprecedented rate. This strategy might be keeping the company afloat for now, but it also dilutes the value of existing shares. Over the past three years, the company's outstanding shares have more than doubled, which could be a point of contention for some investors.

2. 不断稀释引起关注：为了为其大规模比特币购买提供资金，MicroStrategy 一直在以前所未有的速度发行 MSTR 股票新股。这一策略可能暂时让公司维持下去，但它也稀释了现有股票的价值。过去三年，该公司的流通股增加了一倍多，这可能成为一些投资者争论的焦点。

3. Increasing Debt Levels Could Be Unsustainable: Another aspect of MicroStrategy's strategy that has raised concerns among analysts is the company's increasing debt levels. To supplement its capital raises, MicroStrategy has been taking on debt at a rapid pace, which could become unsustainable if interest rates continue to rise or the company's cash flow is impacted by a downturn in the Bitcoin market. As of December 2023, MicroStrategy's total debt stood at $2.4 billion, a significant increase from the $386 million in debt reported at the end of 2鳯.

3. 不断增加的债务水平可能是不可持续的：MicroStrategy 战略的另一个引起分析师担忧的方面是该公司不断增加的债务水平。为了补充融资，MicroStrategy 一直在快速举债，如果利率继续上升或公司的现金流受到比特币市场低迷的影响，这种举债可能会变得不可持续。截至 2023 年 12 月，MicroStrategy 的总债务为 24 亿美元，较 2 月末报告的 3.86 亿美元债务大幅增加。

4. Competition from Other Companies: As MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy continues to generate buzz on Wall Street, it's natural to wonder if other companies will follow suit. While theoretically possible, replicating MicroStrategy's approach on a smaller scale might not yield the same outsized results. However, other companies could try to replicate this strategy, especially if it continues to be successful for MicroStrategy.

4. 来自其他公司的竞争：随着 MicroStrategy 的比特币战略继续在华尔街引起热议，人们很自然地想知道其他公司是否会效仿。虽然理论上可行，但在较小规模上复制 MicroStrategy 的方法可能不会产生相同的超大结果。然而，其他公司可以尝试复制这一策略，特别是如果 MicroStrategy 继续取得成功的话。

5. Why Not Buy Bitcoin Directly? The Institutional Argument

5. 为什么不直接购买比特币？制度论

One common question that arises is why investors would choose to buy MSTR stock instead of simply purchasing Bitcoin directly. After all, cutting out the middleman would seem to be the more efficient approach. Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, argues that this strategy caters to specific investor segments:

出现的一个常见问题是，为什么投资者会选择购买 MSTR 股票，而不是直接购买比特币。毕竟，去掉中间商似乎是更有效的方法。 MicroStrategy 首席执行官 Michael Saylor 认为，这一策略迎合了特定的投资者群体：

"There are different segments of the market that have different preferences. Some investors prefer the liquidity and diversification of an ETF, while others

“市场的不同部分有不同的偏好。一些投资者更喜欢 ETF 的流动性和多元化，而另一些投资者则更喜欢 ETF 的流动性和多元化。