比特幣（BTC）價格預測：儘管近期出現盤整，但比特幣仍將觸及更高價值

自從比特幣（BTC）價格突破10萬美元大關並創下歷史新高以來，一直有猜測稱該加密貨幣

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) surpassing the $100,000 price point and hitting a new all-time high, several key indicators suggest that the cryptocurrency might still have room to rally. This on-chain analysis explains why BTC price could rally again despite recent consolidation.

儘管比特幣 (BTC) 的價格突破了 10 萬美元並創下歷史新高，但幾個關鍵指標表明該加密貨幣可能仍有上漲空間。這一鏈上分析解釋了為什麼儘管最近出現了盤整，但 BTC 價格仍可能再次上漲。

At press time, BTC trades at $101,449.

截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 101,449 美元。

Bitcoin Price Might Rally Again: Here’s WhySeveral on-chain metrics hint at the possibility of a continued BTC price rally. One crucial metric is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) long/short difference. This metric reveals whether BTC is in a bull phase or has switched to a bear market.

比特幣價格可能會再次上漲：原因如下幾個鏈上指標暗示比特幣價格可能會持續上漲。一項關鍵指標是市場價值與已實現價值 (MVRV) 多/空差。該指標揭示了 BTC 是否處於牛市階段或已轉向熊市。

When the MVRV long/short difference is in positive territory, it indicates that long-term holders have more unrealized profits than short-term holders. Price-wise, this is bullish for Bitcoin. On the other hand, when the metric is negative, it implies that short-term holders have the upper hand, and in most cases, it signifies a bearish phase.

當 MVRV 多空差值為正值時，表示長期持有者比短期持有者擁有更多的未實現利潤。從價格角度來看，這對比特幣有利。另一方面，當指標為負值時，則表示短期持有者佔上風，並且在大多數情況下，這意味著看跌階段。

According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s MVRV long/short difference has risen to 27.25%, indicating that the current cycle is a Bitcoin bull market. However, the reading is far below 42.08, which it reached in March before experiencing months of consolidation and correction. Going by historical data, this current condition suggests that BTC is likely to surpass its all-time high before the top of this cycle.

根據Santiment統計，比特幣的MVRV多空差值已上升至27.25%，顯示目前週期為比特幣牛市。然而，該讀數遠低於 3 月達到的 42.08，之後經歷了數月的盤整和調整。從歷史數據來看，目前的情況表明，比特幣很可能在本週期頂部之前突破歷史新高。

Another key Bitcoin indicator that supports this bias is the Realized HOLD ratio, commonly known as the RHODL ratio. The RHODL ratio is a market indicator that is used to analyze Bitcoin market bottoms and tops.

支持這種偏見的另一個關鍵比特幣指標是已實現持有比率，通常稱為 RHODL 比率。 RHODL比率是一個市場指標，用於分析比特幣市場的底部和頂部。

A high RHODL Ratio suggests the market is overheated with significant short-term activity, often used to signal cycle tops or impending corrections. A low RHODL ratio, on the other hand, indicates strong long-term holding sentiment, implying undervaluation.

高 RHODL 比率表示市場過熱且存在大量短期活動，通常用於發出週期頂部或即將到來的調整的訊號。另一方面，較低的 RHODL 比率表明長期持有情緒強烈，這意味著估值被低估。

Based on Glassnode’s data, the Bitcoin RHODL ratio is above the green zone, indicating that it is no longer at the bottom. At the same time, it is below the red area, signifying that BTC price has not hit the top. If this remains the same, then Bitcoin might rally above its all-time high of $103,900.

根據Glassnode的數據，比特幣RHODL比率位於綠色區域之上，顯示它不再處於底部。同時位於紅色區域下方，顯示BTC價格尚未見頂。如果這種情況保持不變，那麼比特幣可能會升至 103,900 美元的歷史高點之上。

BTC Chart by TradingView A technical analysis of the daily chart shows that Bitcoin has formed a bull flag. A bull flag is a technical pattern that indicates a potential continuation of an uptrend. The pattern shows the flagpole, which represents the initial strong upward price movement.

BTC 圖表來自 TradingView 對日線圖的技術分析顯示，比特幣已經形成了牛市旗形。牛市旗形是一種顯示上升趨勢可能持續的技術形態。此形態顯示旗桿，代表價格最初強勁的上漲走勢。

The uptrend at this time indicates aggressive buying and increased trading volume. The pattern, however, is followed by sideways or downward consolidation near the high of the initial move. This is called the flag and takes the shape of either a rectangle or a pennant, formed by slightly lower highs and lower lows.

此時的上升趨勢顯示積極的買盤和交易量的增加。然而，該模式之後是在初始走勢高點附近的橫向盤整或向下盤整。這稱為旗形，形狀為矩形或三角旗，由略低的高點和略低的低點形成。

Bitcoin appears to have broken above the flag’s upper boundary. With this position, the cryptocurrency’s value could rise to $112,500.

比特幣似乎已經突破了旗幟的上限。憑藉這一地位，加密貨幣的價值可能會升至 112,500 美元。

However, if the BTC price drops below the flag’s lower boundary, this prediction might be invalidated. It could also happen if the key Bitcoin indicators flip bearish. In that case, the value could slide to $89.867.

然而，如果 BTC 價格跌破旗形下限，則該預測可能會失效。如果關鍵的比特幣指標轉為看跌，這種情況也可能發生。在這種情況下，價值可能會下滑至 89.867 美元。