隨著市場準備迎接下行趨勢，萊特幣 (LTC) 錢包獲利能力創下 2021 年新高

過去一個月萊特幣 (LTC) 上漲了 50% 以上，反映了整個山寨幣市場的普遍上漲。然而，儘管出現了這種反彈，但一些分析師實際上認為萊特幣可能已經死了。

Litecoin (LTC) price has surged by more than 50% over the past month, largely mirroring the widespread gains across the altcoin market. However, despite this rally, some analysts now believe that Litecoin may be “dead.”

過去一個月萊特幣 (LTC) 價格飆升了 50% 以上，很大程度上反映了山寨幣市場的普遍上漲。然而，儘管出現了這種反彈，但一些分析師現在認為萊特幣可能已經「死了」。

In an X post, popular analyst Ali Martinez noted that LTC is now trading at the same price as it was back in 2017. Moreover, he argued that it now lacks the strong fundamentals to drive any long-term growth.

受歡迎的分析師 Ali Martinez 在 X 貼文中指出，LTC 目前的交易價格與 2017 年相同。

According to him, while LTC might continue to register some short-term gains, it will still be stuck within a consolidation range, rendering it a dull investment for the year.

他表示，雖然 LTC 可能會繼續獲得一些短期收益，但仍將陷入盤整區間，使其成為今年的乏味投資。

Here’s a look at some on-chain metrics that could provide further insight into Litecoin’s price performance.

以下是一些鏈上指標，可以進一步了解萊特幣的價格表現。

Litecoin wallet profitability hits 2021 highs

萊特幣錢包獲利能力創 2021 年新高

Despite this bearish outlook, Litecoin’s recent gains have led to a surge in the number of wallets that are in profit to its highest levels since 2021.

儘管前景悲觀，但萊特幣近期的上漲導致盈利的錢包數量激增，達到 2021 年以來的最高水平。

In fact, data from IntoTheBlock revealed that 78% of LTC holders, equating to 6.33 million addresses, are now profitable.

事實上，IntoTheBlock 的數據顯示，78% 的 LTC 持有者（相當於 633 萬個地址）目前正在獲利。

Conversely, the wallets that are in losses have dropped from 46% to 16% in just one month.

相反，短短一個月內，虧損的錢包就從 46% 下降到 16%。

A spike in wallet profitability could increase market confidence and lead to a bullish outlook for Litecoin. However, some traders might start to take profits, causing the trend to weaken.

錢包獲利能力的飆升可能會增強市場信心並導致萊特幣的看漲前景。然而，一些交易者可能開始獲利了結，導致趨勢減弱。

Is a high address count a positive indicator?

地址數高是正面指標嗎？

The number of active addresses on Litecoin stood at 364,000 at press time – A higher count than for most altcoins. For instance, Cardano (ADA), an altcoin with a market capitalization that is four times higher, has around 41,000 active addresses.

截至發稿時，萊特幣的活躍地址數量為 364,000 個——這一數字高於大多數山寨幣。例如，卡爾達諾（ADA）是一種市值是其四倍的山寨幣，擁有約 41,000 個活躍地址。

(Source: IntoTheBlock)

（資料來源：IntoTheBlock）

On the contrary, a look at the long-term picture revealed that Litecoin’s address count has been on a downward trajectory. Especially since at the start of the year, the active addresses stood at more than one million.

相反，從長期來看，萊特幣的地址數量一直呈下降趨勢。尤其是今年年初以來，活躍地址超過一百萬。

This suggests that Litecoin’s utility has dropped this year, which could have a negative impact on the price.

這顯示今年萊特幣的效用有所下降，這可能會對價格產生負面影響。

Litecoin price analysis as THESE bearish signs emerge

這些看跌跡像出現時的萊特幣價格分析

Litecoin, at press time, was trading at $123 after gains of 1.57% in 24 hours. This altcoin could be on the verge of a downtrend after an inverse cup and handle pattern appeared on its four-hour chart.

截至發稿時，萊特幣交易價格為 123 美元，24 小時內上漲 1.57%。在四小時圖表上出現反向杯柄圖案後，這種山寨幣可能處於下降趨勢的邊緣。

If Litecoin succumbs to this bearish pressure and the price reverses itself, traders should watch out for the neckline of this pattern at $100.65. Especially since a drop below could trigger more losses.

如果萊特幣屈服於這種看跌壓力並且價格自行反轉，交易者應該留意該模式的頸線 100.65 美元。特別是跌破可能引發更多損失。

(Source: Tradingview)

（來源：Tradingview）

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) implied that buying pressure has been weakening due to its drop to the zero line. If it flips negative, it could indicate a surge in selling activity that could lead to bearish trends.

蔡金資金流向（CMF）暗示，由於跌至零線，購買壓力正在減弱。如果它轉為負數，則可能表示拋售活動激增，從而可能導致看跌趨勢。

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence’s (MACD) histogram bars pointed to weak buying pressure. However, the MACD line on the lower timeframe was positive – A sign that momentum was still slightly bullish.

同時，移動平均線趨同分歧（MACD）長條圖顯示買盤壓力較弱。然而，較低時間框架內的 MACD 線為正——這表明勢頭仍然略為看漲。

Litecoin’s Open Interest drops

萊特幣的未平倉合約下降

Finally, data from Coinglass indicated that speculative activity around Litecoin has dropped after hitting a multi-month peak earlier this month when the OI surged to $706M.

最後，Coinglass 的數據表明，在本月初 OI 飆升至 7.06 億美元時觸及數月高點後，圍繞萊特幣的投機活動已經有所下降。

At press time, Litecoin’s OI had dropped to $531M – A sign that some traders had closed their positions.

截至發稿時，萊特幣的 OI 已降至 5.31 億美元——這表明一些交易者已經平倉。

(Source: Coinglass)

（來源：Coinglass）

A drop in OI could mean bearish sentiment due to reduced market participation as traders become cautious and indecisive.

由於交易者變得謹慎和優柔寡斷，市場參與減少，持倉下降可能意味著看跌情緒。