比特币（BTC）价格预测：尽管近期出现盘整，但比特币仍将触及更高价值

自从比特币（BTC）价格突破10万美元大关并创下历史新高以来，一直有猜测称该加密货币

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) surpassing the $100,000 price point and hitting a new all-time high, several key indicators suggest that the cryptocurrency might still have room to rally. This on-chain analysis explains why BTC price could rally again despite recent consolidation.

尽管比特币 (BTC) 的价格突破了 10 万美元并创下历史新高，但几个关键指标表明该加密货币可能仍有上涨空间。这一链上分析解释了为什么尽管最近出现了盘整，但 BTC 价格仍可能再次上涨。

At press time, BTC trades at $101,449.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 101,449 美元。

Bitcoin Price Might Rally Again: Here’s WhySeveral on-chain metrics hint at the possibility of a continued BTC price rally. One crucial metric is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) long/short difference. This metric reveals whether BTC is in a bull phase or has switched to a bear market.

比特币价格可能会再次上涨：原因如下几个链上指标暗示比特币价格可能会持续上涨。一项关键指标是市场价值与已实现价值 (MVRV) 多/空差。该指标揭示了 BTC 是否处于牛市阶段或已转向熊市。

When the MVRV long/short difference is in positive territory, it indicates that long-term holders have more unrealized profits than short-term holders. Price-wise, this is bullish for Bitcoin. On the other hand, when the metric is negative, it implies that short-term holders have the upper hand, and in most cases, it signifies a bearish phase.

当 MVRV 多空差值为正值时，表明长期持有者比短期持有者拥有更多的未实现利润。从价格角度来看，这对比特币有利。另一方面，当指标为负时，则意味着短期持有者占据上风，并且在大多数情况下，这意味着看跌阶段。

According to Santiment, Bitcoin’s MVRV long/short difference has risen to 27.25%, indicating that the current cycle is a Bitcoin bull market. However, the reading is far below 42.08, which it reached in March before experiencing months of consolidation and correction. Going by historical data, this current condition suggests that BTC is likely to surpass its all-time high before the top of this cycle.

据Santiment统计，比特币的MVRV多空差值已升至27.25%，表明当前周期是比特币牛市。然而，该读数远低于 3 月份达到的 42.08，之后经历了数月的盘整和调整。从历史数据来看，目前的情况表明，比特币很可能在本周期顶部之前突破历史新高。

Another key Bitcoin indicator that supports this bias is the Realized HOLD ratio, commonly known as the RHODL ratio. The RHODL ratio is a market indicator that is used to analyze Bitcoin market bottoms and tops.

支持这种偏见的另一个关键比特币指标是已实现持有比率，通常称为 RHODL 比率。 RHODL比率是一个市场指标，用于分析比特币市场的底部和顶部。

A high RHODL Ratio suggests the market is overheated with significant short-term activity, often used to signal cycle tops or impending corrections. A low RHODL ratio, on the other hand, indicates strong long-term holding sentiment, implying undervaluation.

高 RHODL 比率表明市场过热且存在大量短期活动，通常用于发出周期顶部或即将到来的调整的信号。另一方面，较低的 RHODL 比率表明长期持有情绪强烈，意味着估值被低估。

Based on Glassnode’s data, the Bitcoin RHODL ratio is above the green zone, indicating that it is no longer at the bottom. At the same time, it is below the red area, signifying that BTC price has not hit the top. If this remains the same, then Bitcoin might rally above its all-time high of $103,900.

根据Glassnode的数据，比特币RHODL比率位于绿色区域之上，表明它不再处于底部。同时位于红色区域下方，表明BTC价格尚未见顶。如果这种情况保持不变，那么比特币可能会升至 103,900 美元的历史高点之上。

BTC Chart by TradingView A technical analysis of the daily chart shows that Bitcoin has formed a bull flag. A bull flag is a technical pattern that indicates a potential continuation of an uptrend. The pattern shows the flagpole, which represents the initial strong upward price movement.

BTC 图表来自 TradingView 对日线图的技术分析显示，比特币已经形成了牛市旗形。牛市旗形是一种表明上升趋势可能持续的技术形态。该形态显示旗杆，代表价格最初强劲的上涨走势。

The uptrend at this time indicates aggressive buying and increased trading volume. The pattern, however, is followed by sideways or downward consolidation near the high of the initial move. This is called the flag and takes the shape of either a rectangle or a pennant, formed by slightly lower highs and lower lows.

此时的上升趋势表明积极的买盘和交易量的增加。然而，该模式之后是在初始走势高点附近的横向盘整或向下盘整。这称为旗形，形状为矩形或三角旗，由略低的高点和略低的低点形成。

Bitcoin appears to have broken above the flag’s upper boundary. With this position, the cryptocurrency’s value could rise to $112,500.

比特币似乎已经突破了旗帜的上限。凭借这一地位，加密货币的价值可能会升至 112,500 美元。

However, if the BTC price drops below the flag’s lower boundary, this prediction might be invalidated. It could also happen if the key Bitcoin indicators flip bearish. In that case, the value could slide to $89.867.

然而，如果 BTC 价格跌破旗形下限，则该预测可能会失效。如果关键的比特币指标转为看跌，这种情况也可能发生。在这种情况下，价值可能会下滑至 89.867 美元。