麥可·塞勒：比特幣佈道者

Michael Saylor 是 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 的執行主席，因其公司對比特幣的首次大膽投資而獲得了比特幣社群的認可。

Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy (MSTR), is renowned within the Bitcoin community for the company’s groundbreaking and bold investment in Bitcoin. Saylor has championed Bitcoin as “digital gold” and a superior alternative to the shiny metal.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) 執行主席 Michael Saylor 因其公司對比特幣的開創性和大膽投資而在比特幣社群中享有盛譽。塞勒將比特幣視為「數位黃金」和閃亮金屬的優質替代品。

Currently, it’s hard to find a more prominent proponent of Bitcoin than Saylor. Since he got MSTR on the “Bitcoin Standard,” MSTR has generated billions in profits and made him the industry’s top Bitcoin evangelist.

目前，很難找到比塞勒更突出的比特幣支持者了。自從他在「比特幣標準」上獲得 MSTR 以來，MSTR 已經創造了數十億美元的利潤，並使他成為業界頂級的比特幣佈道者。

“Those who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.” ~ Jesse Livermore

“既能正確又能保持冷靜的人並不常見。” 〜傑西·利弗莫爾

Irrespective of your feelings towards Bitcoin, Saylor is someone worth listening to. He has displayed extreme conviction in his Bitcoin bull thesis, never wavered from his stance, and, most importantly, been proven correct.

無論你對比特幣的看法如何，Saylor 都是值得傾聽的人。他對自己的比特幣牛市論點表現出了極端的信念，從未動搖過自己的立場，最重要的是，事實證明他是對的。

Below is an excerpt from a recent interview where he illustrates his long-term view of Bitcoin.

以下是他最近採訪的摘錄，其中闡述了他對比特幣的長期看法。

“We’re in the Bitcoin gold rush. It started in January of 2024, and it will run until about November of 2034. How many people know what will happen in November of 2034? In November of 2034, 99% of all the Bitcoin will have been mined, and the last 1% will come out over the next 100 years. So, for all practical purposes, the stock-to-flow ratio of Bitcoin is infinity, and in 2034, it becomes noise.

「我們正處於比特幣淘金熱之中。它從2024年1月開始，一直持續到2034年11月左右。到 2034 年 11 月，99% 的比特幣將被開採出來，最後 1% 將在未來 100 年內開採出來。因此，出於所有實際目的，比特幣的存量與流量之比是無限大，到 2034 年，它就會變成噪音。

"At the beginning of the gold rush, no bank could custody Bitcoin, no institutional investor could buy Bitcoin, no Wall Street trading firm. When those spot ETFs were approved, that created a fire or an avalanche. The genie is out of the bottle.

「在淘金熱開始時，沒有銀行可以託管比特幣，沒有機構投資者可以購買比特幣，沒有華爾街交易公司。當這些現貨ETF 獲得批准時，引發了一場火災或雪崩。精靈已經從瓶子裡跑出來了。

"It doesn’t matter who’s elected president next, it doesn’t matter who is the head of the SEC. No politician’s opinion, no banker opinion, no regulator opinion, matters after that date. That kicked off the gold rush.”

「下一個誰當選總統並不重要，誰是美國證券交易委員會主席也並不重要。在那一天之後，政治家的意見、銀行家的意見、監管機構的意見都不再重要。這引發了淘金熱。

Let’s break it down in simple terms:

讓我們簡單地分解一下：

Bitcoin Scarcity, ETF Approval, & Institutional Adoption

比特幣稀缺性、ETF 批准和機構採用

· Scarcity: There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin available. Unlike the dollar, gold, or any other fiat currency, Bitcoin has a fixed supply.

· 稀缺性：可用的比特幣永遠只有 2,100 萬個。與美元、黃金或任何其他法定貨幣不同，比特幣具有固定的供應量。

· ETF Approval: Bitcoin ETFs serve two functions in Saylor’s bull thesis. First, ETFs help generate demand from institutional investors and people who could not gain access to Bitcoin before. Just how big is the demand? Blackrock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has already outperformed its legacy iShares Gold ETF (IAU) in assets in 10 months. Second, the approval of ETFs makes it impossible for regulators to walk back their stance or shut down Bitcoin.

· ETF 批准：在塞勒的牛市論點中，比特幣 ETF 有兩個功能。首先，ETF 有助於激發機構投資者和以前無法獲得比特幣的人們的需求。需求到底有多大？ Blackrock (BLK) 的 iShares 比特幣 ETF (IBIT) 在 10 個月內的資產表現已超過其傳統 iShares 黃金 ETF (IAU)。其次，ETF的批准使得監管機構不可能改變立場或關閉比特幣。

· Institutional Adoption: Bitcoin ETFs, of which Coinbase (COIN) is the custodial exchange, will allow continued access for companies that follow MSTR’s lead, nation states like El Salvador, and pension funds/mutual funds.

· 機構採用：比特幣 ETF（其中 Coinbase (COIN) 是託管交易所）將允許追隨 MSTR 領導的公司、薩爾瓦多等民族國家以及退休基金/共同基金繼續使用。

Is a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Coming?

美國比特幣戰略儲備即將到來嗎？

On Nov. 6, Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis tweeted, “WE ARE GOING TO BUILD A STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE.” Lummis is an ally of President-Elect Donald Trump and has been a strong supporter of Bitcoin for years. Trump, who was once anti-crypto, has since evolved and even spoke at a Bitcoin conference earlier this year.

11 月 6 日，懷俄明州共和黨參議員 Cynthia Lummis 發推文稱，“我們將建立戰略比特幣儲備。”魯米斯是當選總統川普的盟友，多年來一直是比特幣的堅定支持者。曾經反對加密貨幣的川普後來發生了變化，甚至在今年早些時候的比特幣會議上發表了講話。

The Bitcoin Halving

比特幣減半

Historical data shows that the optimal time to own Bitcoin is ~150 days after a “halving” and near a presidential election.

歷史數據顯示，持有比特幣的最佳時間是「減半」後約 150 天且接近總統大選。

Bottom Line

底線

Michael Saylor has been spot-on with his Bitcoin prediction (and backed it up with a monstrous bet). In a recent interview, he broke down his long-term bullish thesis for Bitcoin.

邁克爾·塞勒 (Michael Saylor) 的比特幣預測非常準確（並以巨大的賭注支持了這一預測）。在最近的一次採訪中，他打破了他對比特幣的長期看漲論點。

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iShares Gold Trust (IAU): ETF Research Reports

iShares Gold Trust (IAU)：ETF 研究報告

MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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