迈克尔·塞勒：比特币布道者

Michael Saylor 是 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 的执行主席，因其公司对比特币的首次大胆投资而获得了比特币社区的认可。

Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy (MSTR), is renowned within the Bitcoin community for the company’s groundbreaking and bold investment in Bitcoin. Saylor has championed Bitcoin as “digital gold” and a superior alternative to the shiny metal.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) 执行主席 Michael Saylor 因其公司对比特币的开创性和大胆投资而在比特币社区中享有盛誉。塞勒将比特币视为“数字黄金”和闪亮金属的优质替代品。

Currently, it’s hard to find a more prominent proponent of Bitcoin than Saylor. Since he got MSTR on the “Bitcoin Standard,” MSTR has generated billions in profits and made him the industry’s top Bitcoin evangelist.

目前，很难找到比塞勒更突出的比特币支持者了。自从他在“比特币标准”上获得 MSTR 以来，MSTR 已经创造了数十亿美元的利润，并使他成为业界顶级的比特币布道者。

“Those who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.” ~ Jesse Livermore

“既能正确又能保持冷静的人并不常见。” 〜杰西·利弗莫尔

Irrespective of your feelings towards Bitcoin, Saylor is someone worth listening to. He has displayed extreme conviction in his Bitcoin bull thesis, never wavered from his stance, and, most importantly, been proven correct.

无论你对比特币的看法如何，Saylor 都是值得倾听的人。他对自己的比特币牛市论点表现出了极端的信念，从未动摇过自己的立场，最重要的是，事实证明他是正确的。

Below is an excerpt from a recent interview where he illustrates his long-term view of Bitcoin.

以下是他最近采访的摘录，其中阐述了他对比特币的长期看法。

“We’re in the Bitcoin gold rush. It started in January of 2024, and it will run until about November of 2034. How many people know what will happen in November of 2034? In November of 2034, 99% of all the Bitcoin will have been mined, and the last 1% will come out over the next 100 years. So, for all practical purposes, the stock-to-flow ratio of Bitcoin is infinity, and in 2034, it becomes noise.

“我们正处于比特币淘金热之中。它从2024年1月开始，一直持续到2034年11月左右。有多少人知道2034年11月会发生什么？到 2034 年 11 月，99% 的比特币将被开采出来，最后 1% 将在未来 100 年内开采出来。因此，出于所有实际目的，比特币的存量与流量之比是无穷大，到 2034 年，它就会变成噪音。

"At the beginning of the gold rush, no bank could custody Bitcoin, no institutional investor could buy Bitcoin, no Wall Street trading firm. When those spot ETFs were approved, that created a fire or an avalanche. The genie is out of the bottle.

“在淘金热开始时，没有银行可以托管比特币，没有机构投资者可以购买比特币，没有华尔街交易公司。当这些现货 ETF 获得批准时，引发了一场火灾或雪崩。精灵已经从瓶子里跑出来了。” 。

"It doesn’t matter who’s elected president next, it doesn’t matter who is the head of the SEC. No politician’s opinion, no banker opinion, no regulator opinion, matters after that date. That kicked off the gold rush.”

“下一个谁当选总统并不重要，谁是美国证券交易委员会主席也并不重要。在那一天之后，政治家的意见、银行家的意见、监管机构的意见都不再重要。这引发了淘金热。”

Let’s break it down in simple terms:

让我们简单地分解一下：

Bitcoin Scarcity, ETF Approval, & Institutional Adoption

比特币稀缺性、ETF 批准和机构采用

· Scarcity: There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin available. Unlike the dollar, gold, or any other fiat currency, Bitcoin has a fixed supply.

· 稀缺性：可用的比特币永远只有 2100 万个。与美元、黄金或任何其他法定货币不同，比特币具有固定的供应量。

· ETF Approval: Bitcoin ETFs serve two functions in Saylor’s bull thesis. First, ETFs help generate demand from institutional investors and people who could not gain access to Bitcoin before. Just how big is the demand? Blackrock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has already outperformed its legacy iShares Gold ETF (IAU) in assets in 10 months. Second, the approval of ETFs makes it impossible for regulators to walk back their stance or shut down Bitcoin.

· ETF 批准：在塞勒的牛市论点中，比特币 ETF 有两个功能。首先，ETF 有助于激发机构投资者和以前无法获得比特币的人们的需求。需求到底有多大？ Blackrock (BLK) 的 iShares 比特币 ETF (IBIT) 在 10 个月内的资产表现已超过其传统 iShares 黄金 ETF (IAU)。其次，ETF的批准使得监管机构不可能改变立场或关闭比特币。

· Institutional Adoption: Bitcoin ETFs, of which Coinbase (COIN) is the custodial exchange, will allow continued access for companies that follow MSTR’s lead, nation states like El Salvador, and pension funds/mutual funds.

· 机构采用：比特币 ETF（其中 Coinbase (COIN) 是托管交易所）将允许追随 MSTR 领导的公司、萨尔瓦多等民族国家以及养老基金/共同基金继续使用。

Is a U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Coming?

美国比特币战略储备即将到来吗？

On Nov. 6, Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis tweeted, “WE ARE GOING TO BUILD A STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE.” Lummis is an ally of President-Elect Donald Trump and has been a strong supporter of Bitcoin for years. Trump, who was once anti-crypto, has since evolved and even spoke at a Bitcoin conference earlier this year.

11 月 6 日，怀俄明州共和党参议员 Cynthia Lummis 发推文称，“我们将建立战略比特币储备。”鲁米斯是当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的盟友，多年来一直是比特币的坚定支持者。曾经反对加密货币的特朗普后来发生了变化，甚至在今年早些时候的比特币会议上发表了讲话。

The Bitcoin Halving

比特币减半

Historical data shows that the optimal time to own Bitcoin is ~150 days after a “halving” and near a presidential election.

历史数据显示，持有比特币的最佳时间是“减半”后约 150 天且临近总统选举。

Bottom Line

底线

Michael Saylor has been spot-on with his Bitcoin prediction (and backed it up with a monstrous bet). In a recent interview, he broke down his long-term bullish thesis for Bitcoin.

迈克尔·塞勒 (Michael Saylor) 的比特币预测非常准确（并以巨大的赌注支持了这一预测）。在最近的一次采访中，他打破了他对比特币的长期看涨论点。

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