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自 2022 年 11 月低點以來,加密貨幣市場大幅反彈,比特幣創下歷史新高,總市值接近 3 兆美元。受現貨比特幣 ETF 的推出以及質押和代幣化前景的吸引,機構投資者正在推動當前的牛市。然而,散戶也在參與其中,擁抱人工智慧和迷因幣等高風險、高回報的投資。隨著傳統金融機構和散戶投資者紛紛擁抱數位資產,這種加密貨幣的製度化預計將帶來創新和更廣泛的採用。
Crypto Market Poised for Monumental Ascension: Institutional Embrace Propels Crypto to New Heights
加密貨幣市場即將迎來巨大的提升:機構擁抱將加密貨幣推向新的高度
The crypto market has soared to unprecedented levels this year, defying the bearish sentiment that lingered after the FTX implosion. Bitcoin, the industry's bellwether currency, has regained its former glory, reaching a new all-time high of nearly $73,740, a remarkable feat considering its November 2022 low of approximately $16,000. The total crypto market capitalization is inching closer to the coveted $3 trillion mark, signaling a renewed wave of optimism and excitement.
今年,加密貨幣市場飆升至前所未有的水平,無視 FTX 崩盤後揮之不去的看跌情緒。比特幣作為該行業的領頭羊,已重拾昔日輝煌,創下近 73,740 美元的歷史新高,考慮到 2022 年 11 月約 16,000 美元的低點,這是一個了不起的壯舉。加密貨幣總市值正在逼近令人垂涎的 3 兆美元大關,預示著新一輪的樂觀和興奮浪潮。
But where is this crypto resurgence headed? As prices surge and euphoria grips the market, it's imperative to delve into the underlying factors that are propelling this remarkable rally.
但加密貨幣的復興將走向何方?隨著價格飆升和市場的歡欣鼓舞,有必要深入研究推動這一顯著上漲的潛在因素。
Institutional Participation: The Game-Changer
機構參與:遊戲規則的改變者
A pivotal turning point for the crypto industry occurred last year when several established financial institutions announced their foray into Bitcoin-linked investment products. This trend gained further momentum in January when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved nearly a dozen Spot BTC ETFs, essentially opening the door for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities of owning the asset directly.
去年,當幾家知名金融機構宣布進軍與比特幣相關的投資產品時,加密產業出現了關鍵轉折點。這一趨勢在1 月份得到了進一步發展,當時美國證券交易委員會(SEC) 批准了近十幾隻現貨BTC ETF,從本質上為投資者打開了投資比特幣的大門,而無需直接擁有該資產的複雜性。
These regulatory-compliant products have proven immensely popular, attracting a substantial $11.7 billion in total inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT Fund leading the charge with $13.5 billion, followed by Fidelity's FBTC at close to $7.5 billion. Conversely, Grayscale has faced net outflows of $14.36 billion, reducing its assets under management (AUM) to just under $23.8 billion.
事實證明,這些符合監管要求的產品非常受歡迎,吸引了高達117 億美元的總資金流入,其中貝萊德(BlackRock) 的IBIT 基金以135 億美元的資金領先,富達(Fidelity) 的FBTC 緊隨其後,接近75 億美元。相反,灰階面臨 143.6 億美元的淨流出,其管理資產 (AUM) 減少至略低於 238 億美元。
This shift is pivotal, as it highlights a stark departure from the previous bull run, which was primarily driven by retail investors. This time, it's the institutional players who are driving the narrative, particularly when it comes to major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
這一轉變至關重要,因為它凸顯了與之前主要由散戶投資者推動的牛市的明顯背離。這次,是機構參與者在推動敘事,特別是在涉及比特幣等主要加密貨幣時。
"Psychological Shift": TradFi Embraces Crypto
「心理轉變」:TradFi 擁抱加密貨幣
The influx of traditional market participants into the crypto space has triggered a "psychological shift," with Bitcoin leading the charge, bolstered by the support of major financial institutions. Goldman Sachs, a titan of the financial world, has reported a "big sea-change" in terms of both the volumes and the types of clients engaging in crypto-related activities, enabling the firm to expand its crypto trading desk.
傳統市場參與者湧入加密貨幣領域引發了“心理轉變”,在主要金融機構的支持下,比特幣引領潮流。金融界巨頭高盛報告稱,參與加密貨幣相關活動的客戶數量和類型都發生了“巨大變化”,使該公司能夠擴大其加密貨幣交易平台。
This institutional interest is expected to intensify as ETF providers ramp up their promotional efforts. Furthermore, spot Bitcoin ETF options and an Ethereum Spot ETF await regulatory approval, further expanding the options available to investors.
隨著 ETF 供應商加強促銷力度,這種機構興趣預計將會增強。此外,現貨比特幣 ETF 選擇權和以太坊現貨 ETF 正在等待監管部門批准,進一步擴大了投資者的選擇範圍。
Notably, TradFi institutions are not only filing for spot ETH ETF but are also embracing staking services for their clients and participating in the tokenization trend. These initiatives serve to strengthen the crypto industry and legitimize its role within the broader financial landscape.
值得注意的是,TradFi 機構不僅正在申請現貨 ETH ETF,還為其客戶提供質押服務並參與代幣化趨勢。這些措施有助於加強加密貨幣產業,並使其在更廣泛的金融領域中的作用合法化。
Regulatory Tailwinds: Paving the Way for Adoption
監管順風:為採用鋪路
Regulatory developments are also aiding the institutional embrace of cryptocurrencies. The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has permitted stock exchanges to list crypto ETNs (exchange-traded notes), but only for institutional investors. Additionally, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has finalized the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) rules, which will further facilitate crypto engagement by institutions. Thailand's SEC has taken a similar step, allowing institutions and ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWI) to invest in crypto ETF funds.
監管的發展也有助於加密貨幣的機構接受。英國金融行為監理局 (FCA) 已允許證券交易所上市加密貨幣 ETN(交易所交易票據),但僅限機構投資者。此外,歐洲證券和市場管理局(ESMA)已敲定加密資產市場(MiCA)規則,這將進一步促進機構參與加密貨幣。泰國 SEC 也採取了類似步驟,讓機構和超高淨值人士 (UHNWI) 投資加密 ETF 基金。
The entry of institutional exchanges, OTC marketplaces, clearinghouses, and custodians into the crypto ecosystem further underscores the growing acceptance of digital assets as a legitimate investment class.
機構交易所、場外交易市場、清算所和託管人進入加密生態系統進一步凸顯了數位資產作為合法投資類別的日益接受度。
Innovation and Mass Adoption
創新和大規模採用
While institutions are focusing on major cryptocurrencies and largely avoiding high-risk, high-return investments like AI tokens, meme coins, and ERC-20 tokens, these ventures continue to captivate retail investors.
雖然機構專注於主要加密貨幣,並在很大程度上避免高風險、高回報的投資,如 AI 代幣、meme 幣和 ERC-20 代幣,但這些企業繼續吸引散戶投資者。
Retail investors, often priced out of BTC and ETH, are embracing the potential for financial freedom offered by these alternative assets. Dogecoin, Dogwifhat (WIF), Book of Meme (BOME), SLERF, Popcat, Mog Coin, and Jeo Boden (BODEN) have garnered significant attention, demonstrating the appetite for entertainment and price appreciation that drives retail interest. This trend is likely to persist in the foreseeable future.
經常因價格過高而放棄比特幣和以太坊的散戶投資者正在擁抱這些另類資產帶來的財務自由的潛力。 Dogecoin、Dogwifhat (WIF)、Book of Meme (BOME)、SLERF、Popcat、Mog Coin 和 Jeo Boden (BODEN) 引起了極大關注,顯示了對娛樂和價格升值的興趣,從而推動了零售興趣。在可預見的未來,這種趨勢可能會持續下去。
"The ongoing trend is distinct from the last bull market, with institutions entering in droves thanks to ETFs," explained Hassan Hatu Sheikh, Founder of Ape Terminal. "As we have observed, large investors favor both Bitcoin and Ethereum. But while it is starting with the majors, the institutionalization trend will soon encompass the entire industry, a process that has already begun with tokenization and staking."
Ape Terminal 創始人哈桑·哈圖·謝赫 (Hassan Hatu Sheikh) 解釋說:“當前的趨勢與上一次牛市不同,機構紛紛借助 ETF 進入牛市。” 「正如我們所觀察到的,大型投資者都青睞比特幣和以太坊。但是,雖然它是從主要領域開始的,但制度化趨勢很快就會涵蓋整個行業,這一過程已經從代幣化和質押開始。”
According to Hatu Sheikh, the crypto industry's adaptation to TradFi's needs will drive innovation in this institutional era, potentially leading to the mainstream breakthrough of a crypto-native application.
Hatu Sheikh 表示,加密產業對 TradFi 需求的適應將推動這個制度時代的創新,有可能導致加密原生應用程式的主流突破。
While many believe this cycle will be institutionally led, the impact of retail investors on alternative coins and narratives cannot be overlooked.
儘管許多人認為這個週期將由制度主導,但散戶投資者對另類代幣和敘事的影響不容忽視。
Beyond the meme coin and institutional narratives, the macroeconomic environment plays a critical role in the market's future. The Federal Reserve seeks "great confidence" that inflation is receding before considering rate cuts, a stance that generally supports price increases.
除了迷因硬幣和機構敘事之外,宏觀經濟環境對市場的未來也起著至關重要的作用。聯準會在考慮降息之前尋求通膨正在消退的“極大信心”,這一立場通常支持物價上漲。
Halving and Broader Adoption: Fueling the Next Wave
減半和更廣泛的採用:推動下一波浪潮
In the crypto market, the upcoming halving is poised to reshape the Bitcoin mining industry, as miners' profitability will be impacted by a 50% reduction in their BTC rewards.
在加密貨幣市場,即將到來的減半將重塑比特幣挖礦業,因為礦工的獲利能力將受到 BTC 獎勵減少 50% 的影響。
Overall, the convergence of ETF investments targeting pension funds and other TradFi investments, staking for passive income, stablecoins for remittances, tokenization bridging the gap between traditional finance and crypto, and meme coins fueling retail mania will collectively propel crypto adoption to new heights. This time, cryptocurrencies are poised to gain even wider acceptance, potentially overshadowing previous rallies in terms of growth and impact.
總體而言,針對退休基金和其他TradFi 投資的ETF 投資的融合、被動收入的質押、用於匯款的穩定幣、彌合傳統金融和加密貨幣之間差距的代幣化以及助長零售狂熱的模因幣將共同推動加密貨幣的採用達到新的高度。這一次,加密貨幣有望獲得更廣泛的接受,在成長和影響方面可能會蓋過先前的反彈。
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