宏觀經濟不確定性將比特幣（BTC）保持在較小的價​​格範圍內

宏觀經濟不確定性將比特幣（BTC）保持在價格較高的價格範圍內，因為流動性由於投機興趣和交易量的下降而繼續簽約

Macroeconomic uncertainty is keeping Bitcoin (BTC) in a tight price range as liquidity continues to contract due to declining speculative interest and trading volumes, according to the latest “Bitfinex Alpha” report.

根據最新的“ Bitfinex Alpha”報告，宏觀經濟不確定性正在使流動性繼續降低，因此將比特幣（BTC）保持在嚴格的價格範圍內。

The firm said that large investors’ interest needs to return to push Bitcoin out of its current range. It highlighted that Bitcoin briefly gained momentum after opening last week near $82,791, driven by speculation surrounding former President Donald Trump’s speech at the Digital Asset Summit.

該公司表示，大型投資者的權益需要返回以將比特幣從目前的範圍內推出。它強調，在上週開盤近82,791美元之後，比特幣在圍繞前總統唐納德·特朗普在數字資產峰會上的講話的猜測驅動。

However, despite the positive comments, the rally was short-lived, and the event became a “sell-the-news” moment for the market. It temporarily pushed BTC to as low as $81,366 before recovering to close the week up 4.2% following an optimistic FOMC meeting.

但是，儘管有積極的評論，但集會是短暫的，這次活動成為市場的“賣新聞”時刻。它暫時將BTC推高到低至81,366美元，然後在FOMC開會之後恢復到收於本週的4.2％。

Outlook remains gloomy

展望仍然令人沮喪

Despite the modest weekly gain, underlying market indicators suggest waning momentum. The report noted that volatility and liquidity have declined, reinforcing the trend of Bitcoin responding more directly to macroeconomic developments.

儘管每周有適中的收益，但潛在的市場指標表明勢頭減弱。該報告指出，波動性和流動性已經下降，加強了比特幣對宏觀經濟發展的反應的趨勢。

Investors remain divided over the direction of monetary policy, with no consensus on whether the Federal Reserve will adopt a dovish or hawkish stance. This lack of clarity has reduced speculative conviction and heightened Bitcoin’s sensitivity to external policy cues.

投資者在貨幣政策的方向上仍然有分歧，而美聯儲是否會採取骯髒的或霍克斯的立場，沒有共識。缺乏清晰度減少了投機性的定罪，並提高了比特幣對外部政策提示的敏感性。

One metric reflecting the current market structure is Bitcoin’s “Hot Supply,” a measure of liquid capital defined by weekly-moving coins. After peaking in December 2024, Hot Supply has contracted from 5.9% to just 2.8% of the total circulating supply.

一個反映當前市場結構的度量是比特幣的“熱供應”，這是通過每週移動硬幣定義的液態資本量度。在2024年12月達到頂峰之後，Hot Supply從5.9％到循環供應總額的2.8％。

This more than 50% reduction highlights a broad decline in short-term trading activity and market participation, suggesting a retreat of speculative capital and increasing investor caution. Investors are transacting fewer coins, and active trading behavior has declined.

這超過50％的人降低了短期交易活動和市場參與的廣泛下降，這表明投機資本的撤退並增加了投資者的謹慎。投資者正在交易硬幣，積極的交易行為也有所下降。

Historically, such reductions in liquid supply tend to precede long-term market bottoms, though the report refrains from offering any forward-looking statements beyond the current environment.

從歷史上看，這種液體供應的減少往往是長期市場底層的，儘管該報告避免提供當前環境以外的任何前瞻性陳述。

In tandem, Bitcoin exchange inflows—a proxy for near-term trading intent—have dropped from 58,600 BTC per day in December to 26,900 BTC, based on a 14-day rolling average.

根據14天的平均滾動，比特幣交換的流入（近期交易意圖的代理）從每天的58,600 BTC下降到26,900 BTC，基於14天的平均水平。

This marks a 54% decline in coins sent to exchanges, reinforcing the broader trend of subdued market activity. Outside a brief break in range-bound trading toward the end of February, which saw BTC fall below the $91,000–$102,000 corridor, exchange-related flows have steadily declined.

這標誌著發送到交易所的硬幣下降了54％，從而加強了柔和的市場活動的更廣泛趨勢。在2月底，在短暫的距離交易中短暫休息，BTC降至91,000至102,000美元的走廊以下，與交易所相關的流動穩步下降。

Liquidity conditions

流動性條件

The alignment between falling Hot Supply and reduced exchange inflows indicates weakened demand-side pressure.

熱供應下降與減少的交換流入之間的對齊表明需求側壓力減弱。

As traders send fewer coins to trading platforms, the likelihood of near-term selling diminishes, suggesting that market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

隨著貿易商將硬幣較少到交易平台，近期銷售的可能性減少，這表明市場參與者正在採用等待方式。

This dynamic reflects a broader risk-off sentiment, with investors refraining from actively deploying capital without clear macroeconomic signals.

這種動態反映了更廣泛的風險情緒，投資者避免在沒有明確的宏觀經濟信號的情況下積極部署資本。

The reduced flow of capital into the trading ecosystem suggests that institutional and retail players alike are reluctant to initiate new positions without greater conviction.

資本流入貿易生態系統的流量減少表明，機構和零售參與者都不願意啟動新職位而沒有更大的信念。

Bitcoin’s price continues to be shaped more closely by shifts in liquidity conditions and global economic sentiment than by endogenous crypto market developments.

比比特幣的價格繼續受到流動性狀況和全球經濟情緒的轉變比內源性加密市場的發展更加緊密。

The contraction in liquidity and decline in speculative behavior are key indicators of the current cautious stance across the digital asset market.

流動性和投機行為下降的收縮是整個數字資產市場當前謹慎立場的關鍵指標。