宏观经济不确定性将比特币（BTC）保持在较小的价​​格范围内

宏观经济不确定性将比特币（BTC）保持在价格较高的价格范围内，因为流动性由于投机兴趣和交易量的下降而继续签约

Macroeconomic uncertainty is keeping Bitcoin (BTC) in a tight price range as liquidity continues to contract due to declining speculative interest and trading volumes, according to the latest “Bitfinex Alpha” report.

根据最新的“ Bitfinex Alpha”报告，宏观经济不确定性正在使流动性继续降低，因此将比特币（BTC）保持在严格的价格范围内。

The firm said that large investors’ interest needs to return to push Bitcoin out of its current range. It highlighted that Bitcoin briefly gained momentum after opening last week near $82,791, driven by speculation surrounding former President Donald Trump’s speech at the Digital Asset Summit.

该公司表示，大型投资者的权益需要返回以将比特币从目前的范围内推出。它强调，在上周开盘近82,791美元之后，比特币在围绕前总统唐纳德·特朗普在数字资产峰会上的讲话的猜测驱动。

However, despite the positive comments, the rally was short-lived, and the event became a “sell-the-news” moment for the market. It temporarily pushed BTC to as low as $81,366 before recovering to close the week up 4.2% following an optimistic FOMC meeting.

但是，尽管有积极的评论，但集会是短暂的，这次活动成为市场的“卖新闻”时刻。它暂时将BTC推高到低至81,366美元，然后在FOMC开会之后恢复到收于本周的4.2％。

Outlook remains gloomy

展望仍然令人沮丧

Despite the modest weekly gain, underlying market indicators suggest waning momentum. The report noted that volatility and liquidity have declined, reinforcing the trend of Bitcoin responding more directly to macroeconomic developments.

尽管每周有适中的收益，但潜在的市场指标表明势头减弱。该报告指出，波动性和流动性已经下降，加强了比特币对宏观经济发展的反应的趋势。

Investors remain divided over the direction of monetary policy, with no consensus on whether the Federal Reserve will adopt a dovish or hawkish stance. This lack of clarity has reduced speculative conviction and heightened Bitcoin’s sensitivity to external policy cues.

投资者在货币政策的方向上仍然有分歧，而美联储是否会采取肮脏的或霍克斯的立场，没有共识。缺乏清晰度减少了投机性的定罪，并提高了比特币对外部政策提示的敏感性。

One metric reflecting the current market structure is Bitcoin’s “Hot Supply,” a measure of liquid capital defined by weekly-moving coins. After peaking in December 2024, Hot Supply has contracted from 5.9% to just 2.8% of the total circulating supply.

一个反映当前市场结构的度量是比特币的“热供应”，这是通过每周移动硬币定义的液态资本量度。在2024年12月达到顶峰之后，Hot Supply从5.9％到循环供应总额的2.8％。

This more than 50% reduction highlights a broad decline in short-term trading activity and market participation, suggesting a retreat of speculative capital and increasing investor caution. Investors are transacting fewer coins, and active trading behavior has declined.

这超过50％的人降低了短期交易活动和市场参与的广泛下降，这表明投机资本的撤退并增加了投资者的谨慎。投资者正在交易硬币，积极的交易行为也有所下降。

Historically, such reductions in liquid supply tend to precede long-term market bottoms, though the report refrains from offering any forward-looking statements beyond the current environment.

从历史上看，这种液体供应的减少往往是长期市场底层的，尽管该报告避免提供当前环境以外的任何前瞻性陈述。

In tandem, Bitcoin exchange inflows—a proxy for near-term trading intent—have dropped from 58,600 BTC per day in December to 26,900 BTC, based on a 14-day rolling average.

根据14天的平均滚动，比特币交换的流入（近期交易意图的代理）从每天的58,600 BTC下降到26,900 BTC，基于14天的平均水平。

This marks a 54% decline in coins sent to exchanges, reinforcing the broader trend of subdued market activity. Outside a brief break in range-bound trading toward the end of February, which saw BTC fall below the $91,000–$102,000 corridor, exchange-related flows have steadily declined.

这标志着发送到交易所的硬币下降了54％，从而加强了柔和的市场活动的更广泛趋势。在2月底，在短暂的距离交易中短暂休息，BTC降至91,000至102,000美元的走廊以下，与交易所相关的流动稳步下降。

Liquidity conditions

流动性条件

The alignment between falling Hot Supply and reduced exchange inflows indicates weakened demand-side pressure.

热供应下降与减少的交换流入之间的对齐表明需求侧压力减弱。

As traders send fewer coins to trading platforms, the likelihood of near-term selling diminishes, suggesting that market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

随着贸易商将硬币较少到交易平台，近期销售的可能性减少，这表明市场参与者正在采用等待方式。

This dynamic reflects a broader risk-off sentiment, with investors refraining from actively deploying capital without clear macroeconomic signals.

这种动态反映了更广泛的风险情绪，投资者避免在没有明确的宏观经济信号的情况下积极部署资本。

The reduced flow of capital into the trading ecosystem suggests that institutional and retail players alike are reluctant to initiate new positions without greater conviction.

资本流入贸易生态系统的流量减少表明，机构和零售参与者都不愿意启动新职位而没有更大的信念。

Bitcoin’s price continues to be shaped more closely by shifts in liquidity conditions and global economic sentiment than by endogenous crypto market developments.

比比特币的价格继续受到流动性状况和全球经济情绪的转变比内源性加密市场的发展更加紧密。

The contraction in liquidity and decline in speculative behavior are key indicators of the current cautious stance across the digital asset market.

流动性和投机行为下降的收缩是整个数字资产市场当前谨慎立场的关键指标。