迫在眉睫的去美元化與黃金的崛起

在對通貨膨脹和不確定的經濟狀況的擔憂中，黃金和比特幣價格的飆升引發了人們對去美元化和金本位制潛在回歸概念的興趣。各國央行增加購買黃金以及地緣政治變化，包括金磚國家+國家的去美元化努力，都顯示美元主導地位的趨勢正在減弱。隨著法定貨幣走弱，投資者正在尋求黃金等避險資產，由於通貨膨脹和經濟脆弱性，黃金的基本面被視為強勁。支持者認為，黃金支持的經濟可以減少波動性並創造一個更公平的市場。

The Impending De-dollarization and the Resurgence of Gold

即將到來的去美元化和黃金的復甦

In the ever-evolving global economic landscape, a paradigm shift is underway, characterized by the erosion of the dollar's dominance and the rise of a new era of de-dollarization. This dynamic has spurred a reassessment of the role of gold, a time-honored asset that has served as a store of value for centuries.

在不斷變化的全球經濟格局中，範式轉變正在發生，其特徵是美元主導地位的削弱和去美元化新時代的興起。這種動態促使人們重新評估黃金的作用，黃金是一種歷史悠久的資產，幾個世紀以來一直充當價值儲存手段。

The Convergence of Gold and Bitcoin: A Symptom of Currency Turmoil

黃金和比特幣的融合：貨幣動盪的徵兆

Recent weeks have witnessed a surge in the prices of both gold and Bitcoin, a development that cannot be dismissed as mere coincidence. Both assets have benefited from the prevailing economic headwinds, including soaring inflation, market volatility, and elevated interest rates. Nevertheless, their simultaneous appreciation underscores investors' growing skepticism about the ability of the US and other Western economies to sustain high-interest rates given their astronomical debt burdens.

最近幾週，黃金和比特幣的價格都在飆升，這一發展不能只是被視為巧合。這兩種資產都受益於當前的經濟逆風，包括通膨飆升、市場波動和利率上升。然而，鑑於美國和其他西方經濟體的天文債務負擔，它們的同時升值凸顯了投資者對美國和其他西方經濟體維持高利率的能力日益懷疑。

The Underlying Factors Propelling Gold and Bitcoin

推動黃金和比特幣發展的根本因素

Gold, a traditional haven asset, has responded favorably to the US Federal Reserve's increased economic growth forecasts, slightly higher inflation, and unanimous decision to maintain interest rates at a 23-year high of 5.25–5.5 percent. These factors have propelled gold prices to new highs of $2,364 an ounce, with further potential for growth driven by central banks' ongoing appetite for the precious metal.

黃金作為傳統的避險資產，對聯準會上調的經濟成長預測、小幅上漲的通膨以及一致決定將利率維持在23年高點5.25-5.5%的反應良好。這些因素推動金價升至每盎司 2,364 美元的新高，央行對貴金屬的持續需求推動了金價進一步成長的潛力。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin, hailed as a digital store of value, has reached record highs of $73,750 on March 14, fueled by buoyant investor sentiment and a surge in capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. The cryptocurrency is poised to continue its upward trajectory as it approaches its next "halving."

同時，在投資者情緒高漲和比特幣 ETF 資本流入激增的推動下，被譽為數位價值儲存手段的比特幣在 3 月 14 日創下了 73,750 美元的歷史新高。隨著接近下一次“減半”，加密貨幣有望繼續其上升趨勢。

The Eroding Dominance of the US Dollar and the Call for Alternatives

美元主導地位的削弱和對替代品的呼聲

Amidst the rally in safe-haven assets and the weakening of fiat currencies, a pertinent question arises: Are the record-breaking prices of gold and Bitcoin justified by the confluence of inflation and unsustainable debt? The answer lies in a profound skepticism towards the sustainability of high US interest rates and the potential long-term consequences of the nation's rapidly escalating debt.

在避險資產上漲和法定貨幣疲軟的情況下，出現了一個相關問題：黃金和比特幣破紀錄的價格是否因通貨膨脹和不可持續債務的共同作用而合理？答案在於對美國高利率的可持續性以及該國債務迅速升級的潛在長期後果的深刻懷疑。

The US national debt has been climbing at an alarming pace, reaching $34.4 trillion in February. This unprecedented accumulation of debt, exacerbated by the current administration's aggressive printing policies, has raised concerns about the potential for a sovereign default. While the likelihood of such an event remains uncertain, its repercussions could be cataclysmic, according to experts. Even a short-term breach could send shockwaves through global financial markets, prompting calls for viable alternatives to the US dollar.

美國國債一直以驚人的速度攀升，2月達到34.4兆美元。現任政府激進的印鈔政策加劇了前所未有的債務積累，引發了人們對主權違約可能性的擔憂。專家表示，雖然此類事件發生的可能性仍不確定，但其影響可能是災難性的。即使是短期的違約也可能會給全球金融市場帶來衝擊，促使人們呼籲尋找美元的可行替代品。

The Strategic Response: Central Banks De-dollarize

策略因應：央行去美元化

In a move that has largely escaped public notice, central banks have been accumulating physical gold at record volumes over the past two years. This trend reflects a shift in strategy as central banks seek to diversify their reserves and reduce their exposure to the dollar.

過去兩年，各國央行一直在以創紀錄的數量累積實體黃金，這項舉措在很大程度上沒有引起大眾的注意。這一趨勢反映了各國央行尋求外匯存底多元化並減少美元敞口的策略轉變。

Russia's experience with being "frozen out" of USDs has served as a cautionary tale for other nations. Many countries have taken heed, recognizing the risks associated with relying heavily on the dollar. Others have reacted to the adverse effects of rising interest rates.

俄羅斯被美元「凍結」的經驗對其他國家來說是一個警示。許多國家已經注意到了嚴重依賴美元所帶來的風險。其他人則對利率上升的不利影響做出了反應。

De-dollarization: A Global Phenomenon

去美元化：全球現象

The de-dollarization trend extends far beyond central banks. As highlighted by JPMorgan's August 2023 report, the US dollar's hegemony is "in question due to geopolitical and geostrategic shifts." Emerging markets and commodity producers are also exploring alternatives to the dollar.

去美元化趨勢遠遠超出了央行的範圍。正如摩根大通 2023 年 8 月的報告所強調的那樣，美元的霸權「由於地緣政治和地緣戰略的變化而受到質疑」。新興市場和大宗商品生產國也正在探索美元的替代品。

Several nations, including Bolivia, Brazil, and Argentina, have begun settling imports and exports using the Chinese renminbi. The Reserve Bank of India has requested Gulf exporters to accept rupees for a portion of their oil payments. Russia and the BRICS group are collaborating on a payment system based on blockchain and digital technologies.

玻利維亞、巴西和阿根廷等多個國家已開始使用人民幣進行進出口結算。印度儲備銀行已要求海灣出口商接受盧比作為部分石油付款。俄羅斯和金磚國家正在合作開發基於區塊鏈和數位技術的支付系統。

In the Middle East, the UAE and India have initiated a framework for bilateral transactions using local currencies. Symbolically, a UAE gold exporter recently invoiced an Indian buyer in Indian rupees for a gold sale.

在中東，阿聯酋和印度啟動了使用當地貨幣的雙邊交易框架。具有像徵意義的是，一家阿聯酋黃金出口商最近以印度盧比向印度買家開出了黃金銷售發票。

Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Matter of Preference

比特幣與黃金：偏好問題

While both Bitcoin and gold are perceived as haven assets, investors have varied preferences. Fergus Hodgson, director of Econ Americas, emphasizes gold's long history as a reliable store of value, while acknowledging the precariousness of Bitcoin's status due to its relative newcomer status in global markets.

雖然比特幣和黃金都被視為避險資產，但投資者卻有不同的偏好。 Econ Americas 總監 Fergus Hodgson 強調黃金作為可靠的價值儲存手段的悠久歷史，同時也承認比特幣由於其在全球市場上相對較新的地位而不穩定。

Nonetheless, Bitcoin's finite supply of 21 million coins theoretically insulates it from the manipulation that can plague fiat currencies. However, the same argument can be made for gold, with the caveat of undiscovered or recyclable reserves.

儘管如此，比特幣 2,100 萬枚的有限供應從理論上可以使其免受困擾法定貨幣的操縱行為的影響。然而，同樣的論點也適用於黃金，但需要注意未發現或可回收的儲量。

Ultimately, investors must weigh the benefits and risks of both assets based on their individual circumstances and risk tolerances.

最終，投資者必須根據個人情況和風險承受能力權衡兩種資產的收益和風險。

The Growing Influence of the BRICS+ Nations

金磚+國家影響力日益增強

A discernible trend suggests a transition away from the US dollar and towards a new collective powerhouse in the form of the BRICS+ nations. China and Russia, the top two gold producers globally, are joined by four of the largest gold consumers in this alliance. The balance of power appears to be shifting eastwards, with the trading bloc gravitating towards a gold-backed standard.

一個明顯的趨勢表明，人們正在從美元轉向金磚五國+國家形式的新集體強國。全球最大的兩個黃金生產國中國和俄羅斯，以及四個最大的黃金消費國也加入了這個聯盟。權力平衡似乎正在東移，貿易集團傾向金本位制。

Reviving the Gold Standard: A Potential Solution

恢復金本位制：一個潛在的解決方案

As the global economy navigates this turbulent period, a reassessment of the gold standard is warranted. Its proponents argue that gold's inherent scarcity and immutability make it an ideal basis for international exchange, potentially mitigating the risks associated with fiat currencies.

隨著全球經濟經歷這段動盪時期，有必要重新評估金本位。其支持者認為，黃金固有的稀缺性和不變性使其成為國際交易的理想基礎，有可能減輕與法定貨幣相關的風險。

A Globally Inclusive Future

全球包容的未來

If the projected de-dollarization and resurgence of gold materialize, other areas of demand will need to be addressed. The establishment of a Global Gold Market Association could provide a more equitable solution, ensuring access to an exchange with vetted banks as liquidity providers.

如果預期的去美元化和黃金復甦成為現實，其他領域的需求將需要解決。全球黃金市場協會的建立可以提供更公平的解決方案，確保與經過審查的銀行作為流動性提供者進行交易。

Such a framework would promote democratic processes and regulations, reducing global volatility and fostering a fairer marketplace for nations of all economic statuses.

這樣的框架將促進民主進程和監管，減少全球波動，並為各種經濟地位的國家創造一個更公平的市場。

Gold's Enduring Relevance

黃金的持久相關性

Echoing the sentiments of Peter Schiff, a noted gold advocate, the fundamentals for gold have never been more compelling. Non-transitory inflation, massive deficit spending, questionable global economies, and a global shift towards de-dollarization create an environment conducive to gold's appreciation.

與著名黃金倡導者彼得希夫 (Peter Schiff) 的觀點相呼應，黃金的基本面從未如此引人注目。非暫時性通膨、巨額赤字支出、可疑的全球經濟以及全球去美元化的轉變創造了有利於黃金升值的環境。

Conclusion

結論

The de-dollarization trend and the soaring prices of gold and Bitcoin are interconnected phenomena that signal a profound shift in the global economic order. As the dollar's dominance wanes, nations and investors are seeking alternatives, recognizing the limitations of fiat currencies and the enduring value of gold. A return to a gold-backed standard is a concept that merits serious consideration as a potential antidote to the challenges facing the global economy today.

去美元化趨勢與黃金和比特幣價格飆升是相互關聯的現象，標誌著全球經濟秩序的深刻轉變。隨著美元主導地位的衰落，各國和投資者認識到法定貨幣的限制和黃金的持久價值，並尋求替代方案。回歸金本位制是一個值得認真考慮的概念，作為應對當今全球經濟面臨的挑戰的潛在解藥。