迫在眉睫的去美元化和黄金的崛起

在对通货膨胀和不确定的经济状况的担忧中，黄金和比特币价格的飙升引发了人们对去美元化和金本位制潜在回归概念的兴趣。各国央行增加购买黄金以及地缘政治变化，包括金砖国家+国家的去美元化努力，都表明美元主导地位的趋势正在减弱。随着法定货币走弱，投资者正在寻求黄金等避险资产，由于通货膨胀和经济脆弱性，黄金的基本面被视为强劲。支持者认为，黄金支持的经济可以减少波动性并创造一个更公平的市场。

The Impending De-dollarization and the Resurgence of Gold

即将到来的去美元化和黄金的复苏

In the ever-evolving global economic landscape, a paradigm shift is underway, characterized by the erosion of the dollar's dominance and the rise of a new era of de-dollarization. This dynamic has spurred a reassessment of the role of gold, a time-honored asset that has served as a store of value for centuries.

在不断变化的全球经济格局中，范式转变正在发生，其特点是美元主导地位的削弱和去美元化新时代的兴起。这种动态促使人们重新评估黄金的作用，黄金是一种历史悠久的资产，几个世纪以来一直充当着价值储存手段。

The Convergence of Gold and Bitcoin: A Symptom of Currency Turmoil

黄金和比特币的融合：货币动荡的征兆

Recent weeks have witnessed a surge in the prices of both gold and Bitcoin, a development that cannot be dismissed as mere coincidence. Both assets have benefited from the prevailing economic headwinds, including soaring inflation, market volatility, and elevated interest rates. Nevertheless, their simultaneous appreciation underscores investors' growing skepticism about the ability of the US and other Western economies to sustain high-interest rates given their astronomical debt burdens.

最近几周，黄金和比特币的价格都在飙升，这一发展不能仅仅被视为巧合。这两种资产都受益于当前的经济逆风，包括通胀飙升、市场波动和利率上升。然而，鉴于美国和其他西方经济体的天文债务负担，它们的同时升值凸显了投资者对美国和其他西方经济体维持高利率的能力日益怀疑。

The Underlying Factors Propelling Gold and Bitcoin

推动黄金和比特币发展的根本因素

Gold, a traditional haven asset, has responded favorably to the US Federal Reserve's increased economic growth forecasts, slightly higher inflation, and unanimous decision to maintain interest rates at a 23-year high of 5.25–5.5 percent. These factors have propelled gold prices to new highs of $2,364 an ounce, with further potential for growth driven by central banks' ongoing appetite for the precious metal.

黄金作为传统的避险资产，对美联储上调的经济增长预测、小幅上涨的通胀以及一致决定将利率维持在23年高点5.25-5.5%的反应良好。这些因素推动金价升至每盎司 2,364 美元的新高，央行对贵金属的持续需求推动了金价进一步增长的潜力。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin, hailed as a digital store of value, has reached record highs of $73,750 on March 14, fueled by buoyant investor sentiment and a surge in capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. The cryptocurrency is poised to continue its upward trajectory as it approaches its next "halving."

与此同时，在投资者情绪高涨和比特币 ETF 资本流入激增的推动下，被誉为数字价值储存手段的比特币在 3 月 14 日创下了 73,750 美元的历史新高。随着接近下一次“减半”，加密货币有望继续其上升趋势。

The Eroding Dominance of the US Dollar and the Call for Alternatives

美元主导地位的削弱和对替代品的呼声

Amidst the rally in safe-haven assets and the weakening of fiat currencies, a pertinent question arises: Are the record-breaking prices of gold and Bitcoin justified by the confluence of inflation and unsustainable debt? The answer lies in a profound skepticism towards the sustainability of high US interest rates and the potential long-term consequences of the nation's rapidly escalating debt.

在避险资产上涨和法定货币疲软的情况下，出现了一个相关问题：黄金和比特币破纪录的价格是否因通货膨胀和不可持续债务的共同作用而合理？答案在于对美国高利率的可持续性以及该国债务迅速升级的潜在长期后果的深刻怀疑。

The US national debt has been climbing at an alarming pace, reaching $34.4 trillion in February. This unprecedented accumulation of debt, exacerbated by the current administration's aggressive printing policies, has raised concerns about the potential for a sovereign default. While the likelihood of such an event remains uncertain, its repercussions could be cataclysmic, according to experts. Even a short-term breach could send shockwaves through global financial markets, prompting calls for viable alternatives to the US dollar.

美国国债一直在以惊人的速度攀升，2月份达到34.4万亿美元。现任政府激进的印钞政策加剧了前所未有的债务积累，引发了人们对主权违约可能性的担忧。专家表示，虽然此类事件发生的可能性仍不确定，但其影响可能是灾难性的。即使是短期的违约也可能会给全球金融市场带来冲击，促使人们呼吁寻找美元的可行替代品。

The Strategic Response: Central Banks De-dollarize

战略应对：央行去美元化

In a move that has largely escaped public notice, central banks have been accumulating physical gold at record volumes over the past two years. This trend reflects a shift in strategy as central banks seek to diversify their reserves and reduce their exposure to the dollar.

过去两年，各国央行一直在以创纪录的数量积累实物黄金，这一举措在很大程度上没有引起公众的注意。这一趋势反映了各国央行寻求外汇储备多元化并减少美元敞口的战略转变。

Russia's experience with being "frozen out" of USDs has served as a cautionary tale for other nations. Many countries have taken heed, recognizing the risks associated with relying heavily on the dollar. Others have reacted to the adverse effects of rising interest rates.

俄罗斯被美元“冻结”的经历对其他国家来说是一个警示。许多国家已经注意到了严重依赖美元带来的风险。其他人则对利率上升的不利影响做出了反应。

De-dollarization: A Global Phenomenon

去美元化：全球现象

The de-dollarization trend extends far beyond central banks. As highlighted by JPMorgan's August 2023 report, the US dollar's hegemony is "in question due to geopolitical and geostrategic shifts." Emerging markets and commodity producers are also exploring alternatives to the dollar.

去美元化趋势远远超出了央行的范围。正如摩根大通 2023 年 8 月的报告所强调的那样，美元的霸权“由于地缘政治和地缘战略的变化而受到质疑”。新兴市场和大宗商品生产国也在探索美元的替代品。

Several nations, including Bolivia, Brazil, and Argentina, have begun settling imports and exports using the Chinese renminbi. The Reserve Bank of India has requested Gulf exporters to accept rupees for a portion of their oil payments. Russia and the BRICS group are collaborating on a payment system based on blockchain and digital technologies.

玻利维亚、巴西和阿根廷等多个国家已开始使用人民币进行进出口结算。印度储备银行已要求海湾出口商接受卢比作为部分石油付款。俄罗斯和金砖国家正在合作开发基于区块链和数字技术的支付系统。

In the Middle East, the UAE and India have initiated a framework for bilateral transactions using local currencies. Symbolically, a UAE gold exporter recently invoiced an Indian buyer in Indian rupees for a gold sale.

在中东，阿联酋和印度启动了使用当地货币的双边交易框架。具有象征意义的是，一家阿联酋黄金出口商最近以印度卢比向一位印度买家开具了黄金销售发票。

Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Matter of Preference

比特币与黄金：偏好问题

While both Bitcoin and gold are perceived as haven assets, investors have varied preferences. Fergus Hodgson, director of Econ Americas, emphasizes gold's long history as a reliable store of value, while acknowledging the precariousness of Bitcoin's status due to its relative newcomer status in global markets.

虽然比特币和黄金都被视为避险资产，但投资者却有不同的偏好。 Econ Americas 总监弗格斯·霍奇森 (Fergus Hodgson) 强调黄金作为可靠的价值储存手段的悠久历史，同时也承认比特币由于其在全球市场上相对较新的地位而不稳定。

Nonetheless, Bitcoin's finite supply of 21 million coins theoretically insulates it from the manipulation that can plague fiat currencies. However, the same argument can be made for gold, with the caveat of undiscovered or recyclable reserves.

尽管如此，比特币 2100 万枚的有限供应从理论上来说可以使其免受困扰法定货币的操纵行为的影响。然而，同样的论点也适用于黄金，但需要注意未发现或可回收的储量。

Ultimately, investors must weigh the benefits and risks of both assets based on their individual circumstances and risk tolerances.

最终，投资者必须根据个人情况和风险承受能力权衡两种资产的收益和风险。

The Growing Influence of the BRICS+ Nations

金砖+国家影响力日益增强

A discernible trend suggests a transition away from the US dollar and towards a new collective powerhouse in the form of the BRICS+ nations. China and Russia, the top two gold producers globally, are joined by four of the largest gold consumers in this alliance. The balance of power appears to be shifting eastwards, with the trading bloc gravitating towards a gold-backed standard.

一个明显的趋势表明，人们正在从美元转向金砖五国+国家形式的新集体强国。全球最大的两个黄金生产国中国和俄罗斯，以及四个最大的黄金消费国也加入了这个联盟。权力平衡似乎正在东移，贸易集团倾向于金本位制。

Reviving the Gold Standard: A Potential Solution

恢复金本位制：一个潜在的解决方案

As the global economy navigates this turbulent period, a reassessment of the gold standard is warranted. Its proponents argue that gold's inherent scarcity and immutability make it an ideal basis for international exchange, potentially mitigating the risks associated with fiat currencies.

随着全球经济经历这一动荡时期，有必要重新评估金本位。其支持者认为，黄金固有的稀缺性和不变性使其成为国际交易的理想基础，有可能减轻与法定货币相关的风险。

A Globally Inclusive Future

全球包容的未来

If the projected de-dollarization and resurgence of gold materialize, other areas of demand will need to be addressed. The establishment of a Global Gold Market Association could provide a more equitable solution, ensuring access to an exchange with vetted banks as liquidity providers.

如果预期的去美元化和黄金复苏成为现实，其他领域的需求将需要得到解决。全球黄金市场协会的建立可以提供更公平的解决方案，确保与经过审查的银行作为流动性提供者进行交易。

Such a framework would promote democratic processes and regulations, reducing global volatility and fostering a fairer marketplace for nations of all economic statuses.

这样的框架将促进民主进程和监管，减少全球波动，并为各种经济地位的国家创造一个更公平的市场。

Gold's Enduring Relevance

黄金的持久相关性

Echoing the sentiments of Peter Schiff, a noted gold advocate, the fundamentals for gold have never been more compelling. Non-transitory inflation, massive deficit spending, questionable global economies, and a global shift towards de-dollarization create an environment conducive to gold's appreciation.

与著名黄金倡导者彼得·希夫 (Peter Schiff) 的观点相呼应，黄金的基本面从未如此引人注目。非暂时性通胀、巨额赤字支出、可疑的全球经济以及全球去美元化的转变创造了有利于黄金升值的环境。

Conclusion

结论

The de-dollarization trend and the soaring prices of gold and Bitcoin are interconnected phenomena that signal a profound shift in the global economic order. As the dollar's dominance wanes, nations and investors are seeking alternatives, recognizing the limitations of fiat currencies and the enduring value of gold. A return to a gold-backed standard is a concept that merits serious consideration as a potential antidote to the challenges facing the global economy today.

去美元化趋势与黄金和比特币价格飙升是相互关联的现象，标志着全球经济秩序的深刻转变。随着美元主导地位的衰落，各国和投资者认识到法定货币的局限性和黄金的持久价值，正在寻求替代方案。回归金本位制是一个值得认真考虑的概念，作为应对当今全球经济面临的挑战的潜在解药。