鑰匙筆記比特幣（BTC）被嚴重低估了，承諾拋物線價格轉移

比特幣（BTC）目前的交易約為84,000美元，比其歷史最高額為109,114美元低約23％，在2025年1月實現。這種糾正促使人們猜測加密貨幣市場可能會滑入熊階段。但是，經驗豐富的分析師指出了鏈界指標，這些指標暗示了另外的指標。

Key Notes

關鍵說明

Bitcoin BTC $83 992 24h volatility: 2.4% Market cap: $1.66 T Vol. 24h: $25.69 B is currently trading around $84,000, around 23% below its all-time high of $109,114, reached in January 2025. This correction has sparked speculation that the crypto market may be slipping into a bear phase. However, seasoned analysts have pointed to on-chain metrics that suggest otherwise.

比特幣BTC $ 83 992 24H波動率：2.4％的市值：$ 1.66 T卷。 24小時：$ 25.69 B目前的交易約為84,000美元，比其歷史最高售價低約109,114美元，在2025年1月達到了23％。這種更正引發了人們的猜測，即加密貨幣市場可能會滑入熊階段。但是，經驗豐富的分析師已經指出，鏈度指標暗示了其他指標。

The bearish sentiment was fueled recently by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who claimed on X that the Bitcoin bull cycle might be over. He predicted 6-12 months of sideways or bearish price action, citing a lack of fresh liquidity and increased whale selling.

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju最近發動了看跌的情緒，他在X上聲稱比特幣牛週期可能已經結束。他預測缺乏新鮮流動性和增加鯨魚銷售的側面或看跌價格行動。

However, in the latest X post, Ju clarified that he did not foresee a major crash but rather an extended consolidation period.

但是，在最新的X帖子中，Ju澄清說他沒有預見一次重大撞車事故，而是一個延長的合併期。

Let me respond to a few counterarguments:1/ Retail hasn't entered the market yet based on on-chain metricsRetail is likely entering through ETFs — the paper Bitcoin layer — which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realised cap lower than if the funds were flowing…According to CryptoQuant founder, new liquidity channels and reduced contagion risks make a -70% drop unlikely. Instead, he expects a wide-range sideways movement, presenting both shorting and buying opportunities.

讓我回應一些反駁：1/零售業尚未進入市場，但基於鏈度指標的零售可能正在通過ETF（紙比特幣層）進入市場，這並未顯示在鏈上。這使已實現的上限要比資金流動的限額低……根據加密量的創始人，新的流動性渠道和降低的傳染風險，使得-70％的下降不可能。取而代之的是，他預計橫向運動的側面運動，既有短路和購買機會。

Ju also argued that many retail investors are investing in Bitcoin ETFs, which doesn’t get fully covered by on-chain metrics.

JU還認為，許多零售投資者都在投資比特幣ETF，這不會完全被鏈指標覆蓋。

Around 80% of spot ETF inflows are reportedly retail-driven. Ju suggested that once macroeconomic conditions improve, such as interest rate cuts, fresh liquidity could trigger a new buying wave.

據報導，大約80％的現場ETF流入是零售驅動的。 JU建議，一旦宏觀經濟狀況有所改善，例如降低利率，新鮮流動性可能會引發新的購買浪潮。

Bitcoin Severely Undervalued

比特幣被嚴重低估

Popular crypto analyst Merlijn has an even more bullish outlook. He recently stated that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued.

受歡迎的加密分析師Merlijn具有更為看好的前景。他最近說，比特幣被大大低估。

According to him, based on previous cycles, BTC should be trading around $250,000 at this stage. This implies that the largest price surge could still be ahead.

據他說，根據以前的周期，BTC在此階段應交易約25萬美元。這意味著最大的價格上漲仍然可以領先。

IS SEVERELY UNDERVALUED!The 4th halving growth trajectory is way below historical norms.Previous cycles show that $BTC should be around $250,000 at this stage.Is the biggest pump yet to come?

被嚴重低估了！第四次減少增長軌跡遠低於歷史規範。預防的周期表明，在此階段，$ BTC應該約為25萬美元。這是迄今為止最大的泵？

In a separate X post, Merlijn noted that BTC recently bounced off the 50-week Exponential Moving Average with a perfect bullish cross on the Stochastic RSI. Historically, such patterns led to parabolic price moves.

Merlijn在單獨的X帖子中指出，BTC最近以隨機RSI的完美看漲十字架從50週的指數移動平均線中反彈。從歷史上看，這種模式導致了拋物線價格轉移。

$BTC just bounced off the 50 EMA with a perfect bullish cross on the Stoch RSI!Historically, this has triggered MASSIVE parabolic moves.Don’t miss it!

$ btc剛剛在50 EMA上彈起了50個EMA，在Stoch RSI上完美的看漲十字架！從歷史上看，這引發了巨大的拋物線動作。不要錯過它！

On the daily BTC price chart, Bitcoin is trading near the middle Bollinger Band (20-day SMA) around $85,061, suggesting a phase of consolidation. The upper and lower bands are slightly expanding, which could result in an increased volatility. A break above $92,155 (upper band) could signal a bullish breakout.

在每日BTC價格圖表上，比特幣在中間佈林樂隊（20天SMA）附近進行交易，約為85,061美元，這表明是合併的階段。上和下帶略有擴展，這可能導致揮發性增加。超過$ 92,155（上樂隊）的突破可能標誌著看漲的突破。

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45.6, indicating neutral momentum but nearing oversold territory. A further drop in RSI could signal a buying opportunity.

同時，14天的相對強度指數（RSI）為45.6，表明中性動量，但接近超賣領土。 RSI的進一步下降可能標誌著購買機會。

Despite the long-term bullish optimism, analysts predict potential pullback in the short-term. Technical analyst Aksel Kibar recently warned of a BTC price drop to $73,700, a key support level.

儘管有長期的看漲樂觀情緒，但分析師可以預測短期的潛在回調。技術分析師Aksel Kibar最近警告說，BTC價格下跌至73,700美元，這是一個關鍵支持水平。

Long term chart on $BTCUSD. Still looks like a pullback to the broken 73.7K. What follows from here will decide on the following several month's price action.

$ btcusd上的長期圖表。仍然看起來像是折斷的73.7k。從這裡開始的情況將決定以下幾個月的價格行動。

He suggested that Bitcoin’s reaction at this level will be crucial in determining its trajectory for the next few months.

他建議比特幣在此水平上的反應對於確定未來幾個月的軌跡至關重要。

A crypto journalist with over 5 years of experience in the industry, Parth has worked with major media outlets in the crypto and finance world, where he covered macroeconomic analysis, crypto news, and covered various events like Blockchains Week in Paris, Singapore Fintech Festival, and more. Surviving a bear and bull market in his journey, Parth is also an author of 4 self-published books.

Parth是一位在該行業擁有超過5年經驗的加密記者，與加密貨幣和金融世界的主要媒體合作，在那裡他介紹了宏觀經濟分析，加密新聞，並涵蓋了諸如巴黎，新加坡Fintech Festival的Blockchains Week等各種活動。帕斯（Parth）在旅途中倖存下來，也是四本自出版書籍的作者。

Parth Dubey on LinkedIn

Parth Dubey在LinkedIn上