Key Notes Bitcoin (BTC) Is Severely Undervalued, Promises a Parabolic Price Move by Parth Dubey

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $84,000, around 23% below its all-time high of $109,114, achieved in January 2025. This correction has fueled speculation that the crypto market may be slipping into a bear phase. However, seasoned analysts have pointed on-chain metrics that suggest otherwise.

Key Notes

Bitcoin BTC $83 992 24h volatility: 2.4% Market cap: $1.66 T Vol. 24h: $25.69 B is currently trading around $84,000, around 23% below its all-time high of $109,114, reached in January 2025. This correction has sparked speculation that the crypto market may be slipping into a bear phase. However, seasoned analysts have pointed to on-chain metrics that suggest otherwise.

The bearish sentiment was fueled recently by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who claimed on X that the Bitcoin bull cycle might be over. He predicted 6-12 months of sideways or bearish price action, citing a lack of fresh liquidity and increased whale selling.

However, in the latest X post, Ju clarified that he did not foresee a major crash but rather an extended consolidation period.

Let me respond to a few counterarguments:1/ Retail hasn't entered the market yet based on on-chain metricsRetail is likely entering through ETFs — the paper Bitcoin layer — which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realised cap lower than if the funds were flowing…According to CryptoQuant founder, new liquidity channels and reduced contagion risks make a -70% drop unlikely. Instead, he expects a wide-range sideways movement, presenting both shorting and buying opportunities.

Ju also argued that many retail investors are investing in Bitcoin ETFs, which doesn’t get fully covered by on-chain metrics.

Around 80% of spot ETF inflows are reportedly retail-driven. Ju suggested that once macroeconomic conditions improve, such as interest rate cuts, fresh liquidity could trigger a new buying wave.

Bitcoin Severely Undervalued

Popular crypto analyst Merlijn has an even more bullish outlook. He recently stated that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued.

According to him, based on previous cycles, BTC should be trading around $250,000 at this stage. This implies that the largest price surge could still be ahead.

IS SEVERELY UNDERVALUED!The 4th halving growth trajectory is way below historical norms.Previous cycles show that $BTC should be around $250,000 at this stage.Is the biggest pump yet to come?

In a separate X post, Merlijn noted that BTC recently bounced off the 50-week Exponential Moving Average with a perfect bullish cross on the Stochastic RSI. Historically, such patterns led to parabolic price moves.

$BTC just bounced off the 50 EMA with a perfect bullish cross on the Stoch RSI!Historically, this has triggered MASSIVE parabolic moves.Don’t miss it!

On the daily BTC price chart, Bitcoin is trading near the middle Bollinger Band (20-day SMA) around $85,061, suggesting a phase of consolidation. The upper and lower bands are slightly expanding, which could result in an increased volatility. A break above $92,155 (upper band) could signal a bullish breakout.

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45.6, indicating neutral momentum but nearing oversold territory. A further drop in RSI could signal a buying opportunity.

Despite the long-term bullish optimism, analysts predict potential pullback in the short-term. Technical analyst Aksel Kibar recently warned of a BTC price drop to $73,700, a key support level.

Long term chart on $BTCUSD. Still looks like a pullback to the broken 73.7K. What follows from here will decide on the following several month's price action.

He suggested that Bitcoin’s reaction at this level will be crucial in determining its trajectory for the next few months.

A crypto journalist with over 5 years of experience in the industry, Parth has worked with major media outlets in the crypto and finance world, where he covered macroeconomic analysis, crypto news, and covered various events like Blockchains Week in Paris, Singapore Fintech Festival, and more. Surviving a bear and bull market in his journey, Parth is also an author of 4 self-published books.

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