钥匙笔记比特币（BTC）被严重低估了，承诺抛物线价格转移

比特币（BTC）目前的交易约为84,000美元，比其历史最高额为109,114美元低约23％，在2025年1月实现。这种纠正促使人们猜测加密货币市场可能会滑入熊阶段。但是，经验丰富的分析师指出了链界指标，这些指标暗示了另外的指标。

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关键说明

Bitcoin BTC $83 992 24h volatility: 2.4% Market cap: $1.66 T Vol. 24h: $25.69 B is currently trading around $84,000, around 23% below its all-time high of $109,114, reached in January 2025. This correction has sparked speculation that the crypto market may be slipping into a bear phase. However, seasoned analysts have pointed to on-chain metrics that suggest otherwise.

比特币BTC $ 83 992 24H波动率：2.4％的市值：$ 1.66 T卷。 24小时：$ 25.69 B目前的交易约为84,000美元，比其历史最高售价低约109,114美元，在2025年1月达到了23％。这种更正引发了人们的猜测，即加密货币市场可能会滑入熊阶段。但是，经验丰富的分析师已经指出，链度指标暗示了其他指标。

The bearish sentiment was fueled recently by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who claimed on X that the Bitcoin bull cycle might be over. He predicted 6-12 months of sideways or bearish price action, citing a lack of fresh liquidity and increased whale selling.

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju最近发动了看跌的情绪，他在X上声称比特币牛周期可能已经结束。他预测缺乏新鲜流动性和增加鲸鱼销售的侧面或看跌价格行动。

However, in the latest X post, Ju clarified that he did not foresee a major crash but rather an extended consolidation period.

但是，在最新的X帖子中，Ju澄清说他没有预见一次重大撞车事故，而是一个延长的合并期。

Let me respond to a few counterarguments:1/ Retail hasn't entered the market yet based on on-chain metricsRetail is likely entering through ETFs — the paper Bitcoin layer — which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realised cap lower than if the funds were flowing…According to CryptoQuant founder, new liquidity channels and reduced contagion risks make a -70% drop unlikely. Instead, he expects a wide-range sideways movement, presenting both shorting and buying opportunities.

让我回应一些反驳：1/零售业尚未进入市场，但基于链度指标的零售可能正在通过ETF（纸比特币层）进入市场，这并未显示在链上。这使已实现的上限要比资金流动的限额低……根据加密量的创始人，新的流动性渠道和降低的传染风险，使得-70％的下降不可能。取而代之的是，他预计横向运动的侧面运动，既有短路和购买机会。

Ju also argued that many retail investors are investing in Bitcoin ETFs, which doesn’t get fully covered by on-chain metrics.

JU还认为，许多零售投资者都在投资比特币ETF，这不会完全被链指标覆盖。

Around 80% of spot ETF inflows are reportedly retail-driven. Ju suggested that once macroeconomic conditions improve, such as interest rate cuts, fresh liquidity could trigger a new buying wave.

据报道，大约80％的现场ETF流入是零售驱动的。 JU建议，一旦宏观经济状况有所改善，例如降低利率，新鲜流动性可能会引发新的购买浪潮。

Bitcoin Severely Undervalued

比特币被严重低估

Popular crypto analyst Merlijn has an even more bullish outlook. He recently stated that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued.

受欢迎的加密分析师Merlijn具有更为看好的前景。他最近说，比特币被大大低估。

According to him, based on previous cycles, BTC should be trading around $250,000 at this stage. This implies that the largest price surge could still be ahead.

据他说，根据以前的周期，BTC在此阶段应交易约25万美元。这意味着最大的价格上涨仍然可以领先。

IS SEVERELY UNDERVALUED!The 4th halving growth trajectory is way below historical norms.Previous cycles show that $BTC should be around $250,000 at this stage.Is the biggest pump yet to come?

被严重低估了！第四次减少增长轨迹远低于历史规范。预防的周期表明，在此阶段，$ BTC应该约为25万美元。这是迄今为止最大的泵？

In a separate X post, Merlijn noted that BTC recently bounced off the 50-week Exponential Moving Average with a perfect bullish cross on the Stochastic RSI. Historically, such patterns led to parabolic price moves.

Merlijn在单独的X帖子中指出，BTC最近以随机RSI的完美看涨十字架从50周的指数移动平均线中反弹。从历史上看，这种模式导致了抛物线价格转移。

$BTC just bounced off the 50 EMA with a perfect bullish cross on the Stoch RSI!Historically, this has triggered MASSIVE parabolic moves.Don’t miss it!

$ btc刚刚在50 EMA上弹起了50个EMA，在Stoch RSI上完美的看涨十字架！从历史上看，这引发了巨大的抛物线动作。不要错过它！

On the daily BTC price chart, Bitcoin is trading near the middle Bollinger Band (20-day SMA) around $85,061, suggesting a phase of consolidation. The upper and lower bands are slightly expanding, which could result in an increased volatility. A break above $92,155 (upper band) could signal a bullish breakout.

在每日BTC价格图表上，比特币在中间布林乐队（20天SMA）附近进行交易，约为85,061美元，这表明是合并的阶段。上和下带略有扩展，这可能导致挥发性增加。超过$ 92,155（上乐队）的突破可能标志着看涨的突破。

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45.6, indicating neutral momentum but nearing oversold territory. A further drop in RSI could signal a buying opportunity.

同时，14天的相对强度指数（RSI）为45.6，表明中性动量，但接近超卖领土。 RSI的进一步下降可能标志着购买机会。

Despite the long-term bullish optimism, analysts predict potential pullback in the short-term. Technical analyst Aksel Kibar recently warned of a BTC price drop to $73,700, a key support level.

尽管有长期的看涨乐观情绪，但分析师可以预测短期的潜在回调。技术分析师Aksel Kibar最近警告说，BTC价格下跌至73,700美元，这是一个关键支持水平。

Long term chart on $BTCUSD. Still looks like a pullback to the broken 73.7K. What follows from here will decide on the following several month's price action.

$ btcusd上的长期图表。仍然看起来像是折断的73.7k。从这里开始的情况将决定以下几个月的价格行动。

He suggested that Bitcoin’s reaction at this level will be crucial in determining its trajectory for the next few months.

他建议比特币在此水平上的反应对于确定未来几个月的轨迹至关重要。

A crypto journalist with over 5 years of experience in the industry, Parth has worked with major media outlets in the crypto and finance world, where he covered macroeconomic analysis, crypto news, and covered various events like Blockchains Week in Paris, Singapore Fintech Festival, and more. Surviving a bear and bull market in his journey, Parth is also an author of 4 self-published books.

Parth是一位在该行业拥有超过5年经验的加密记者，与加密货币和金融世界的主要媒体合作，在那里他介绍了宏观经济分析，加密新闻，并涵盖了诸如巴黎，新加坡Fintech Festival的Blockchains Week等各种活动。帕斯（Parth）在旅途中幸存下来，也是四本自出版书籍的作者。

Parth Dubey on LinkedIn

Parth Dubey在LinkedIn上