為什麼Kaspa礦工投降可能會標誌著KAS價格的底部

卡巴·普萊斯（Kaspa Price）今天抽出8％，在更廣泛的加密貨幣市場回收中損失了0.080美元，這主要是由Ripple的首席執行官拋棄的大新聞。

The Kaspa price today pumped 8% and broke past $0.080 during a broader crypto market recovery that was fueled mainly by big news dropped by Ripple’s CEO—claiming that the SEC finally dropped the XRP lawsuit.

今天的Kaspa價格在更廣泛的加密貨幣市場恢復中抽出了8％，並損失了0.080美元，這主要是由Ripple的首席執行官拋棄的大新聞所推動的，這是SEC最終撤銷了XRP訴訟。

However, the Kaspa community could be interested in a thread posted by X (Twitter) user ‘Kaspa Report’ who has been following KAS in detail in recent weeks.

但是，Kaspa社區可能對X（Twitter）用戶“ Kaspa Report”發布的線程感興趣，後者最近幾周詳細介紹了KAS。

Miner Capitulation Phase Explained

礦工投降階段解釋了

The post covered the topic of miner capitulation, explaining that the network is currently experiencing this phase as the fee revenue paid to Kaspa miners has fallen to the lowest level in six months.

該帖子涵蓋了礦工投降的話題，並解釋說，該網絡目前正在經歷此階段，因為支付給Kaspa礦工的費用已在六個月內降至最低水平。

Miners are currently facing a triple challenge—the price has dropped over 60% from its all-time high, daily fees have plunged over 99.9% since their peak, and block rewards have fallen by roughly 33% since mid-2024. This combination of factors has left many miners frustrated and unprofitable.

礦工目前正面臨三重挑戰 - 自達到頂峰以來，其價格已從其歷史最高的高度，每日費用下降了60％以上，自2024年中以來，Block Rewards下降了約33％。這種因素的結合使許多礦工感到沮喪和無利可圖。

As a result, the network is experiencing widespread miner capitulation.

結果，該網絡正在經歷廣泛的礦工投降。

This is signaled by the decline in hashrate, which has seen a roughly 25% decline since reaching its all-time high of 1.59 EH/s several months ago and is likely to decline further as mining remains largely unprofitable for most miners at the current price.

這是由於哈希酸鹽的下降表明，這一數字自幾個月前的歷史最高水平達到1.59 EH/s以來的下降大約25％，並且由於大多數礦工在當前價格上仍然無利可圖，因此可能會進一步下降。

Despite this seemingly negative trend, there’s a silver lining: widespread miner capitulation is generally considered a reliable market bottom signal in cryptocurrency markets.

儘管存在這種看似消極的趨勢，但仍有一線希望：普遍的礦工投降通常被認為是加密貨幣市場中可靠的市場底部信號。

How Miner Capitulation Affects Supply and Demand

礦工投降如何影響供求

When emissions decline and fees decrease, miners’ income drops sharply, causing many to stop. While this might appear to threaten network security, it simultaneously reduces the supply of Kaspa that miners sell, increasing marketplace scarcity.

當排放量下降並減少費用時，礦工的收入急劇下降，導致許多人停止。儘管這似乎威脅到網絡安全，但同時減少了礦工出售的Kaspa的供應，從而增加了市場稀缺。

During the KRC-20 minting and trading frenzy in October 2024, miners earned 24,500,000 KAS in fees, flooding the market. Now, they’re receiving just 5,660 KAS in fees daily, representing over a 99.9% decline from the peak.

在2024年10月的KRC-20鑄造和貿易瘋狂期間，礦工的費用為24,500,000 kas，淹沒了市場。現在，他們每天只收到5,660 KAS的費用，比峰值下降了99.9％。

Additionally, in mid-2024, miners were receiving about 8.6 million KAS in coinbase rewards per day, whereas today they’re receiving less than 5.5 million KAS daily, a decline of more than one-third.

此外，在2024年中期，礦工每天獲得約860萬KAS的Coinbase獎勵，而今天他們每天收到的KAS不到550萬，下降了三分之一以上。

This substantial reduction means miners are bringing much less KAS to the market, thereby decreasing supply. Although miners don’t usually sell all their KAS, this reduction showcases the massive impact that declining fees and emissions can have on sell-side flows.

這種大幅減少意味著礦工將KAS帶入市場，從而減少供應。儘管礦工通常不會出售其所有KAS，但這種減少表明了費用和排放量可能會對賣方流量產生的巨大影響。

The more constrained marketplace supply becomes, the higher the likelihood of a supply shock and corresponding short squeeze, especially since Wallet #2 is accumulating KAS nearly as quickly as new supply enters the market.

市場供應量越多，供應衝擊和相應短暫擠壓的可能性就越高，尤其是因為錢包＃2累積了KAS幾乎與新供應進入市場一樣快。

Miner capitulation can ironically boost demand as well. Miners who mine KAS for long-term accumulation may stop mining to buy it on the open market for less than the mining cost, converting themselves from suppliers to buyers.

礦工投降也可以諷刺地提高需求。為長期積累開採KA的礦工可能會停止採礦以低於採礦成本在公開市場上購買，從而將自己從供應商轉變為買家。

Additionally, miners who don’t capitulate gain pricing power as fewer miners supply the market.

此外，隨著礦工的供應較少，不投降定價能力的礦工提供市場。

With decreasing supply and potentially increasing demand, prices usually begin to rise, which is why miner capitulation often signals a cyclical market bottom. It indicates that the positive feedback loops that decrease price are beginning to reverse, and the same feedback mechanisms will soon begin driving price higher.

隨著供應量的減少和需求的增加，價格通常開始上漲，這就是為什麼礦工投降通常標誌著周期性市場底層的原因。這表明降低價格的正反饋循環開始逆轉，並且相同的反饋機制將很快開始提高價格。

This dynamic reveals that Kaspa functions somewhat like an “energy stablecoin.” When the cost of energy needed to mine KAS exceeds its market price, miners stop, reducing the network’s hashrate and energy use. Some former miners then accumulate by buying KAS on the open market, increasing demand and raising its price. Through this rational economic behavior, miners help maintain an equilibrium between Kaspa’s market price and its production costs.

這種動態表明，卡巴的功能有點像“能量穩定”。當開採Kas所需的能源成本超過其市場價格時，礦工會停止，從而減少網絡的哈希酸鹽和能源使用。然後，一些前礦工通過在公開市場上購買KA，增加需求並提高價格來積累。通過這種合理的經濟行為，礦工幫助保持卡巴的市場價格與其生產成本之間的均衡。

Both operating expenses (including energy costs) and capital expenditures reflect energy costs in mining. Miners who can’t profit will stop mining. This drives down the total hashrate. With fewer miners competing, those who remain have a better chance of earning rewards. Eventually, the cost to mine Kaspa will match what people are willing to pay for it in the market. This natural balance explains why, over time, we often see both hashrate and price moving in similar patterns for cryptocurrencies like Kaspa and Bitcoin that have limited supply.

運營費用（包括能源成本）和資本支出都反映了採礦的能源成本。無法獲利的礦工將停止採礦。這驅動了總哈希。隨著礦工的競爭減少，那些仍然有更好的機會獲得獎勵的人。最終，開採卡巴的成本將與人們願意在市場上付出的價格相匹配。這種自然的平衡解釋了為什麼隨著時間的流逝，我們經常看到哈希酸鹽和價格都以相似的模式移動，例如供應有限的卡巴斯和比特幣等加密貨幣。

Although factors like price manipulation can temporarily disrupt this equilibrium, the efficient market will eventually prevail, and Kaspa’s price will tend to revert to its mining cost. Price manipulators effectively receive a subsidy from miners by accumulating Kaspa at low prices, which ultimately causes miners to stop operating until price and hashrate equilibrate again.

儘管諸如價格操縱之類的因素會暫時破壞這種均衡，但有效的市場最終將佔上風，而Kaspa的價格往往會恢復到其採礦成本。價格操縱者通過低價積累Kaspa來有效地從礦工那裡獲得補貼，這最終導致礦工停止運營直到價格並再次均衡。

While it’s difficult to predict exactly when miner capitulation will end and when the supply shock will hit, both will eventually happen according to market dynamics. When they do, prices typically rise significantly, attracting new miners and restarting the cycle.

儘管很難準確預測礦工投降何時會結束，並且何時會發生供應衝擊，但兩者最終都會根據市場動態進行。當他們這樣做時，價格通常會顯著上漲，吸引新礦工並重新啟動週期。