为什么Kaspa矿工投降可能会标志着KAS价格的底部

卡巴·普莱斯（Kaspa Price）今天抽出8％，在更广泛的加密货币市场回收中损失了0.080美元，这主要是由Ripple的首席执行官抛弃的大新闻。

The Kaspa price today pumped 8% and broke past $0.080 during a broader crypto market recovery that was fueled mainly by big news dropped by Ripple’s CEO—claiming that the SEC finally dropped the XRP lawsuit.

今天的Kaspa价格在更广泛的加密货币市场恢复中抽出了8％，并损失了0.080美元，这主要是由Ripple的首席执行官抛弃的大新闻所推动的，这是SEC最终撤销了XRP诉讼。

However, the Kaspa community could be interested in a thread posted by X (Twitter) user ‘Kaspa Report’ who has been following KAS in detail in recent weeks.

但是，Kaspa社区可能对X（Twitter）用户“ Kaspa Report”发布的线程感兴趣，后者最近几周详细介绍了KAS。

Miner Capitulation Phase Explained

矿工投降阶段解释了

The post covered the topic of miner capitulation, explaining that the network is currently experiencing this phase as the fee revenue paid to Kaspa miners has fallen to the lowest level in six months.

该帖子涵盖了矿工投降的话题，并解释说，该网络目前正在经历此阶段，因为支付给Kaspa矿工的费用已在六个月内降至最低水平。

Miners are currently facing a triple challenge—the price has dropped over 60% from its all-time high, daily fees have plunged over 99.9% since their peak, and block rewards have fallen by roughly 33% since mid-2024. This combination of factors has left many miners frustrated and unprofitable.

矿工目前正面临三重挑战 - 自达到顶峰以来，其价格已从其历史最高的高度，每日费用下降了60％以上，自2024年中以来，Block Rewards下降了约33％。这种因素的结合使许多矿工感到沮丧和无利可图。

As a result, the network is experiencing widespread miner capitulation.

结果，该网络正在经历广泛的矿工投降。

This is signaled by the decline in hashrate, which has seen a roughly 25% decline since reaching its all-time high of 1.59 EH/s several months ago and is likely to decline further as mining remains largely unprofitable for most miners at the current price.

这是由于哈希酸盐的下降表明，这一数字自几个月前的历史最高水平达到1.59 EH/s以来的下降大约25％，并且由于大多数矿工在当前价格上仍然无利可图，因此可能会进一步下降。

Despite this seemingly negative trend, there’s a silver lining: widespread miner capitulation is generally considered a reliable market bottom signal in cryptocurrency markets.

尽管存在这种看似消极的趋势，但仍有一线希望：普遍的矿工投降通常被认为是加密货币市场中可靠的市场底部信号。

How Miner Capitulation Affects Supply and Demand

矿工投降如何影响供求

When emissions decline and fees decrease, miners’ income drops sharply, causing many to stop. While this might appear to threaten network security, it simultaneously reduces the supply of Kaspa that miners sell, increasing marketplace scarcity.

当排放量下降并减少费用时，矿工的收入急剧下降，导致许多人停止。尽管这似乎威胁到网络安全，但同时减少了矿工出售的Kaspa的供应，从而增加了市场稀缺。

During the KRC-20 minting and trading frenzy in October 2024, miners earned 24,500,000 KAS in fees, flooding the market. Now, they’re receiving just 5,660 KAS in fees daily, representing over a 99.9% decline from the peak.

在2024年10月的KRC-20铸造和贸易疯狂期间，矿工的费用为24,500,000 kas，淹没了市场。现在，他们每天只收到5,660 KAS的费用，比峰值下降了99.9％。

Additionally, in mid-2024, miners were receiving about 8.6 million KAS in coinbase rewards per day, whereas today they’re receiving less than 5.5 million KAS daily, a decline of more than one-third.

此外，在2024年中期，矿工每天获得约860万KAS的Coinbase奖励，而今天他们每天收到的KAS不到550万，下降了三分之一以上。

This substantial reduction means miners are bringing much less KAS to the market, thereby decreasing supply. Although miners don’t usually sell all their KAS, this reduction showcases the massive impact that declining fees and emissions can have on sell-side flows.

这种大幅减少意味着矿工将KAS带入市场，从而减少供应。尽管矿工通常不会出售其所有KAS，但这种减少表明了费用和排放量可能会对卖方流量产生的巨大影响。

The more constrained marketplace supply becomes, the higher the likelihood of a supply shock and corresponding short squeeze, especially since Wallet #2 is accumulating KAS nearly as quickly as new supply enters the market.

市场供应量越多，供应冲击和相应短暂挤压的可能性就越高，尤其是因为钱包＃2累积了KAS几乎与新供应进入市场一样快。

Miner capitulation can ironically boost demand as well. Miners who mine KAS for long-term accumulation may stop mining to buy it on the open market for less than the mining cost, converting themselves from suppliers to buyers.

矿工投降也可以讽刺地提高需求。为长期积累开采KA的矿工可能会停止采矿以低于采矿成本在公开市场上购买，从而将自己从供应商转变为买家。

Additionally, miners who don’t capitulate gain pricing power as fewer miners supply the market.

此外，随着矿工的供应较少，不投降定价能力的矿工提供市场。

With decreasing supply and potentially increasing demand, prices usually begin to rise, which is why miner capitulation often signals a cyclical market bottom. It indicates that the positive feedback loops that decrease price are beginning to reverse, and the same feedback mechanisms will soon begin driving price higher.

随着供应量的减少和需求的增加，价格通常开始上涨，这就是为什么矿工投降通常标志着周期性市场底层的原因。这表明降低价格的正反馈循环开始逆转，并且相同的反馈机制将很快开始提高价格。

This dynamic reveals that Kaspa functions somewhat like an “energy stablecoin.” When the cost of energy needed to mine KAS exceeds its market price, miners stop, reducing the network’s hashrate and energy use. Some former miners then accumulate by buying KAS on the open market, increasing demand and raising its price. Through this rational economic behavior, miners help maintain an equilibrium between Kaspa’s market price and its production costs.

这种动态表明，卡巴的功能有点像“能量稳定”。当开采Kas所需的能源成本超过其市场价格时，矿工会停止，从而减少网络的哈希酸盐和能源使用。然后，一些前矿工通过在公开市场上购买KA，增加需求并提高价格来积累。通过这种合理的经济行为，矿工帮助保持卡巴的市场价格与其生产成本之间的均衡。

Both operating expenses (including energy costs) and capital expenditures reflect energy costs in mining. Miners who can’t profit will stop mining. This drives down the total hashrate. With fewer miners competing, those who remain have a better chance of earning rewards. Eventually, the cost to mine Kaspa will match what people are willing to pay for it in the market. This natural balance explains why, over time, we often see both hashrate and price moving in similar patterns for cryptocurrencies like Kaspa and Bitcoin that have limited supply.

运营费用（包括能源成本）和资本支出都反映了采矿的能源成本。无法获利的矿工将停止采矿。这驱动了总哈希。随着矿工的竞争减少，那些仍然有更好的机会获得奖励的人。最终，开采卡巴的成本将与人们愿意在市场上付出的价格相匹配。这种自然的平衡解释了为什么随着时间的流逝，我们经常看到哈希酸盐和价格都以相似的模式移动，例如供应有限的卡巴斯和比特币等加密货币。

Although factors like price manipulation can temporarily disrupt this equilibrium, the efficient market will eventually prevail, and Kaspa’s price will tend to revert to its mining cost. Price manipulators effectively receive a subsidy from miners by accumulating Kaspa at low prices, which ultimately causes miners to stop operating until price and hashrate equilibrate again.

尽管诸如价格操纵之类的因素会暂时破坏这种均衡，但有效的市场最终将占上风，而Kaspa的价格往往会恢复到其采矿成本。价格操纵者通过低价积累Kaspa来有效地从矿工那里获得补贴，这最终导致矿工停止运营直到价格并再次均衡。

While it’s difficult to predict exactly when miner capitulation will end and when the supply shock will hit, both will eventually happen according to market dynamics. When they do, prices typically rise significantly, attracting new miners and restarting the cycle.

尽管很难准确预测矿工投降何时会结束，并且何时会发生供应冲击，但两者最终都会根据市场动态进行。当他们这样做时，价格通常会显着上涨，吸引新矿工并重新启动周期。