摩根大通警告全球衰退的60％風險

摩根大通（JPMorgan）修訂了2025年的經濟預測，由於特朗普政府對新的關稅，將全球衰退的可能性增加到60％。

output: Economic calamities continue to loom large as JPMorgan has revised its economic forecasts for 2025, raising the likelihood of a global recession to 60% with the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

產出：由於摩根大通（JPMorgan）修訂了2025年的經濟預測，經濟災難繼續造成巨大危險，這將全球衰退的可能性提高到了60％，隨著特朗普政府徵收的新關稅。

According to a report published this Thursday titled “There will be Blood”, the investment bank warns that the tariffs, which will take effect next week, could plunge not only the United States but also the entire global economy into a recession.

據投資銀行警告說，根據本週四的一份報告，標題為“將有血液”，該關稅將在下週生效，不僅可能陷入美國，而且還可能陷入整個全球經濟衰退。

JPMorgan analysts were surprised by Trump’s “extreme” economic agenda, evident through a series of heavy import taxes, notably on the occasion of Liberation Day. These taxes, aiming to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by placing costs on trading partners, have led to a revision of the probability of a global recession, increasing it from 40% to 60%.

摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析師對特朗普的“極端”經濟議程感到驚訝，這是通過一系列重型進口稅顯而易見的，特別是在解放日之際。這些稅收旨在通過將成本置於貿易夥伴上來減少美國的貿易赤字，從而修改了全球衰退的可能性，將其從40％增加到60％。

Moreover, JPMorgan estimates that these tariffs will impose significant costs on American consumers, amounting to $700 billion, which represents a tax increase equivalent to that caused by the Revenue Act of 1968, used to finance the Vietnam War.

此外，摩根大通（JPMorgan）估計，這些關稅將對美國消費者施加巨大的成本，總計7000億美元，這代表了與1968年《收入法案》有關的稅收增加，用於為越南戰爭提供資金。

This 22% increase in tariffs would be the largest since 1968, with an estimated impact of 2.4% on U.S. GDP.

自1968年以來，關稅的增長將是最大的22％，估計對美國GDP的影響為2.4％。

The negative effects are already apparent, with a loss of $3 trillion on U.S. stock markets, highlighting the immediate negative effects of these new economic policies.

負面影響已經顯而易見，美國股市損失了3萬億美元，強調了這些新的經濟政策的直接負面影響。

Added to this are the growing tensions with the Federal Reserve. Indeed, Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed, is taking a different stance, emphasizing the risks of long-term economic disruption.

除此之外，與美聯儲的緊張局勢越來越大。確實，美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）採取了不同的立場，強調了長期經濟中斷的風險。

The question remains: will these tariffs truly protect the American economy or will they worsen the effects of a global recession?

問題仍然存在：這些關稅會真正保護美國經濟，還是會加劇全球衰退的影響？

The tariffs recently imposed by Donald Trump risk provoking a 60% global recession according to JPMorgan, with deep economic consequences for the United States and their trading partners. This is why France and Europe have already mobilized to prepare a strong response.

根據摩根大通（JPMorgan）的說法，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最近對全球衰退60％的全球經濟衰退造成的關稅，對美國及其貿易夥伴造成了深遠的經濟後果。這就是為什麼法國和歐洲已經動員做出強烈反應的原因。

The situation thus remains tense, and the repercussions are already visible.

因此，情況仍然緊張，並且已經看到了影響。