摩根大通警告全球衰退的60％风险

摩根大通（JPMorgan）修订了2025年的经济预测，由于特朗普政府对新的关税，将全球衰退的可能性增加到60％。

output: Economic calamities continue to loom large as JPMorgan has revised its economic forecasts for 2025, raising the likelihood of a global recession to 60% with the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

产出：由于摩根大通（JPMorgan）修订了2025年的经济预测，经济灾难继续造成巨大危险，这将全球衰退的可能性提高到了60％，随着特朗普政府征收的新关税。

According to a report published this Thursday titled “There will be Blood”, the investment bank warns that the tariffs, which will take effect next week, could plunge not only the United States but also the entire global economy into a recession.

据投资银行警告说，根据本周四的一份报告，标题为“将有血液”，该关税将在下周生效，不仅可能陷入美国，而且还可能陷入整个全球经济衰退。

JPMorgan analysts were surprised by Trump’s “extreme” economic agenda, evident through a series of heavy import taxes, notably on the occasion of Liberation Day. These taxes, aiming to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by placing costs on trading partners, have led to a revision of the probability of a global recession, increasing it from 40% to 60%.

摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师对特朗普的“极端”经济议程感到惊讶，这是通过一系列重型进口税显而易见的，特别是在解放日之际。这些税收旨在通过将成本置于贸易伙伴上来减少美国的贸易赤字，从而修改了全球衰退的可能性，将其从40％增加到60％。

Moreover, JPMorgan estimates that these tariffs will impose significant costs on American consumers, amounting to $700 billion, which represents a tax increase equivalent to that caused by the Revenue Act of 1968, used to finance the Vietnam War.

此外，摩根大通（JPMorgan）估计，这些关税将对美国消费者施加巨大的成本，总计7000亿美元，这代表了与1968年《收入法案》有关的税收增加，用于为越南战争提供资金。

This 22% increase in tariffs would be the largest since 1968, with an estimated impact of 2.4% on U.S. GDP.

自1968年以来，关税的增长将是最大的22％，估计对美国GDP的影响为2.4％。

The negative effects are already apparent, with a loss of $3 trillion on U.S. stock markets, highlighting the immediate negative effects of these new economic policies.

负面影响已经显而易见，美国股市损失了3万亿美元，强调了这些新的经济政策的直接负面影响。

Added to this are the growing tensions with the Federal Reserve. Indeed, Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed, is taking a different stance, emphasizing the risks of long-term economic disruption.

除此之外，与美联储的紧张局势越来越大。确实，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）采取了不同的立场，强调了长期经济中断的风险。

The question remains: will these tariffs truly protect the American economy or will they worsen the effects of a global recession?

问题仍然存在：这些关税会真正保护美国经济，还是会加剧全球衰退的影响？

The tariffs recently imposed by Donald Trump risk provoking a 60% global recession according to JPMorgan, with deep economic consequences for the United States and their trading partners. This is why France and Europe have already mobilized to prepare a strong response.

根据摩根大通（JPMorgan）的说法，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最近对全球衰退60％的全球经济衰退造成的关税，对美国及其贸易伙伴造成了深远的经济后果。这就是为什么法国和欧洲已经动员做出强烈反应的原因。

The situation thus remains tense, and the repercussions are already visible.

因此，情况仍然紧张，并且已经看到了影响。