日本政府債券（JGB）產量曲線扭轉可能會溢出到比特幣（BTC）

金融市場的交易感覺就像躲避了一大堆石頭，每個人都需要保持持續的警惕和敏捷性。就像比特幣（BTC）和傳統風險資產穩定

The calculus of financial markets often feels like dodging a barrage of stones, each demanding constant vigilance and agility.

金融市場的微積分通常感覺就像躲避石頭的彈幕，每個石頭都要求持續保持警惕和敏捷性。

Just as bitcoin (BTC) and traditional risk assets stabilize after last week’s Trump tariff-led panic, unsettling movements in Japanese bonds emerge, throwing a spanner into the mix.

就像比特幣（BTC）和傳統的風險資產在上週特朗普關稅領導的恐慌，日本債券中令人不安的動作中穩定下來，使一家人陷入困境。

The yield on the 30-year Japanese government bonds rose to 2.88% early Tuesday, the highest since 2004, registering a nearly 60 basis point increase in one week, according to data source charting platform TradingView.

根據數據源圖表平台交易，日本政府債券30年的收益率上升至2004年以來最高的2.88％，在一周內增加了近60個基點。

The yield differential between the 30- and five-year bonds, representing the premium investors demand to hold ultra-long bonds over five-year bonds, has widened to a nearly two-decade high. The 10-year yield has bounced roughly 30 basis points to 1.37% in one week but stays well below the recent high of 1.59%.

30年和五年債券之間的收益差異，代表了保費投資者要求在五年債券中持有超長債券的債券，已擴大到近兩個十年的高位。 10年的收益率在一周​​內彈跳約30個基點，至1.37％，但遠低於最近的高點1.59％。

These moves in the ultra-long bonds have raised the alarm in the investor community, and rightfully so, as Japan has long been an international creditor and the top holder of the U.S. Treasury notes. As of January, Japan held $1.079 trillion in Treasuries. Besides, for almost two decades, Japan has been an anchor for low bond yields, especially across the advanced world, supporting increased risk-taking in financial markets.

超長債券中的這些舉動引起了投資者社區的警報，這是理所當然的，因為日本長期以來一直是國際債權人，也是美國財政部票據的最高持有人。截至1月，日本持有1.079萬億美元的國庫。此外，在將近二十年的時間裡，日本一直是低債券收益率的錨點，尤其是在整個先進世界中，支持金融市場的冒險增加。

So, the ongoing increase in the ultra-long JGBs could incentivize Japanese funds to sell international bond holdings and yen-funded risk-on carry trades and move capital back home. The resulting volatility in the U.S. Treasury market and the strengthening yen could add to risk aversion.

因此，超長的JGB的持續增長可能會激勵日本資金出售國際債券控股和日元資助的風險貨運貿易，並將資本轉移回家。美國財政部市場的波動性以及日元加強可能會增加風險的厭惡。

“Japanese have the largest international investment position in the world [and] they have a lot of money in various different markets. If that money starts to get repatriated to Japan, that would clearly be a negative,” Garry Evans, Chief Strategist for Global Asset Allocation at BCA Research, said Monday in an interview with CNBC.

BCA研究中全球資產分配的首席策略師Garry Evans在接受CNBC採訪時說：“日本人擁有世界上最大的國際投資地位，並且他們在各種不同的市場中都有很多錢。如果這筆錢開始遣返日本，那顯然將是負面的。”

Bitcoin, too, could come under pressure as it did in August last year when the first round of the yen carry unwind supposedly happened.

比特幣也可能承受壓力，就像去年八月的日元攜帶者不願發生的那一輪時一樣。

BTC is an asset with several appeals, ranging from emerging technology to a haven to a store of value. The narrative strengthened last week as the escalating tariff war between the Trump administration and China led to broad-based risk aversion. BTC, however, fell less than the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.

BTC是一項具有多種吸引力的資產，從新興技術到天堂再到價值存儲。上週，隨著特朗普政府與中國之間的關稅戰爭升級導致廣泛的風險規避，敘述得到了加強。但是，BTC的下降少於納斯達克和標準普爾500指數。

The relative resilience has been hailed as a sign of the cryptocurrency's evolution as low beta play by some while a hedge by others, while effectively ignoring the fact that the cryptocurrency has been trending lower since early February, likely pricing a trade war that triggered sharp losses in the U.S. stock market last week.

相對的彈性被稱為加密貨幣的演變，而其他人的樹籬則是低β的演變，同時有效地忽略了自2月初以來加密貨幣一直在趨勢下降的事實，這可能是在上週觸發了一場貿易戰爭的貿易戰爭，上週在美國股票市場上引發了巨大的損失。

So, stay alert!

所以，請保持警惕！