日本政府债券（JGB）产量曲线扭转可能会溢出到比特币（BTC）

金融市场的交易感觉就像躲避了一大堆石头，每个人都需要保持持续的警惕和敏捷性。就像比特币（BTC）和传统风险资产稳定

The calculus of financial markets often feels like dodging a barrage of stones, each demanding constant vigilance and agility.

金融市场的微积分通常感觉就像躲避石头的弹幕，每个石头都要求持续保持警惕和敏捷性。

Just as bitcoin (BTC) and traditional risk assets stabilize after last week’s Trump tariff-led panic, unsettling movements in Japanese bonds emerge, throwing a spanner into the mix.

就像比特币（BTC）和传统的风险资产在上周特朗普关税领导的恐慌，日本债券中令人不安的动作中稳定下来，使一家人陷入困境。

The yield on the 30-year Japanese government bonds rose to 2.88% early Tuesday, the highest since 2004, registering a nearly 60 basis point increase in one week, according to data source charting platform TradingView.

根据数据源图表平台交易，日本政府债券30年的收益率上升至2004年以来最高的2.88％，在一周内增加了近60个基点。

The yield differential between the 30- and five-year bonds, representing the premium investors demand to hold ultra-long bonds over five-year bonds, has widened to a nearly two-decade high. The 10-year yield has bounced roughly 30 basis points to 1.37% in one week but stays well below the recent high of 1.59%.

30年和五年债券之间的收益差异，代表了保费投资者要求在五年债券中持有超长债券的债券，已扩大到近两个十年的高位。 10年的收益率在一周​​内弹跳约30个基点，至1.37％，但远低于最近的高点1.59％。

These moves in the ultra-long bonds have raised the alarm in the investor community, and rightfully so, as Japan has long been an international creditor and the top holder of the U.S. Treasury notes. As of January, Japan held $1.079 trillion in Treasuries. Besides, for almost two decades, Japan has been an anchor for low bond yields, especially across the advanced world, supporting increased risk-taking in financial markets.

超长债券中的这些举动引起了投资者社区的警报，这是理所当然的，因为日本长期以来一直是国际债权人，也是美国财政部票据的最高持有人。截至1月，日本持有1.079万亿美元的国库。此外，在将近二十年的时间里，日本一直是低债券收益率的锚点，尤其是在整个先进世界中，支持金融市场的冒险增加。

So, the ongoing increase in the ultra-long JGBs could incentivize Japanese funds to sell international bond holdings and yen-funded risk-on carry trades and move capital back home. The resulting volatility in the U.S. Treasury market and the strengthening yen could add to risk aversion.

因此，超长的JGB的持续增长可能会激励日本资金出售国际债券控股和日元资助的风险货运贸易，并将资本转移回家。美国财政部市场的波动性以及日元加强可能会增加风险的厌恶。

“Japanese have the largest international investment position in the world [and] they have a lot of money in various different markets. If that money starts to get repatriated to Japan, that would clearly be a negative,” Garry Evans, Chief Strategist for Global Asset Allocation at BCA Research, said Monday in an interview with CNBC.

BCA研究中全球资产分配的首席策略师Garry Evans在接受CNBC采访时说：“日本人拥有世界上最大的国际投资地位，并且他们在各种不同的市场中都有很多钱。如果这笔钱开始遣返日本，那显然将是负面的。”

Bitcoin, too, could come under pressure as it did in August last year when the first round of the yen carry unwind supposedly happened.

比特币也可能承受压力，就像去年八月的日元携带者不愿发生的那一轮时一样。

BTC is an asset with several appeals, ranging from emerging technology to a haven to a store of value. The narrative strengthened last week as the escalating tariff war between the Trump administration and China led to broad-based risk aversion. BTC, however, fell less than the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.

BTC是一项具有多种吸引力的资产，从新兴技术到天堂再到价值存储。上周，随着特朗普政府与中国之间的关税战争升级导致广泛的风险规避，叙述得到了加强。但是，BTC的下降少于纳斯达克和标准普尔500指数。

The relative resilience has been hailed as a sign of the cryptocurrency's evolution as low beta play by some while a hedge by others, while effectively ignoring the fact that the cryptocurrency has been trending lower since early February, likely pricing a trade war that triggered sharp losses in the U.S. stock market last week.

相对的弹性被称为加密货币的演变，而其他人的树篱则是低β的演变，同时有效地忽略了自2月初以来加密货币一直在趋势下降的事实，这可能是在上周触发了一场贸易战争的贸易战争，上周在美国股票市场上引发了巨大的损失。

So, stay alert!

所以，请保持警惕！