灰階的費用賭博：對比特幣的押注激增以抵銷資金外流

Grayscale 的比特幣現貨 ETF 因其高額費用而受到批評，據信這是一種阻止持有者在比特幣升值預期中套現的策略。自推出以來，該 ETF 的每日資金流出量已超過 140 億美元，分析師推測 Grayscale 可能押注於比特幣的增長以抵消資金流出，而不是降低費用來遏制資金流出。

Grayscale's High Fees: A Strategic Gamble to Retain Investors and Anticipate Bitcoin's Rise

灰階的高額費用：留住投資者並預測比特幣上漲的策略賭博

Grayscale's decision to maintain elevated fees for its spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), has sparked speculation that the asset manager is wagering on Bitcoin's continued price appreciation to offset outflows and preserve its revenue stream.

灰階決定維持其現貨比特幣（BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）灰階比特幣信託（GBTC）的較高費用，引發了人們的猜測，即該資產管理公司正在押注比特幣價格持續上漲，以抵銷資金外流並保留其收入流。

Outflows and Fee Concerns

資金流出和費用擔憂

GBTC has experienced persistent daily outflows since its launch on January 11, with redemptions totaling over $14 billion as of March 25. Industry observers have attributed this exodus to GBTC's high fees, which stand at 1.5% per year, notably higher than the average 0.30% fee charged by other spot Bitcoin ETFs.

自1 月11 日推出以來，GBTC 每天都有持續的資金流出，截至3 月25 日，贖回總額超過140 億美元。產業觀察家將資金外流歸因於GBTC 的高額費用，每年1.5 %，明顯高於平均0.30%其他現貨比特幣 ETF 所收取的費用。

Reasons for Maintaining High Fees

維持高額費用的原因

Market analysts have proposed two potential explanations for Grayscale's reluctance to lower its fees. Firstly, Grayscale may believe that its holders are unlikely to redeem their shares due to the "tax bill" they would incur upon selling GBTC. The asset manager's analysis suggests that holders are "stuck" because the potential tax liability outweighs the benefits of leaving the fund.

市場分析師對灰階不願降低費用提出了兩種可能的解釋。首先，灰階可能認為其持有者不太可能贖回其股票，因為出售 GBTC 會產生「稅單」。資產管理公司的分析表明，持有人“陷入困境”，因為潛在的納稅義務超過了離開基金的好處。

Secondly, Grayscale may be betting that Bitcoin's price will surge significantly in the coming years, to the extent that the revenue generated from the increased asset under management (AUM) will offset the outflows caused by the high fees.

其次，灰階可能押注比特幣的價格將在未來幾年大幅飆升，以至於管理資產（AUM）增加所產生的收入將抵消高額費用造成的資金外流。

Risks of the High-Fee Strategy

高收費策略的風險

While Grayscale's strategy may prove successful if Bitcoin's price rises as anticipated, it also carries potential risks. If Bitcoin's price falls, the high fees could exacerbate the outflows as investors seek lower-cost alternatives or decide to liquidate their positions.

雖然如果比特幣價格如預期上漲，灰階的策略可能會成功，但它也存在潛在風險。如果比特幣價格下跌，高額費用可能會加劇資金外流，因為投資者會尋求成本更低的替代品或決定清算其部位。

Analysts' Perspectives

分析師的觀點

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes that GBTC may experience ongoing outflows indefinitely, with the redemption process slowing down gradually over time. He notes that GBTC's revenue will remain stable if Bitcoin's price continues to rise, despite the outflows.

彭博 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 認為，GBTC 可能會無限期地經歷持續流出，贖回過程隨著時間的推移逐漸放緩。他指出，如果比特幣價格持續上漲，儘管有資金外流，GBTC 的收入仍將保持穩定。

However, United States spot Bitcoin ETFs were only approved after Grayscale's successful lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), compelling the regulator to consider Grayscale's proposal to convert GBTC into an ETF. Some analysts question why Grayscale would invest resources in this legal battle only to implement a strategy that could result in the fund's gradual decline.

然而，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 是在 Grayscale 成功起訴美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 後才獲得批准，迫使監管機構考慮 Grayscale 將 GBTC 轉換為 ETF 的提議。一些分析師質疑為什麼灰階會在這場法律訴訟中投入資源只是為了實施可能導致基金逐漸下跌的策略。

Speculation on Grayscale's Objectives

對灰階目標的猜測

One proposed explanation for Grayscale's actions is that the company foresaw that even if GBTC experiences outflows, the hype surrounding Bitcoin ETFs could drive up BTC's price enough to compensate for the losses and stabilize Grayscale's AUM.

對 Grayscale 行動的一種擬議解釋是，該公司預見到，即使 GBTC 出現資金外流，圍繞比特幣 ETF 的炒作也可能會推高 BTC 的價格，足以彌補損失並穩定 Grayscale 的 AUM。

Another possible motive suggested by Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart is Grayscale's desire to assist its bankrupt affiliate, crypto lender Genesis. Seyffart postulates that Grayscale's high fees may have been motivated by an attempt to facilitate Genesis's exit from positions related to GBTC shares used as collateral for loans made by Gemini Earn users.

彭博 ETF 分析師 James Seyffart 提出的另一個可能動機是 Grayscale 希望協助其破產的附屬機構加密貨幣貸款機構 Genesis。 Seyffart 推測，Grayscale 收取高額費用可能是為了幫助 Genesis 退出與 GBTC 股票相關的頭寸，這些股票用作 Gemini Earn 用戶貸款的抵押品。

Conclusion

結論

Grayscale's high fees for GBTC continue to be a subject of debate and speculation. While the asset manager's strategy may be driven by a belief in Bitcoin's future appreciation, it also carries potential risks. Whether Grayscale's gamble on high fees and an anticipated Bitcoin price surge will prove successful remains to be seen.

Grayscale 對 GBTC 的高額費用仍然是爭論和猜測的話題。雖然資產管理公司的策略可能是出於對比特幣未來升值的信念，但它也存在潛在風險。灰度對高額費用和預期比特幣價格飆升的賭博是否會成功還有待觀察。